Outlook for the Global Economy and Oil Demand

Christof Rühl, BP

The context of global economic stability and growth are considered in relation to the US, China, Germany, Japan and the UK. The link between fiscal deficits and their threat to stability and growth are examined, showing trends in their percentage of GDP for 2008 to 2010. In respect to oil prices and demand, national and global comparisons suggest that demand is recovering. Drivers for future oil price, in the medium term, relate in part to the interplay between OPEC discipline and demand recovery, with these driving price over the medium term. Analysis of production over time, suggests that without further OPEC action, inventories will remain above the five year range for now.

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