Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency
An overview of the 2010 WEO Reference Scenario to 2030 is provided, discussing: changes in primary energy demand; upstream oil and gas capital expenditures; oil production, issues and prices; and natural gas supply, transportation, prices and market trends. The 450 Scenario is also described in respect to how demand by fuel type needs to change and the abatement of CO2 emissions; along with some key facts relating to the EU, China and the Copenhagen Accord. Some key findings include: the financial crisis has halted the rise in global energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume, based on current policies; oil investment has fallen sharply, posing questions on medium term supply; a sizable glut of natural gas is looming; a 450 path will require massive investments but would bring substantial benefits; natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future; and the Copenhagen Accord takes significant steps forward on international climate policy but is not sufficient to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees.
Tags: BRICS, CCS, China, Climate change, CO2, Consumption, Electricity generation, Emissions, Energy systems modelling, EU, Export, Fatih Birol, Fossil fuels, Fuel poverty, GDP, Global, IEA, Import, LNG, Natural gas, OECD, Oil markets, OPEC, Power generation, Pricing, Production capacity, Resources, Supply demand balance, Unconventional gas, Volatility, world energy outlook