Downloads / security and sustainability

Shell’s World Energy Mode

Mr Martin Haigh, Shell  Every five years or so, Shell conducts a major scenario study to look at alternative futures for the world’s energy system.  Over the last three years, the Scenario Team at Shell has developed a completely new World Energy Model (WEM).  It is the most comprehensive model of the world’s supply and demand for energy that Shell has ever developed.  It is the first model, at a global level, to integrate economic evidence on aggregate demand for energy and the choices influencing the energy mix, together with bottom-up research on the availability, access and speed of development of different resources and technologies.  The purpose of this model is to assess how different drivers could affect a transition to a substantially different energy system over the long-term (five decades).  And its scope is wide: all energy sources, all sectors of the economy, all foreseeable energy technologies, and the whole world at a detailed country level.  The model has been integral to the development of Shell’s new energy scenarios to 2050, Scramble and Blueprints, and provided the detailed quantification Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

To what extent can non-price/income instruments influence the demand for energy?: A longitudinal state-space analysis of the UEDT from a panel of 17 OECD countries.

Mr David Broadstock, Surrey Energy Economics Centre   The demand for energy is not simply a function of price and income, but can be shown in many cases to be a function also of the underlying energy demand trend (UEDT). The UEDT captures behavioural responses to non-fiscal instruments, including technological change, but also encapsulating attitudinal responses/changes in demand that might result for instance from increased public awareness of how environmentally damaging energy use can be. This study estimates a longitudinal state-space dynamic econometric model for the aggregate demand functions of a sample of 17 OECD countries for the period 1960-2005. This approach to modelling will enable UEDT’s to be observed for each of the countries, as well as the normal price and income elasticities. The model results will provide an indication of the extent to which price/income based instruments can be used to reduce the demand for energy, as well as indicating the extent to which consumers have responded to non-price/income instruments. As far as is known this will be the first example in which state space methods have been Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

BERR Energy Group’s Long Term Scenarios and analysis underpinning the 2008 Nuclear White Paper

Mr Stephen Green, BERR  The effects of today’s energy policy will be seen long into the future. BERR Energy Group Scenarios has developed scenarios to aid analysis of the robustness of policy to future changes within the framework of some plausible alternative futures.  This part of the paper will give an overview of the scenario development, the scenarios themselves and a short account of how they have been used to aid thinking about policy within the department. The second part of the paper would illustrate developments in policy on nuclear power from the 2003 Energy White Paper to the present.  The analysis for the 2008 Nuclear White Paper was underpinned by a detailed cost-benefit analysis taking into account the impact on carbon dioxide emissions and energy security of supply and comparing nuclear with fossil fuel generation. Analysis was also undertaken using the MARKAL energy model to illustrate the implications of including or excluding nuclear in the long-term electricity generation mix.  It would also explain the range of options which exist to abate emissions of carbon dioxide and how we undertake Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

UK Renewable Heat Policy: Lessons from Renewable Electricity Policy

Peter M. Connor  University of Exeter According to figures presented by the UK’s Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) in 2007, the demand for heat accounts for almost half of all UK energy consumption, and for 79% of non-transport related energy consumption. This translates to around 47% of UK CO2 emissions, making heating a major contributor to the UK’s climate change emissions. Despite this, the focus for renewable energy policy in the UK, as well as in the large majority of other nations which have developed policy, has tended to focus, often exclusively, on electrical generation. While there may be a number of explanations for this, a switch to more sustainable sources of heat offers many of the same advantages with regard to reduced environmental impact, increased security of supply and all he other benefits that go with renewable electrical generation. This paper considers the particular needs of RES-H technologies in terms of the policy instruments which might best suit their growth. It considers what lessons might be learned from experience with RES-E whilst also emphasising the key Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

Transition pathways for a low carbon energy system in the UK: assessing the compatibility of large-scale and small-scale options

Dr Tim Foxon, University of Leeds  This paper will describe initial work on transition pathways for a low carbon energy system in the UK, being pursued in a major new research project. The project is a collaboration between leading UK engineers, social scientists and policy analysts, supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the energy company E.ON UK. The project aims to (a) to learn from past transitions to help explore future transitions and what might enable or avoid them; (b) to design and evaluate transition pathways towards alternative socio-technical energy systems and infrastructures for a low carbon future; and (c) to understand and where appropriate model the changing roles, influences and opportunities of large and small ‘actors’ in the dynamics of transitions. The paper will describe the development of outline transition pathways and the approach to assessing these through electricity network modelling and participatory interviews with stakeholders and end-users. Pathways being investigated include (1) those focussing on large-scale centralised low-carbon supply-side options, with greater roles for any or all of renewables, nuclear and fossil Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

Building Market Transformation: transforming markets from the inside

Mark Hinnells, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Buildings account for 47% of UK carbon emissions. Building Market Transformation is exploring how markets could be transformed to achieve large-scale reductions in carbon emissions from both residential and non-residential buildings (eg as much as 80% by 2050). For many years, policy has been evolutionary and has allowed businesses and business models to remain broadly unaltered. However, policy is now arguably becoming revolutionary and eliciting exciting unexpected and unpredicted responses from business. The paper several examples of how business models may fracture and then new ones emerge as a result of changed policy. There are also likely to be new ways of learning in response to policy, eg using internet based communities to build partnerships and share learning much faster than through conventional routes. The author, as well as being a researcher at Oxford is a partner in a business incubator in the process of developing four low carbon businesses, each of which has been given the opportunity to emerge because of changed policy and market conditions. The paper is based on Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

Regulating energy suppliers to deliver energy demand reduction

Dr Nick Eyre, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford  Regulation of energy companies to provide energy efficiency improvements for their customers has a long history, but the UK has led the way in using energy efficiency obligations on energy suppliers to households in fully liberalised markets through the Energy Efficiency Commitment (EEC), now renamed the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target (CERT).  This has increased deployment of cost effective energy efficiency technologies and therefore reduced energy demand growth. EEC is widely seen in the UK as a successful policy and has influenced recent developments in other countries.  However, it has limitations.  The obligation structure does not allow actors other than energy suppliers to own EEC credits, and therefore has not generated a transparent market in energy efficiency.  Mechanisms that allow removal of the volume sales driver for energy suppliers in regulated monopoly markets are not replicable in liberalised markets.  And energy efficiency obligations do not seek to address the growing demand for energy services.  So EEC has not fundamentally changed energy supplier business models, nor has it delivered incentives to consumers to Read more…

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Regulating-energy-demand-to-deliver-energy-demand-reduction-paper.pdf 115.3 KB
25th
Sep
2008

Effectiveness and economic efficiency of support mechanisms for private sector investment in renewable generation technologies

Mr Jostein Kristensen  The recent proposal for a Renewables Directive  from the European Commission has set a target on the UK to source 15% of total energy consumption from renewable sources. This is likely to require the development of a large amount of additional UK renewable electricity generation capacity using a variety of technologies. Some of these technologies—in particular, certain offshore generation technologies—have yet to be proven commercially viable. This is the case even with the financial supports provided in the UK, which include the Renewable Obligation and the associated tradeable Renewable Obligation Certificates. We present recent and on-going research by Oxera to assess whether current UK policies are likely to be successful in bringing forth sufficient renewable generation capacity by the private sector, and whether alternative policies (some seen elsewhere in the EU) are likely to be more effective, efficient, and/or robust. Based on a dynamic investment model, several scenarios of UK renewable generation deployment are shown, including an economic assessment of the efficiency of existing and potential price or quantity policy levers. In addition, the effectiveness of schemes Read more…

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Renewing-the-renewables-obligation-pres.pdf 237.59 KB
25th
Sep
2008

Energy-capital substitution and the rebound effect

Mr Steve Sorrell, Sussex Energy Group, SPRU, University of Sussex  A long-standing controversy within energy economics is whether energy and capital may be considered as ‘substitutes’ or ‘complements’. Despite more than a hundred empirical studies over the last 30 years, there is little sign of consensus on this topic. The issue is also relevant to another long-standing controversy in energy economics, namely the size of any ‘rebound effect’ from improved energy efficiency. Several authors have suggested that: “the greater the ease of substitution between energy and other factors of production, the larger will be the rebound effect.” This paper provides an overview of the literature on energy-capital (E-K) substitution and highlights the implications of this for the rebound effect. It clarifies some important theoretical and methodological issues relevant to estimating E-K substitution and highlights a number of difficulties in how these studies have been interpreted. It argues that the relationship between E-K substitution and the rebound effect is more complex than above statement suggests. The paper first clarifies the different definitions of the ‘elasticity of substitution’ and shows how the Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

Energy security and climate change: Conflicting or complementary energy policy objectives?

Gordon MacKerron Raphael Sauter University of Sussex SPRU     Energy security and climate change have become core energy policy objectives. Despite arising conflicts both objectives have predominantly been framed as complementary in the policy debate. In the context of energy security potential policy trade-offs have mostly been discussed in relation to market liberalisation objectives and sufficient incentives for new investments. On the other hand, climate change policies and their costs have been discussed against economic competitiveness, growth and employment while often neglecting indirect benefits. The Stern report contributed to a certain shift in this perspective by highlighting the potential societal costs if no or insufficient action against rising GHG emissions is taken. The proposed paper aims to provide a better understanding of the potential trade-offs and synergies between energy security and climate protection as core energy policy objectives. For this purpose the paper will first present a theoretical and conceptual discussion of energy security and climate change policies and their potential linkages. Particular attention will be paid to trade-offs between climate adaptation and energy security policies which has been Read more…

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Energy-security-and-climate-change-conflicting-or-complementary-energy-policy-objectives-paper.pdf 65.3 KB
25th
Sep
2008

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