Peter Parsons, National Grid
Considers the outlook for gas and electricity, and the lessons that have been learnt from the previous winter. This is covered in respect to: Met Office weather forecast and winter temperatures; gas (demand, supply and cold weather analysis); and electricity (assumptions and winter analysis). It is suggested that the basis for gas and electricity demand will be similar to the previous winter. For gas: there is a high dependency on weather; demand uncertainties will continue, due to the impact of gas prices, efficiency measures, LCPD, availability of generating plant; that for supply there is uncertainty for all imports as a result of Norway and its continental priorities and LNG because of global market competition and commissioning of new plant; finally it is recognised that severe, or a prolonged period of, cold weather could necessitate a demand response. For electricity, power generation will be subject to plant availability and the impact of LCPD, although there is an assumption that coal will be used for base load unless prices lead to fuel switching. Also it is anticipated that there will be adequate generation to meet demand but subject to credible risks. It is highlighted that there are numerous gas / electricity interactions possible and that ‘events’ for both gas and electricity do happen.