UK Gas and Electricity Supplies: A review of the winter 2003-04

John Greasley and Simon Griew, National Grid Transco

Sets out the pre-winter view from Grid; in respect to gas covering: transportation requirements; gas forecasts; plant mothballing status; changes to market rules; gas/electricity interactions; CCGT interruptions; and proposals to mitigate negative impacts. Consideration is also given to electricity covering: plant margins; market signals; and the positive and negative key uncertainties going into winter including generation and interconnector availability. This is considered against winter demand based on temperature profile and average weekly ACS demand. The interactions between gas and electricity are discussed in respect to: GB gas-fired power stations; interruptible arrangements; and the potential for firm CCGTs to arbitrage. What happened to gas is also considered, covering Beach and Interconnector deliveries and firm demand-side management. A range of issues looking forward for winter gas and electricity supply are discussed.

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