2010 Winter Outlook and a future view

Peter Parsons, National Grid

The winter outlook for 2010/11 is presented for gas and electricity, in respect to weather forecasts, gas demand and supply, electricity demand and supply, whilst also considering supply issues and security of supply. An overview of the mechanisms for meeting the UK environmental targets and Grid’s future scenarios is also provided. In respect to gas, it is highlighted that: the peak day demand forecast is higher than last year; forecast non storage supplies are higher than last year with potential upsides in LNG; storage deliverability is reduced due to less LNG and a review of the actual deliverability from all storage sites; forecast spreads between gas or coal for base load is very small. For electricity, the average Cold Spell Demand forecast is the same as last year and the notified and assumed generation availability is also similar, although there is a large potential upside in new CCGT commissioning during the winter. Based on this and even with uncertainties, the forecast indicates the winter should be manageable, subject to events. In terms of supply issues key factors will be the role of Russia, what happens within the LNG market and how the development of shale gas proceeds. For security of supply, a number of issues that have emerged over previous winters are highlighted including: the availability of LNG; the relationship between Russia and Ukraine; and Norwegian Outages.

Categories: , , , ,

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2010 Winter Outlook and a future view.pdf 1.44 MB

Comments are closed.

Downloads Archive

	            SELECT YEAR(post_date) AS `year`, MONTH(post_date) AS `month`, count(ID) as posts FROM wp_posts WHERE post_type = 'resources' AND post_parent = 0 AND post_status = 'publish' GROUP BY YEAR(post_date), MONTH(post_date) ORDER BY post_date DESC LIMIT 100	        
	            Array
(
    [0] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2020
            [month] => 7
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [1] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2020
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [2] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2020
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [3] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2020
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [4] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [5] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [6] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 10
        )

    [7] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [8] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [9] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [10] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [11] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [12] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [13] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [14] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 53
        )

    [15] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [16] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [17] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [18] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [19] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 7
        )

    [20] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [21] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [22] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [23] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [24] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [25] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [26] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 51
        )

    [27] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 7
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [28] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [29] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [30] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [31] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [32] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [33] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [34] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 8
        )

    [35] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [36] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [37] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [38] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [39] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [40] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [41] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 6
        )

    [42] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 51
        )

    [43] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [44] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [45] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [46] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [47] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [48] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [49] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [50] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 9
        )

    [51] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 12
        )

    [52] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 7
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [53] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [54] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [55] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [56] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [57] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [58] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 6
        )

    [59] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 57
        )

    [60] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [61] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [62] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [63] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [64] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [65] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [66] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 10
        )

    [67] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [68] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [69] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [70] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2010
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [71] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2010
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 49
        )

    [72] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2010
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [73] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2010
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [74] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [75] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [76] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 13
        )

    [77] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [78] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [79] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [80] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [81] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [82] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 24
        )

    [83] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [84] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [85] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 12
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [86] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [87] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [88] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 10
        )

    [89] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [90] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [91] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [92] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2006
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [93] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2006
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 31
        )

    [94] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2006
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [95] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2006
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [96] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2004
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

)

Memberships

Become a member

For priority access to our events & gain access to our downloadable resources

Email updates

Sign up

To receive email updates about our forthcoming events and news please sign up here.

Why attend a BIEE Conference?