Downloads / Electricity generation

Winter Gas Outlook Nat Grid 2011

Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides a detailed overview in respect to gas, covering: fuel prices; relative power economics; demand; demand forecasts; peak demand; supply forecasts from UKCS, interconnectors and LNG; and storage capacity. For electricity it is apparent that demand forecasts uncertainty has increased, and details are provided on: assumed availability of generators and interconnectors; generation and demand forecasts and outturns; normal demand and notified generation availability; 1 in 20 demand and assumed generation availability. In respect to the outlook for 2011/12 for gas: forward winter fuel prices strongly favour coal to be base load generation, providing a potential upside to gas demand; weather corrected gas demand forecast will be similar to last winter, though peak demand forecast is lower due to power generation assumptions; forecast non-storage supplies are similar to last winter with lower UKCS being offset by more LNG, albeit LNG supplies are subject to some uncertainties; and storage levels similar to last winter, but should increase in the winter when new facilities are commissioned. For electricity the outlook suggests that: the average Cold Spell Demand forecast will Read more…

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10th
Oct
2011

World Energy Outlook – A Glimpse into the Future of Energy

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview and insights into the 2010 WEO. It is suggested that recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well short of what is needed for a secure and sustainable energy future. In respect to oil, growing demand for mobility in emerging economies is driving up use, production is shifting away from crude and oil will come from fewer producers; the view is that the age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case. Gas is seen as playing a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs and it is asked whether we may be entering a golden age for gas. It is also recognised that the stronger penetration of natural gas could have profound implications for energy markets and the environment. Although renewables are entering the mainstream, long-term support is needed to boost their competitiveness. Detailed information is provided on climate change and emission reductions, with a recognition that a lack of ambition in Copenhagen/Cancun has increased the Read more…

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World Energy Outlook A glimpse into the future of energy.pdf 539.08 KB
17th
Feb
2011

Where Next for US Policy on CO2 and Climate Issues?

David Robinson, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and The Brattle Group Provides an overview of recent changes to US policy on climate change. This is discussed in respect to the climate change “alliance” that exists between the EU and US. The contents, process and compromises made in trying to pass recent US climate legislation are set out, with a view that the prospects for any climate change legislation are now dim, with even a risk of pull back at a state level, such as within California. The implications for inaction both within the US and globally are discussed. In respect to coal-based power, proposals from the EPA may result in a bipartisan deal, although this will require support from the coal-based states, so a deal with the power sector will be key. If this fails it is highlighted that the US will have no legislation for two plus years and that this will hurt US green tech, trade and UNFCCC negotiations. As such it is suggested that the EU should rethink its alliances and consider closer relations with China.

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Where next for US policy on CO2 and Climate Issues 2010.pdf 142.65 KB
18th
Oct
2010

2010 Winter Outlook and a future view

Peter Parsons, National Grid The winter outlook for 2010/11 is presented for gas and electricity, in respect to weather forecasts, gas demand and supply, electricity demand and supply, whilst also considering supply issues and security of supply. An overview of the mechanisms for meeting the UK environmental targets and Grid’s future scenarios is also provided. In respect to gas, it is highlighted that: the peak day demand forecast is higher than last year; forecast non storage supplies are higher than last year with potential upsides in LNG; storage deliverability is reduced due to less LNG and a review of the actual deliverability from all storage sites; forecast spreads between gas or coal for base load is very small. For electricity, the average Cold Spell Demand forecast is the same as last year and the notified and assumed generation availability is also similar, although there is a large potential upside in new CCGT commissioning during the winter. Based on this and even with uncertainties, the forecast indicates the winter should be manageable, subject to events. In terms of supply issues key Read more…

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2010 Winter Outlook and a future view.pdf 1.44 MB
8th
Oct
2010

Climate policy uncertainty and investment behaviour: Evidence from small hydropower plants

Dr Oecon Kristin Linnerud, Cicero In the coming years, Europe will need more electric power from renewable sources to meet our greenhouse gas and renewable targets. However, market and climate policy uncertainty affecting project cash flows could make investors hesitate to build new capacity unless profitability is significant. This follows from real option theory. Whether investors behave in accordance with this theory, is an empirical question. In Norway there are many good sites for small hydropower. Having access to such a site is viewed as holding a real option to invest. Using data from 225 small hydropower projects we study the investment behaviour of the developers.  More specifically, we test whether investments did actually occur at the optimal point in time predicted by an option-based model. This is tested against the alternative hypothesis: that investments are made when the discounted value of future cash flows are equal to or exceeds investment outlays. Our investment models include two stochastic variables: wholesale electricity prices and green certificate prices. We calculate trigger levels for the sum of these prices, and compare these with Read more…

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Climate policy uncertainty and investment behaviour - Presentation.pdf 756.55 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Quantifying Exports and Minimising Curtailment: From 20% to 50% Wind Penetration in Denmark

Mr Andrew Smith, London Analytics Denmark is frequently held up as a case study of a grid successfully integrating a wind penetration of 20%. Conversely, claims are made that Denmark exports “most” or “almost all” of the electricity generated by its wind turbines, although more specific claims refer to 57%, 1% or 0.1% of wind power being exported. Analysing hourly power data from the last ten years, and price data from 2006-2010, this paper critiques the methods behind each of these claims, and compares them to known features of electricity markets. Although electrons do not carry labels of origin, and a method to assign exports to specific generation sources will carry some subjectivity, it is possible to put some meaningful limits on such claims about exports. Based on that analysis, the paper then assesses the likely impact on exports of Denmark’s proposal to move to 50% wind penetration. Mixed-economy market structures and infrastructure options are set out that will enable such penetrations to be manageable, while minimising need for curtailment of wind production, and without increasing the likelihood of loss Read more…

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Quantifying Exports and Minimising Curtailment - Paper.pdf 791.49 KBQuantifying Exports and Minimising Curtailment - Presentation.pdf 236.31 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Funding nuclear power and radioactive waste

Professor Gordon MacKerron, SPRU, University of Sussex The UK Government expects substantial new investment in nuclear power as part of its approach to reducing carbon emissions and improving energy security.  It argues that it will not subsidise nuclear power but that it is taking \’facilitative actions\’ to smooth the path to substantial nuclear investment.  Achieving new nuclear investment will require investors to believe that the balance between risk and expected reward is sufficiently positive for them to commit very large sums.  (If each of the designated ten future nuclear sites were to have one reactor each located on them, the total addition to capacity would be c. 16,000 MW at a capital cost that would almost certainly exceed £20 bn.,  possibly by a large margin.) This paper examines the various commercial risks to which nuclear power is subject and concentrates on the degree of comfort that current plans for radioactive waste management will offer investors.  This analysis will examine both current \’physical\’ plans e.g. the need for operators to provide for around 160 years of on-site storage for spent nuclear Read more…

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Funding nuclear power and radioactive waste - Presentation.pdf 305.39 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen IEA

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency An overview of the 2010 WEO Reference Scenario to 2030 is provided, discussing: changes in primary energy demand; upstream oil and gas capital expenditures; oil production, issues and prices; and natural gas supply, transportation, prices and market trends. The 450 Scenario is also described in respect to how demand by fuel type needs to change and the abatement of CO2 emissions; along with some key facts relating to the EU, China and the Copenhagen Accord. Some key findings include: the financial crisis has halted the rise in global energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume, based on current policies; oil investment has fallen sharply, posing questions on medium term supply; a sizable glut of natural gas is looming; a 450 path will require massive investments but would bring substantial benefits; natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future; and the Copenhagen Accord takes significant steps forward on international climate policy but is not sufficient to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees.

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World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen.pdf 2.79 MB
18th
Mar
2010

Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2009

Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides an overview of what happened in the previous winter, before considering the outlook for 2009/10. During the previous winter, there were periods of cold weather lasting around two weeks, but overall the winter was average; although one impact of the January cold snap was that it drove UK gas demand to near record levels. There were also: widespread gas supply disruptions across Europe in January as a consequence of Russia/Ukraine disputes; unprecedented IUK winter export flows; and higher demands met through significant flows from UK storage facilities at an early stage of the winter period, leading to concerns over the UK’s resilience to a late winter supply shock or prolonged period of cold weather. However, the impact of the economic recession also lowered overall demand. Looking forward to the 2009/10 winter, it is anticipated that this will be milder than the previous year, with a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter. Forecast gas demand (weather corrected) is 2.5% lower, on top of 6% reduction last winter, whilst forecast non storage supply is similar Read more…

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Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2009.pdf 1.19 MB
8th
Oct
2009

Building a Low Carbon Economy

David Kennedy, The Committee on Climate Change Provides a recap of the UK’s Intended and Interim carbon budgets to 2020 and the opportunities for emission reductions by sector covering: power; residential buildings; non-residential buildings and industry; transport; and agriculture. The macroeconomic impacts of the carbon budgets and the impacts of the recession are set out in respect to GDP against cost, emissions, carbon price and financing. The strategy for meeting the carbon budgets includes a requirement to strengthen key policies in respect to: residential buildings by overcoming known barriers (e.g. lack of information, hassle, procrastination and engagement); power markets by addressing the risks for private and social players under the current market arrangements; electric cars through the provision of interim price support for charging, information, and addressing planning barriers.

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Building a Low Carbon Economy 2009.pdf 448.3 KB
21st
Sep
2009

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