Winter Gas Outlook Nat Grid 2011
Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides a detailed overview in respect to gas, covering: fuel prices; relative power economics; demand; demand forecasts; peak demand; supply forecasts from UKCS, interconnectors and LNG; and storage capacity. For electricity it is apparent that demand forecasts uncertainty has increased, and details are provided on: assumed availability of generators and interconnectors; generation and demand forecasts and outturns; normal demand and notified generation availability; 1 in 20 demand and assumed generation availability. In respect to the outlook for 2011/12 for gas: forward winter fuel prices strongly favour coal to be base load generation, providing a potential upside to gas demand; weather corrected gas demand forecast will be similar to last winter, though peak demand forecast is lower due to power generation assumptions; forecast non-storage supplies are similar to last winter with lower UKCS being offset by more LNG, albeit LNG supplies are subject to some uncertainties; and storage levels similar to last winter, but should increase in the winter when new facilities are commissioned. For electricity the outlook suggests that: the average Cold Spell Demand forecast will Read more…
Categories: Electricity and nuclear, Energy demand, Gas, Meetings
Tags: Electricity generation, Exports, Fossil fuels, Gas outlook, Imports, Interconnectors, LNG, National Grid, Natural gas, Retail market, Storage, Supply demand balance, UK, Wholesale market
Oct
2011