Jim Watson, SPRU University of Sussex
Global trends from IEA show that: energy demand could increase by 40% by 2030; fossil fuel use will continue to be dominant; CO2 emissions will continue to rise; and fossil fuel prices will continue to increase (all based on a BAU scenario). Many of the key drivers to these changes are a result of increased demand within Asia, the Middle East and from other non-OECD countries. Data on China shows a rapidly rising demand for energy, with associated rising emissions, although energy intensity is falling and access to electricity is increasing. Their policy approach includes targets to reduce energy intensity, increase the use of renewables and nuclear power, and provide stimulus funds for cleaner technologies and energy efficiency. In respect to industrial policy, for wind, China and India are developing approaches to catch up through industrial development and technology adoption, using integrated approaches to policy and regulation, R&D support and the use of national and global learning networks. Similar approaches are also being used to support Korean steel. In terms of learning from these developments, it is difficult to transfer policy lessons from one country to another, but there are some clear lessons, such as having a clear link between industrial policy and energy policy, using support policies that sit within global markets and supply chains.