BERR Energy Group’s Long Term Scenarios and analysis underpinning the 2008 Nuclear White Paper

Mr Stephen Green, BERR

 The effects of today’s energy policy will be seen long into the future. BERR Energy Group Scenarios has developed scenarios to aid analysis of the robustness of policy to future changes within the framework of some plausible alternative futures.  This part of the paper will give an overview of the scenario development, the scenarios themselves and a short account of how they have been used to aid thinking about policy within the department.

The second part of the paper would illustrate developments in policy on nuclear power from the 2003 Energy White Paper to the present.  The analysis for the 2008 Nuclear White Paper was underpinned by a detailed cost-benefit analysis taking into account the impact on carbon dioxide emissions and energy security of supply and comparing nuclear with fossil fuel generation.

Analysis was also undertaken using the MARKAL energy model to illustrate the implications of including or excluding nuclear in the long-term electricity generation mix.  It would also explain the range of options which exist to abate emissions of carbon dioxide and how we undertake consistent appraisal of these options across government.

The paper and presentation would therefore illustrate how we use scenario analysis as a guide to policymaking as well as providing an example of how it was used as part of the analysis underpinning the Nuclear White Paper.

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