Downloads / Natural gas

European Gas Contracts Will Oil Indexation persist OIES 2011

Howard Rogers, OIES Natural Gas Programme In the context of European gas markets and international LNG markets, a number of issues are highlighted, covering: Europe’s hybrid gas market; the impact of gas gluts; continental gas market evolution; and midstream exposure. An overview of the original rationale for indexing gas prices to oil prices is provided, in respect to long term contracts and the way that major players (sellers and buyers) have worked with them. It is suggested that indexing will start to shift towards a more hub-based approach to pricing, but it will take several years before new pricing and contractual frameworks become established, during which there are likely to be some major problems for existing long term contracts.

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European Gas Contracts Will Oil Indexation persist OIES 2011.pdf 948.47 KB
10th
Oct
2011

Winter Gas Outlook Nat Grid 2011

Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides a detailed overview in respect to gas, covering: fuel prices; relative power economics; demand; demand forecasts; peak demand; supply forecasts from UKCS, interconnectors and LNG; and storage capacity. For electricity it is apparent that demand forecasts uncertainty has increased, and details are provided on: assumed availability of generators and interconnectors; generation and demand forecasts and outturns; normal demand and notified generation availability; 1 in 20 demand and assumed generation availability. In respect to the outlook for 2011/12 for gas: forward winter fuel prices strongly favour coal to be base load generation, providing a potential upside to gas demand; weather corrected gas demand forecast will be similar to last winter, though peak demand forecast is lower due to power generation assumptions; forecast non-storage supplies are similar to last winter with lower UKCS being offset by more LNG, albeit LNG supplies are subject to some uncertainties; and storage levels similar to last winter, but should increase in the winter when new facilities are commissioned. For electricity the outlook suggests that: the average Cold Spell Demand forecast will Read more…

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10th
Oct
2011

Pathways to a low carbon economy – the role of natural gas and biofuels

Ben Taylor, Shell To 2050 there is an expectation of rising energy demand, increasing supply pressure and growing impacts from climate change. Shell’s response to the challenge is based on supplying more natural gas and biofuels, progressing CCS and improving the energy efficiency of their operations. Gas and biofuels are seen as essential components to a low carbon economy. Gas has both short and long-term advantages for the energy mix: coal to gas switching is the quickest and cheapest way to meet near term emission reduction targets; it is the cheapest and most flexible complementary supply to intermittent renewables; and with CCS is part of a long term solution.  In respect to the growing demand for mobility, for both passengers and freight, there is no single solution, but vehicle efficiency and lower CO2 liquid fuels, particularly biofuels will play important roles.

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Pathways to a low carbon economy the role of natural gas and biofuels - 2011.pdf 940.65 KB
22nd
Sep
2011

World Energy Outlook – A Glimpse into the Future of Energy

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview and insights into the 2010 WEO. It is suggested that recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well short of what is needed for a secure and sustainable energy future. In respect to oil, growing demand for mobility in emerging economies is driving up use, production is shifting away from crude and oil will come from fewer producers; the view is that the age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case. Gas is seen as playing a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs and it is asked whether we may be entering a golden age for gas. It is also recognised that the stronger penetration of natural gas could have profound implications for energy markets and the environment. Although renewables are entering the mainstream, long-term support is needed to boost their competitiveness. Detailed information is provided on climate change and emission reductions, with a recognition that a lack of ambition in Copenhagen/Cancun has increased the Read more…

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World Energy Outlook A glimpse into the future of energy.pdf 539.08 KB
17th
Feb
2011

Global Gas and LNG Balance 2010

Michael Smith, BP Provides an overview of recent developments in key markets, in respect to regional supply and demand, LNG supply and demand, and price signals; in the context of the near and long term market outlooks. It is apparent that: there has been a strong gas demand recovery in major markets, although there are significant weather and fuel switching elements within this demand recovery; delayed ramp-up in LNG supply and flexibility of European suppliers have limited the impact of recession on prices outside of N. America; the near term market outlook is highly uncertain but in the medium term the market will re-balance; contrasting supply trends will dictate future LNG requirements (shale gas in N. America, European production decline, and the emergence of new LNG importers in Asia and elsewhere).

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Global Gas and LNG balance 2010 Compatibility Mode.pdf 1.48 MB
8th
Oct
2010

Russia’s Eastern Gas Strategy 2010

Professor Mike Bradshaw, University of Leicester The state-sponsored Eastern Programme was initiated in 2007, with Gazprom being given a monopoly over its implementation and the export of natural gas to the Asia-Pacific. It will see the gasification of key economic centres in East Siberia and the Far East and key reasons for its development include: the diversification of Russian energy exports by developing new markets in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR); to diversify Russian exports from East Siberia and the Russian Far East by developing processing industries; to ensure the ‘effective occupation’ of Pacific Russia by providing domestic energy security, employment and export revenues; and to increase Russia’s economic weight in the APR. Detailed information is provided on the drivers and issues relating to the development of the strategy and its implementation. Whilst the economic and geostrategic logic of the strategy are clear, it is not apparent how quickly it might be implemented or funded, the coming years are seen as critical and a number of issues remain.

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Russias Eastern Gas Strategy 2010 Compatibility Mode.pdf 2.6 MB
8th
Oct
2010

2010 Winter Outlook and a future view

Peter Parsons, National Grid The winter outlook for 2010/11 is presented for gas and electricity, in respect to weather forecasts, gas demand and supply, electricity demand and supply, whilst also considering supply issues and security of supply. An overview of the mechanisms for meeting the UK environmental targets and Grid’s future scenarios is also provided. In respect to gas, it is highlighted that: the peak day demand forecast is higher than last year; forecast non storage supplies are higher than last year with potential upsides in LNG; storage deliverability is reduced due to less LNG and a review of the actual deliverability from all storage sites; forecast spreads between gas or coal for base load is very small. For electricity, the average Cold Spell Demand forecast is the same as last year and the notified and assumed generation availability is also similar, although there is a large potential upside in new CCGT commissioning during the winter. Based on this and even with uncertainties, the forecast indicates the winter should be manageable, subject to events. In terms of supply issues key Read more…

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2010 Winter Outlook and a future view.pdf 1.44 MB
8th
Oct
2010

Economic impacts of wind generation variability on gas network operation

Dr Modassar Chaudry, Institute of Energy, Cardiff University Large capacity of wind generation is expected to be installed across Great Britain by 2020. Wind generation is intermittent, therefore fast ramping generation plants will be required to balance electricity demand. Gas-fired generation plants will be used to compensate for wind generation variability because of their ramping capability and large generation capacity in GB. This will cause comparable gas demand swings in the gas network as wind comes and goes. A combined gas and electricity network optimisation model (CGEN) is used to quantify the economic impacts of wind variability on gas-fired generation plants and gas network operation. The additional maintenance and operational costs due to greater ramping and stop/starts of gas-fired plants are investigated. Analysis is performed on cost implications of increased compressor power consumption and linepack fluctuations in order to manage larger gas demand swings in the gas network.

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Economic impacts of wind generation variability on gas network operation - Paper.pdf 4.9 MB
23rd
Sep
2010

World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen IEA

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency An overview of the 2010 WEO Reference Scenario to 2030 is provided, discussing: changes in primary energy demand; upstream oil and gas capital expenditures; oil production, issues and prices; and natural gas supply, transportation, prices and market trends. The 450 Scenario is also described in respect to how demand by fuel type needs to change and the abatement of CO2 emissions; along with some key facts relating to the EU, China and the Copenhagen Accord. Some key findings include: the financial crisis has halted the rise in global energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume, based on current policies; oil investment has fallen sharply, posing questions on medium term supply; a sizable glut of natural gas is looming; a 450 path will require massive investments but would bring substantial benefits; natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future; and the Copenhagen Accord takes significant steps forward on international climate policy but is not sufficient to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees.

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World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen.pdf 2.79 MB
18th
Mar
2010

Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2009

Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides an overview of what happened in the previous winter, before considering the outlook for 2009/10. During the previous winter, there were periods of cold weather lasting around two weeks, but overall the winter was average; although one impact of the January cold snap was that it drove UK gas demand to near record levels. There were also: widespread gas supply disruptions across Europe in January as a consequence of Russia/Ukraine disputes; unprecedented IUK winter export flows; and higher demands met through significant flows from UK storage facilities at an early stage of the winter period, leading to concerns over the UK’s resilience to a late winter supply shock or prolonged period of cold weather. However, the impact of the economic recession also lowered overall demand. Looking forward to the 2009/10 winter, it is anticipated that this will be milder than the previous year, with a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter. Forecast gas demand (weather corrected) is 2.5% lower, on top of 6% reduction last winter, whilst forecast non storage supply is similar Read more…

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Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2009.pdf 1.19 MB
8th
Oct
2009

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