Downloads / Energy in a Low carbon economy

The economics of gas storage investment

Ivan Olzack , Oxera Despite longer-term policies to decarbonise the economy, UK dependence on imported gas is growing, driven in large part by gas use in the power sector and reflecting the relatively low cost of gas-fired generation and the lower carbon intensity of gas relative to coal. While current global gas supplies appear abundant, the prospect of a recovery in global conomic growth, rising UK import dependence, and uncertainty over the timing of certain future gas infrastructure projects remain problematic issues for policy-makers concerned about security of supply. This paper examines the role of gas storage as a source of flexible gas, and a method by which to manage the risks to gas security. The level of storage in the UK is compared with that in other European countries with different market mechanisms. In order to assess the commercial incentives to invest, the number and type of prospective storage projects are considered in relation to the price signals provided by the market, the transparency of those price signals, and the considerable uncertainty implied by plausible gas market scenarios. The Read more…

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The economics of gas storage investment - Presentation.pdf 193.83 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

The Effect of Royalties on oil and gas production

Dr Clinton Levitt, Copenhagen Business School I develop a structural model of exploration and extraction that can be used to estimate the effectiveness of different royalty schemes.  I focus on four targets: (1)government revenue; (2)where firms explore; (3)volume extracted from existing wells; and, (4)in-situ recovery rates (investment in enhanced recovery methods).  Using data from Alberta, Canada, I constructed an extensive geographic information system.  These data contain information on over 400 thousand individual wells.  For each well, the data include the latitude and longitude, the owner, monthly extracted volumes over the lifetime of the well, and production dates.  With these data, I can construct individual production histories of over 400 thousand wells.  In addition, data on over 40 thousand hydrocarbon pools are used to construct accurate reserve estimates for each well.  Finally, the pool data can be used to accurately estimate extraction costs at the pool level.  These data represent a significant improvement over data that have been previously used to study oil and gas investment decisions.  These novel data allow me to estimate a sophisticated structural model of firms\’ investment Read more…

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The Effect of Royalties on oil and gas production - Paper.pdf 574.15 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Contract Renegotiation and Rent Re-Redistribution: Who Gets Raked Over the Coals?

Dr Ian Lange, University of Stirling Policy shocks affect the rent distribution in long-term contracts, which can lead to such contracts being renegotiated.  We seek an understanding of what aspects of contract design, in the face of a substantial policy shock, affect the propensity to renegotiate.  We test our hypotheses using data on U.S. coal contracts after the policy shock of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Contracts are divided into two categories, those that were renegotiated following the shock and those that were not and their characteristics are used to determine how they influence whether or not a contract was ultimately renegotiated.  Results provide guidance on rent re-distribution and contract renegotiation more generally and are applicable to contemporary policy issues such as climate change legislation.

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Contract Renegotiation and Rent Re-Redistribution - Presentation.pdf 498.94 KBContract Renegotiation and Rent Re-Redistribution - Paper.pdf 287.78 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

The Oil Companies’ Approach To Renewable Energy

Miss Ana Penha The research for this thesis, submitted in May 2009, focuses on the reasons for oil companies investing (or not) in renewable energy. During the research stage companies representative of the oil and gas (O&G) market were analyzed. The companies were selected from rankings performed by Petroleum Intelligence Weekly and Platts. The companies are: BP, Chevron, CNPC, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, Gazprom, NIOC, PDVSA, Rosneft, Saudi Aramco, Shell, StatoilHydro and Total. Of these fourteen companies, ten accepted the invitation to participate in this study and provide invaluable information. This study has one distinctive difference from other previous published studies. In the past studies about oil companies’ strategies related to climate change have compared only the so called “western” companies such as BP, Shell and ExxonMobil. Furthermore, this study analyses the biggest oil companies independently from their location. This is more significant if we take into consideration the companies with more relevance in the market in terms of O&G reserves or production, for instance Saudi Aramco, NIOC or Gazprom. To sum up, climate change, energy security and business opportunity are Read more…

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The Oil Companies’ Approach To Renewable Energy - Paper.pdf 349 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels development

Mr Grant Allan, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde Biofuels offer the possibility of serving most, if not all, of the four goals of Scottish energy policy (Scottish Government, 2009): reducing emissions; improving security of supply; improving accessibility to cheap fuels (particularly, perhaps, in remote rural areas); and offering scope for regional economic development potential. The extent to which economic development in the region is boosted is likely to depend upon the specific biofuels technology employed, and its embeddedness into the regional economy, noting any existing regional activity which is likely to be displaced by that fuel technology (if applicable). These issues can be considered within appropriately disaggregated regional Input-Output (IO) models, and have been incorporated in studies for ethanol and biodiesel technologies. Such studies show the regional economic link between changes in demand for biofuels in the region and economic variables. Such models however, typically employ conventional “demand-driven” IO models in linking changes in demand for a sectors output and regional output changes. In the specific case of (first-generation) biofuels, the assumptions underlying “demand-driven” models appear to be unsuitable, Read more…

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Modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels development - Paper.pdf 422.57 KBModelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels development - Presentation.pdf 780.63 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Economic impacts of wind generation variability on gas network operation

Dr Modassar Chaudry, Institute of Energy, Cardiff University Large capacity of wind generation is expected to be installed across Great Britain by 2020. Wind generation is intermittent, therefore fast ramping generation plants will be required to balance electricity demand. Gas-fired generation plants will be used to compensate for wind generation variability because of their ramping capability and large generation capacity in GB. This will cause comparable gas demand swings in the gas network as wind comes and goes. A combined gas and electricity network optimisation model (CGEN) is used to quantify the economic impacts of wind variability on gas-fired generation plants and gas network operation. The additional maintenance and operational costs due to greater ramping and stop/starts of gas-fired plants are investigated. Analysis is performed on cost implications of increased compressor power consumption and linepack fluctuations in order to manage larger gas demand swings in the gas network.

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Economic impacts of wind generation variability on gas network operation - Paper.pdf 4.9 MB
23rd
Sep
2010

The Formation of a Domestic and International Market for Tidal Energy Technologies: the Economic Implications for the UK

Miss Michelle Gilmartin, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde World-wide interest in tidal power has increased in recent years, and this is particularly true in the UK, where the vast tidal energy resource around the coast is ranked among the best in the world.  An important part of the case for renewable energy is the UK-wide socio-economic opportunities that would be associated with the deployment of devices such as tidal turbines.  Domestic expenditures on research and development, production, installation and maintenance of tidal turbine devices could provide an important demand stimulus for the local, regional and national economies.  In addition, a key driver in developing the UK tidal sector is the economic gain that could flow from the export of tidal devices, technologies and expertise. In this paper, we model the potential economic impacts associated with the deployment of tidal energy in the UK.  We use a twenty-five sector computable general equilibrium model, UKENVI, to estimate the UK benefit from a domestic and export demand stimulus to the UK tidal power industry.  In doing so, we focus on the Read more…

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The Formation of a Domestic and International Market for Tidal Energy Technologies - Paper.pdf 129.08 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Lessons learned from New Zealand’s electricity market

Mr Mike Parker, Transpower New Zealand Limited In the last twenty years, many countries have split up state-run, vertically integrated and centrally planned electricity supply systems, in order to harness the benefits that competition and markets can offer. Without successful working models to base their electricity market on, each country has basically run its own experiment. It has become obvious in that time, that whilst markets work well for some aspects of electricity supply, they do not for others. Competitive generation appears to work well, for instance, but not market-driven transmission. Neither will markets deliver security of supply or other public policy objectives. This presentation will discuss learnings from New Zealand, where the state-run electricity supplier was split into a transmission company and several generation/retailing companies in the 1990’s.

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Lessons learned from New Zealand’s electricity market - Presentation.pdf 574.01 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Resource Adequacy and Renewable Energy in Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets

Dr Serena Hesmondhaigh, The Brattle Group Ltd We review a range of alternative wholesale electricity market designs in the context of the challenges of ensuring generation resource adequacy in a low carbon economy.  Through this analysis, we identify “market mechanisms” that are compatible with government or regulatory constraints related to the shares of conventional and renewable energy of different kinds. The paper draws on research about markets around the world and derives conclusions for the GB electricity market. We examine six alternative market designs, from energy-only markets to designs that rely on administratively-determined capacity payments or explicit reserve requirements in possible combination with centralized capacity markets. For each of these market designs, we summarize relevant international experience and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the various approaches. Each of these designs has advantages in certain market and regulatory environments. Some market designs have existed long enough that we are able to evaluate some of their successes and failures. More often, the market designs are still relatively new and rapidly evolving. Nevertheless, the experience to date provides some indication of how Read more…

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Resource Adequacy and Renewable Energy in Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets - Paper.pdf 294.69 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

An evaluating of the regulation of Incentives for Alternative Electricity Sources in Brazil

Dr Élbia Melo, CCEE -Brazil The reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions is one of the major challenges that has been faced by the humankind nowadays. This challenge is straight related to the electricity energy production, considering that this sector is in front line of the greenhouse gas emissions. In this sense, the search for alternative ways to produce electricity energy is one of the main objectives of the 21st century. Brazil presents an unique scenery in the worldwide electricity industry. The Brazilian electricity generation matrix may characterize the power industry as a renewable one. The Brazilian interconnected system which accounts for about 98% of the Brazilian electricity market has an installed capacity of near 107 GW, with the hydro system responsible for 71% of the total installed capacity. Thermal generation main includes nuclear, natural gas, coal, oil plants and biomass. When we focus on alternatives energy sources we figure out a huge unexploited potential in Brazil: 143.5 GW related to wind power and 12.3 GW related to small hydro plants. In the case of biomass source by sugar cane, Read more…

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An evaluating of the regulation of Incentives for Alternative Electricity Sources in Brazil - Paper.pdf 827.51 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

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