Martin Scheepers, ECN, The Netherlands
In a review process to assess the energy security of supply (SoS) for the EU and individual
Member States, standards can provide a common and objective framework in EU energy policy. In particular, they could be useful in the context of the Strategic EU Energy Review as proposed by the European Commission in its recent Green Paper on EU energy policy. Standards shouldbe based on security of supply indicators. This report elaborates the proposed concept of energysecurity of supply standards. It explains the role of (novel) indicators in the standards and the process for using and developing them. Also the use of SoS standards in a review process of energy supply security is elucidated. The report describes the development of two quantitative indicators that can be used in EU security of supply standards.
The first one is the Supply/Demand Index, which is based on a Member State’s energy system covering not only the supply of primary energy sources but also the conversion and transport of secondary energy carriers and the final energy demands. The S/D Index is particularly well suited for assessing today’s energy security as well as energy security in the medium and longer term. The use of this indicator is illustrated with examples for the EU-25 and for the Member States the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Today’s index values for these examples vary from 51 to 78, on a scale of 0 to 100. Indicative 2020 values for these five cases range from 48 to 72, based on the EC Trends to 2030 scenarios published in 2003. The S/D Index is based largely on objective information contained in energy balances combined with weighing factors and scoring rules, using existing indicators to the extent possible. The most important uncertainties are addressed by sensitivity analyses.
The second indicator is the Crisis Capability Index. With this indicator the capability of a Member State or the EU as a whole to manage and mitigate short-term supply interruptions can be assessed.
Finally, the standard includes qualitative considerations concerning the multilateral measures to secure overall producer/consumer relations and safeguarding vulnerable transport routes for oil and gas.