Considering the Sixth Carbon Budget as a case study for an NDC – a strategic look at COP26

Considering the Sixth Carbon Budget as a case study for an NDC – a strategic look at COP26

Jenny Hill, Head of Buildings and International Action, UK Climate Change Committee, in conversation with:

  • Emanuel Guerin, Executive Director for the International Group, European Climate Foundation
  • Alex Kazaglis, Director, Vivid Economics
  • Dr Richard Millar, Head of Adaptation and Climate Science lead, UK Climate Change Committee
  • Lola Vallejo, Climate Programme Director, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) published its advice on the Sixth Carbon budget (2033-2037) last December, providing the analytical underpinning for the UK’s enhanced National Determined Contribution (NDC) of a 68% reduction in GHGs by 2030, against 1990 levels, ahead of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow later this year.

In doing so, it drew on new analysis of international pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement by Vivid Economics and UCL, and looked at how the UK can best contribute in the round to the broader global transition needed to deliver the Paris Agreement. This provides a new analytical framework for integrating domestic action as part of a wider offer alongside climate finance, assisting technology transfer, consideration of overseas consumption emissions plus the (potential) use of credits from international markets.

This session is looking to tease out the tensions and test the links between the UK’s 6th carbon budget, the CCC’s recommendations and the wider COP agenda, set within the strategic context of the coming negotiations. Important questions we expect to explore include what role International removal markets can play in the global effort to tackle climate change and how considerations of trade and trade negotiations can most effectively be harnessed to leverage global climate action. The panel will come at these topics from a variety of angles and discuss the opportunities and challenges of delivering a globally-focussed, outward-looking NDC.

We plan to explore some of the big questions ahead of the COP26 negotiations:

  • To what extent COP26 is on track? What actions the UK Presidency needs to take, both immediate, and post-COP, to ensure a strong legacy?
  • What more is needed on adaptation – what does success look like?
  • The future of carbon markets and creating markets for carbon removals – what needs to happen, when? How do we manage risks?


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