October 19, 2017

Will Gas Become The New Coal?

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Whilst the possible peaking in coal demand is being trumpeted as a victory in the battle against climate change, the role of natural gas in the energy transition remains contentious.  Will it continue to feature in changing sectors and markets around the world?  Or will it be vilified like coal, as just another fossil fuel?  We have several speakers who will consider different aspects of this debate, in Britain and more widely, considering both the short and the long-term. In addition, the seminar will also feature, as usual, the annual UK gas winter outlook.


Outline Programme




Welcome and introduction – Mallika Ishwaran, Shell Scenarios Team and BIEE Council Member


Will gas become the new coal?


‘What could UK climate targets mean for gas consumption’? David Joffe, Team Leader for Buildings, Industry and Devolved Administrations, Committee on Climate Change
‘Greenhouse gases, infrastructure and the role of CCS’Adam Hawkes, Deputy Director of Sustainable Gas Institute, Imperial College
‘Competition and trade in global gas markets: global and Uk perspectives’Robert Ritz, Principal, Vivid Economics
Shell global LNG outlook’Marco Serafini, Global Gas Market Advisor, Shell International Exploration and Production; ‘


Audience debate moderated by Martin Haigh, Senior Energy Adviser, Shell Scenarios Team 



15.50 UK gas winter outlook  ‘A new era’ ?Presentation and Q&A Simon Durk, Market Insights Manager, National Grid









David Joffe 150x130David Joffe has been with the Committee on Climate Change since 2007, where he leads the team covering industry, hydrogen and devolved administrations. This includes leading CCC’s work on shale gas and how UK production can be consistent with decarbonisation pathways. David was the lead author of the Committee’s advice to UK Government on the 5th carbon budget and on the statutory report on compatibility of UK shale gas extraction with carbon budgets, as well as a co-author of the CCC’s report on Next Steps in UK Heat Policy. He has a PhD on hydrogen from Imperial College.



Adam_hawkes-150x150Dr Adam Hawkes is Co-Director of the Sustainable Gas Institute, Programme Lead for Energy Modelling at the Grantham Institute, and a Senior Lecturer in Energy Systems in the Centre for Process Systems Engineering at Imperial College. A Chartered Engineer, Dr Hawkes has 20 years’ experience of technical leadership and management in the field of energy technology assessment and systems modelling.  His work takes an integrated approach to energy system analysis across scales, infrastructures, technologies and jurisdictions.  This is achieved via the formulation and application of local, national and global energy systems models that produce pathways of energy system transition.  Adam has worked on key emerging challenges in energy systems such as future roles for conventional and low carbon fuels, heat decarbonisation, mass-market integration of renewables, and the role of carbon capture in sustainable energy systems. He frequently provides strategic and analytical services to UK and international governments, industry, NGO and other energy system stakeholders on topics ranging from technology appraisal through to policy impact assessment.


Robert-ritz-150x160Dr Robert Ritz has been a Principal at Vivid Economics since 2008. He is an expert in industrial organisation, energy & environmental economics, and finance. He focuses on competition & market analysis and on the design and impacts of climate policy, with particular emphasis on oil & gas, electricity, and carbon markets. He has advised a wide range of industrial clients, government departments, and financial institutions in Europe and beyond. At Cambridge University, he is Assistant Director of the Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) and a Senior Research Associate in Economics & Policy at its Judge Business School. He also serves on the Academic Panel of the UK’s Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) and on the Scientific Committee of the “Chair of the Economics of Natural Gas” at MINES ParisTech. Earlier in his career, he was at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and McKinsey & Company.



Marco-Serafini-150x132Marco Serafini is the Global Gas Market Advisor for Shell Energy, the customer interface for Shell Integrated Gas business.In his role, Marco coordinates the long-term forecast for global gas and LNG, leveraging on Shell’s depth and breadth in the various markets to integrate knowledge and deliver market fundamentals insights to the business. Marco has been working in the Oil and Gas industry for the past 10 years, with roles in operational auditing with the EPCM contractor Saipem and later with Shell, where he led audits on most of the gas projects and assets in Shell’s portfolio, and later joined the gas commercial organisation. Marco has a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration from Bocconi University (Milan) and a Master of Science in Management from Bocconi University and Fudan University (Shanghai).He is also a Certified Internal Auditor (CIA).



simon-durk-small2Simon Durk is Market Insights Manager, National Grid. He has extensive experience in analytical teams in National Grid and beyond, with particular emphasis on gas demand and supply modelling.  Most recently he led the team that created the views of gas supply for National Grid’s key publications, the Future Energy Scenarios, Gas Ten Year Statement and the Winter and Summer Outlooks. As Market Insights Manager he is responsible for turning analysis into insight that informs the industry and helps to cement National Grid’s position at the centre of the energy debate.




The meeting will be held at the Institute for Contemporary Arts. Delegates should come to the back entrance of the ICA at 12 Carlton House Terrace and they will be escorted to the Brandon and Nash Rooms on the first floor, where the meeting will be held. For location and travel information click here

Registration will start at 13.30 and the meeting at 13.45

Access for those with limited mobility.

There is limited step-free access to the Nash and Brandon Rooms.
There is a small passenger lift, but it is not large enough to accommodate a person using a wheelchair. The individual would be required to transfer from their wheelchair into a chair placed in the lift, and the venue staff would transport the wheelchair separately. The passenger lift is not in a public area. ICA staff will be happy to assist with this process but it will not be suitable for those who are unable to transfer from their wheelchair or those using a motorised wheelchair.
Please let us know in advance if you require assistance as you will need to access the building via a different entrance.



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