Downloads / European Energy in a Challenging World

Wind farm portfolios

We model the financial performance of portfolios of wind farms located around Great Britain in the early 2020s.  We measure the expected annual profits and their variance as the measures of performance most relevant to investors (acknowledging that system operators need to respond to short-term variations in output).   The efficient frontiers contain relatively few stations (no more than four out of a possible fifteen), and the average portfolio has an efficiency of just 0.725.  The correlation between the efficiency of a portfolio measured with respect to annual output and with respect to annual profits is just 0.103.  Careful market analysis is needed if investors are to build optimal portfolios of wind stations.  

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How-large-should-a-portfolio-of-wind-farms-be.pdf 1.4 MBWind-portfolios.pdf 391.54 KB
20th
Sep
2012

What’s the future role of photovoltaics in the UK energy mix? A discussion of recent market and policy developments

Dr Chiara Candelise, Imperial College The introduction of the Feed in Tariff (FIT) scheme has spurred photovoltaic (PV) sector in the UK, leading to a relatively unexpected increase in installed capacity since its implementation in April 2010.  By the end of 2011 PV installations reached about 750MW from about 40MW at the beginning of 2010. Such market growth has definitely been policy driven, but has also been helped by the dramatic price drop experienced by global PV module prices in the last two years. Indeed, module price drops and increased installation rate have led the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to undergo a controversial review of the FIT scheme, implying a substantial cut in the tariffs to support PV deployment. On the other hand, these recent developments have allowed the UK PV industry to grow and the achievement of considerable cost reductions in UK PV system costs (including balance of system costs). Medium-long term expectations on PV technologies also seem to have increased, as shown by a target of 20GW installed PV capacity by 2020 recently suggested Read more…

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20th
Sep
2012

The impact of installer business models on the uptake of residential microgeneration in the UK: Evidence from a nation-wide survey

Mr Richard Hanna, Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of Surrey This paper arises from a doctoral thesis comparing the impact of alternative installer business models on the rate at which microgeneration is taken up in homes and installation standards across the UK. The paper will present the results of the first large-scale academic survey of businesses certified to install residential microgeneration. The aim is to systematically capture those characteristics which define the business model of each surveyed company, and relate these to the number, location and type of technologies that they install, and the quality of these installations. The methodology comprised a pilot web survey of 235 certified installer businesses, which was carried out in June last year and achieved a response rate of 30%. Following optimisation of the design, the main web survey was emailed to over 2000 businesses between October and December 2011, with 317 valid responses received. The survey will be complemented during summer 2012 by semi-structured interviews with a representative sample of installers who completed the main survey. The survey results are currently being analysed. The Read more…

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The-role-of-installation-businesses-in-the-uptake-of-residential-microgeneration.pdf 741.42 KBHannaTheimpactofinstallerbusinessmodels.pdf 324.94 KB
20th
Sep
2012

Effectiveness of Feed-In Tariff Schemes for Solar PV: The Miracle Case of Italy

Mr Piergiorgio Chelucci, KEMA In the past two years PV technology has achieved an incredible expansion in the Italian electricity sector, with an astonishing 9GWp installed only in the past 12 months. Even more astonishing is that fact that according to GSE, the state owned company that promotes and supports renewables in Italy, PV installed capacity is projected to reach 15 GW by the end of 2012, a year-to-year increase of 20%. This success story started in 2005 with the introduction of the renewable incentive mechanism ‘Conto Energia’ (the feed-in premium scheme which provides a bonus to be paid on top of the market electricity price to the Photovoltaic generation), that was the main driver of this massive deployment of PV and the miraculous take-up of this support scheme (along with others like the all-inclusive feed-in tariff “tariffa omnicomprensiva”). Italy’s formidable case, in terms of the effectiveness of the available support schemes and responsiveness of the sector, is increasingly attracting the interest of policymakers and stakeholders in much of Europe and the rest of the world. The aim of this Read more…

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20th
Sep
2012

Decarbonising surface transport in 2050

Mr Eric Ling, Committee on Climate Change This paper sets out a scenario for decarbonisation of surface transport between 2012 and 2050 consistent with the objective of meeting the UK’s Climate Change Act target of an 80% reduction in GHG emissions across all sectors of the UK economy, at lowest total cost to society. The specific focus is on (1) the technical performance and economic costs of low-carbon transport technologies, including the likely evolution of the costs of electric vehicle batteries, (2) travel patterns and their implications for market uptake of limited-range electric vehicles, and (2) the impact of decarbonisation of surface transport on UK energy demand (fossil fuels, biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen).

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Decarbonising-surface-transport-in-2050.pdf 847.81 KBLing_E_decarbonising_surface_transport.pdf 1.25 MB
20th
Sep
2012

The implementation of biofuels in Oil Firms; Unlocking a path dependency and steering towards a more sustainable trajectory?

Mr Nelson Mojarro Gonzalez, SPRU, University of Sussex Biofuels can be used either as an additive or as a fuel substitute having different implications for oil firms. This paper focuses on the use of ethanol by oil firms and examines how and why ethanol has been employed by oil companies, and how this might lead to a (technological) shift in a historically path dependent technological system towards a potentially more sustainable trajectory. The article analyzes the case of the major Brazilian oil company, Petrobras and argues that after decades of complying the highest ethanol blending mandate in the world, the Brazilian oil firm, has until recently has until recently enter biofuel upstream activities, potentially unlocking its oil-only based path dependency. Oil firms are almost the sole providers of motor fuels and “the infrastructure necessary to provide fuels can be identified as a path dependent large technological system. This system has since the early 20th century employed the same raw material (crude oil) to produce its main process refining output, motor gasoline. The vast majority of oil firms in this system Read more…

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Unlocking-a-path-dependency-The-case-of-Brazilian-ethanol-implementation-in-Petrobras.pdf 1.21 MB
20th
Sep
2012

Spatial Panel Data Models and Fuel Demand in Brazil

Dr Gervasio Santos, Federal University of Bahia The objective of this paper is to estimate the price and income elasticity for gasoline and ethanol in the fuel market for light vehicles in Brazil using spatial panel data models. The presence of two main fuels – gasoline and ethanol – in this market makes it considerably competitive. In addition, vehicular natural gas (VNG) also has a marginal presence in the market. Besides diversification, there are three main spatial features of fuel supply that might influence heterogeneity in the behavior of regional consumers. First, sugar-cane ethanol production is concentrated in some states. Second, besides marginal imports of gasoline, its production also is concentrated in some states. And third, along with the small share of VNG, production and logistical problems lead to a concentration of supply in a few states and cities. As a consequence, consumer behavior is heterogeneous and directly and indirectly influenced by different supply gaps and transportation and distribution costs. For this reason, there may be spatial autocorrelation patterns in fuel demand. Thus, spatial panel data models are used to Read more…

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Spatial-Panel-Data-Models-and-Fuel-Demand-in-Brazil.pdf 515.64 KBSANTOS-Spatial_Panel_Data_Model_and_Fuel_Demand_in_Brazil-6mw.pdf 663.33 KB
20th
Sep
2012

A Mediterranean electricity co-operation strategy: Vision and rationale.

Dr Alessandro Rubino, ENEL Foundation Energy markets, and electricity markets in particular, are increasingly interconnected and interrelated, both physically and institutionally. Like a spider’s web, transmission networks develop almost everywhere across Europe responding to the EU’s need to guarantee unconstrained exchange of energy flows. The network development clearly reflects the regulatory, economic and legal convergence that has occurred among most of the EU countries in the last decades. The outlook is somewhat more complex when we enlarge the scale of our analysis. The Mediterranean region is composed of countries that show a significant variety in their level and path of economic growth rate and other economic fundamentals. This diversity is also mirrored by the energy landscape of the region. In the region key hydrocarbon suppliers, transit countries from other regions to the EU and net energy importing countries coexist. Consequently, energy policy in the Mediterranean area is characterised by a composite set of technical, economic and geo-political factors that contribute to determine a multifaceted scenario. This poses the problem of how European countries should deal with non-EC neighbours. We explore Read more…

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A-Mediterranean-electricity-co-operation-strategy.-Vision-and-rationale-.pdf 743.85 KBA-Mediterranean-electricity-co-operation-strategy-final.pdf 321.39 KB
20th
Sep
2012

Unconventional gas – A review of estimates

Mr Jamie Speirs, Imperial Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICEPT) The future potential for unconventional gas production remains contentious, with questions over the size and recoverability of the physical resource being central to the debate. While interest has focused upon shale gas over the last three years, there is also considerable potential for coal bed methane (CBM) and tight gas to contribute to global gas supply. However, despite recent advances there remains considerable uncertainty over the size of recoverable resources for each type of gas, at both the regional and global level. This even applies to the United States, where the development of shale gas resources is relatively advanced. This paper summarises and critically evaluates the regional and global estimates of CBM, tight gas, and shale gas resources and compares these with current estimates of conventional gas resources. The paper identifies a total of 56 studies providing original country-level estimates of unconventional gas resources, with 38 of these (70%) being published since the beginning of 2007. These estimates have been derived from a variety of methods and are presented Read more…

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Unconventional-gas-a-review-of-estimates.pdf 1.57 MBJamie-Speirs-Unconventional-gas-A-review-of-estimates.pdf 1.47 MB
20th
Sep
2012

The Potential Impact on Europe of Russia’s Evolving Domestic Gas Market

Dr James Henderson, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Historically Russia, and particularly Gazprom, has relied on gas exports to Europe to subsidise low domestic prices. However, Russia’s attitude towards European sales is set to change over the next decade as its domestic market is gradually liberalised, with potentially profound consequences for gas supply to Europe. As domestic prices rise towards export netback parity gas producers in Russia will be able to generate profitable returns from domestic sales as well as exports. Indeed, a number of independent producers such as Novatek are already doing this, and the rise of these new producers could fundamentally change the Russian gas portfolio supplying western markets. As prices and pipelines are liberalised, so” Independents”, whose production has previously been restricted by Gazprom’s monopoly, will be allowed to increase sales of their relatively low-cost gas domestically and may even be given access to export markets. Meanwhile Gazprom, whose new west-facing fields are both remote and high cost, may find itself increasingly focused on eastern markets to secure its growth. Gazprom’s monopoly on fields in eastern Russia Read more…

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The-Potential-Impact-on-Europe-of-Russia’s-Evolving-Domestic-Gas-Market.pdf 387.16 KBThe-Potential-Impact-on-Europe-of-Changes-in-Russias-Gas-Market.pdf 760.15 KB
20th
Sep
2012

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