The Outlook for Gas: short-term evolution, long-term revolution?

Introduction

An evolution in changing uses for gas, institutional reforms, technological change, and geopolitics are all driving gas demand and supply – globally, across Europe and here in the UK. But will these incremental developments usher in a future of radical changes and transformation?  What are the drivers, path dependences, and tipping points of any potential revolution?  We have a set of leading experts who will consider the interplay between aspects of gas market development, in the short- and long-term.  In addition, the seminar will feature the annual UK gas winter outlook from National Grid.

Confirmed speakers: Anne-Sophie Corbeau (BP), Chi Kong Chyong, (Cambridge University), Richard Howard (Aurora Energy Research), Simon Durk (National Grid)

Agenda

13.00    Registration

13.15     Welcome and introduction – Mallika Ishwaran, Shell Scenarios Team and BIEE Council Member

13.20   The outlook for gas: short-term evolution, long-term revolution?

• Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Head of gas analysis, BP; ‘BP’s energy outlook and its implications for natural gas’
• Chi Kong Chyong, Research Associate & Director of Energy Policy Forum, Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge; ‘UK & European gas markets: taking stock and looking forward’
• Richard Howard, Research Director, Aurora Energy Research; ‘Aurora’s “Burn Out” scenario: Implications of rapid digitalisation, electrification and efficiency enhancement for global and UK gas markets’

14.40 Audience debate moderated by Valery Chow, Senior Energy Adviser, Shell Scenarios Team

15.10   Break

15.20   UK Gas Winter Outlook  2018 – 2019 Presentation and Q&A

• Simon Durk, Market Insights Manager, National Grid

16.00   Refreshments

17.00   Close

Speakers

Anne-Sophie Corbeau

Anne-Sophie Corbeau is Head of Gas Analysis at BP. She has been working in the energy industry for over 15 years with a particular focus on the gas industry and is the author of many publications focusing on gas, LNG markets, Asia, China, India and Africa, including the book “LNG markets in transition: the great reconfiguration” (Oxford, 2016). Before joining BP, she was a Research Fellow at KAPSARC (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre) in Riyadh. She also worked for the International Energy Agency (IEA) where she was responsible for managing the research on global gas markets, and IHS CERA.

Chi Kong Chyong

Chi Kong Chyong is a Research Associate at  the Judge Business School and Director of Energy Policy Forum, University of Cambridge. Kong holds a PhD in Energy Economics and Policy from Cambridge Judge Business School and an MPhil in Technology Policy from Cambridge. Before coming to Cambridge, he worked as a researcher at the National Academy of Sciences in Ukraine. Since completing his PhD, Kong has been a research associate at EPRG working mostly on natural gas market modelling and Eurasian gas trade relations as well as on energy infrastructure investment.

His research interests are  energy markets modelling, particularly equilibrium modelling of natural gas markets; investment under uncertainties and real options analysis, particularly energy infrastructure investment; Russian strategic natural gas export policy; Russo-Ukrainian energy relations; Russia-CIS-Central Asia natural gas trade.

Richard Howard       

Richard Howard is the Head of Research at Aurora Energy Research  and  is responsible for developing its suite of market intelligence services. Before joining Aurora he was a Director and Head of Energy and Environment at Policy Exchange, where he authored a number of influential reports on energy and environmental policy and regulation. Prior to that he was the Chief Economist at The Crown Estate. Richard has a first class degree in Economics and an MSc in Environmental Policy.

Valery Chow ( Moderator)

Val is Senior Energy Advisor in the Shell Scenarios team within Group Strategy & Portfolio. Based in The Hague, he advises on scenario development, supports coordination of global energy market analysis, and manages a range of strategy projects.

Prior to his current role, Val was Principal Master Planner in the Gas & Energy Master Planning team in Shell Netherlands, Vice President Energy Consulting at Wood Mackenzie Singapore, and Strategy Consultant at Accenture Australia in the resources practice.

Val holds a PhD in economics from Monash University Australia.

Simon Durk  Market Insights Manager, National Grid

Simon Durk has extensive experience in analytical teams in National Grid and beyond, with particular emphasis on gas demand and supply modelling.  Most recently he led the team that created the views of gas supply for National Grid’s key publications, the Future Energy Scenarios, Gas Ten Year Statement and the Winter and Summer Outlooks. He now has a new role as Market Insights Manager and as such is responsible for turning analysis into insight that informs the industry and helps to cement National Grid’s position at the centre of the energy debate.

The meeting will be held at Prince Philip House,  3 Carlton House Terrace, London For location and travel information please see their website

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