Mr Alasdair Bruce, University of Edinburgh
If significant decarbonisation of the electricity sector progresses, it is expected that a large proportion of the electricity generated in a number of liberalised energy markets will come from variable wind turbine generators and fixed-output nuclear power plants. At least in the near future, thermal generation (gas and coal) will be required to fill in the remaining generation after wind and nuclear. If the system requires low overall CO2 emissions then this thermal generation will have to be equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Thermal plants without CCS will have to be used in moderation to limit electricity (and energy) sector CO2 emissions. It is likely that thermal generation with CCS will have to be operated flexibly to manage wind output variability and provide real-time demand/supply balancing.
A meteorological wind resource data set was obtained containing simulated chronological hourly wind speeds for a large number of onshore and offshore UK wind sites. Hourly capacity factors were simulated and used to create a number of deterministic scenarios with different levels of wind penetration and nuclear capacity. A comprehensive understanding of the UK wind resource is required in order to study the impact wind variability will have on the remaining electricity generation infrastructure and how each of the generation technologies will interact in the electricity market. This paper examines the amount of thermal generation that will be required to act as infill for wind and nuclear and the proportion of this thermal generation that will require CCS in order to achieve an overall system emission level. This analysis may provide insights and early evidence for policy makers and other key stakeholders assessing, for example, electricity market regulations and financial mechanisms and how they might impact the electricity system under various simulated operating conditions.
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