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Oil Markets into 2006

Peter Davies, BP Sets out the context for oil and energy today in respect to: oil and gas prices; shares of world primary energy consumption; and drivers for high oil prices (OPEC behaviour post 1999, strong demand growth in 2004, low spare capacity, geopolitics and energy as a financial commodity). The reasons why prices rose, even though market fundamentals weakened are examined and the prospects for 2006 are set out, in relation to: the call on OPEC being less than current OPEC production levels; and the risks relating to economic growth, supply delays and outages, and geopolitical uncertainties. Into the medium term it is anticipated that: spare capacity will build back to historic levels through to 2010; that oil prices will remain over $40 a barrel; and that although market forces are expected to respond, it could take a long time to reassert.

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Oil Markets into 2006.pdf 644.22 KB
24th
Jan
2006

UK Gas and Electricity Supplies: A review of the winter 2003-04

John Greasley and Simon Griew, National Grid Transco Sets out the pre-winter view from Grid; in respect to gas covering: transportation requirements; gas forecasts; plant mothballing status; changes to market rules; gas/electricity interactions; CCGT interruptions; and proposals to mitigate negative impacts. Consideration is also given to electricity covering: plant margins; market signals; and the positive and negative key uncertainties going into winter including generation and interconnector availability. This is considered against winter demand based on temperature profile and average weekly ACS demand. The interactions between gas and electricity are discussed in respect to: GB gas-fired power stations; interruptible arrangements; and the potential for firm CCGTs to arbitrage. What happened to gas is also considered, covering Beach and Interconnector deliveries and firm demand-side management. A range of issues looking forward for winter gas and electricity supply are discussed.

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UK Gas and Electricity Supplies a review of the Winter 2003.pdf 396.55 KB
30th
Apr
2004

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