Downloads / Supply demand balance

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Each June BP  publishes  the annual data that has been collected on the world’s energy markets, to assess what has happened this last year and how last year’s experience relates to longer-term trends.  The aim is  to understand both the forces behind today’s headlines as well as the underlying trends that are shaping the new energy landscape . 2011 was an unusually eventful year in global energy. The tumultuous events of the ’Arab Spring‘ shook energy markets and underscored the importance of maintaining spare capacity and strategic stockpiles for dealing with supply disruptions. The earthquake and tsunami in Japan was a humanitarian disaster; and one with immediate implications – in Japan and around the world –for nuclear power and other fuels. Oil prices hit an all-time record high. Yet the revolution in shale gas production drove US natural gas prices lower, reaching record discounts to oil. http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481

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13th
Jun
2012

Energy Challenges of our time

Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA March Global challenges and trends in energy use, supply and carbon emissions are outlined. Headline trends include; decreasing global energy efficiency, increased spending on energy imports in the EU and a significant increase in global demand to 2035. Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention. Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand, with the Middle East and North Africa meeting most of oil demand growth to 2035. Coal was the most significant fuel from 2000-10 but a golden age for (unconventional) gas is predicted to 2035. In 2010 global fossil fuel subsidies were $409 billion and renewable energy subsidies were $66 billion. Energy poverty is widespread with 1.3 billion people with no access to electricity and 2.7 billion with no access to clean cooking facilities. Delivering modern energy for all would have significant health benefits and a positive impact on energy security and carbon emissions. Action to reduce global carbon emissions is increasingly urgent with high carbon lock in possible by 2017. There is an urgent need for Read more…

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Energy Challenges of Our Time - 2012.pdf 845.28 KB
23rd
Mar
2012

BP 2030 Energy Outlook

Christof Ruhl BP plc This outlook  identifies long-term energy trends, building on  the BP  Statistical Review of World Energy, and then develops projections for world energy markets to 2030, taking account of the potential evolution of the world economy, policy, and technology. The outlook’s ‘base case’ reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside BP . It is not a statement about how BP  would like the market to evolve. The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the central role markets and well-designed policy can play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important Read more…

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2012 2030 energy outlook booklet.pdf 1.76 MB
18th
Jan
2012

Volatility transmission in crude oil 2011

X. Jin, S. Lin and M. Tamvakis, Cass Business School City University London Using three main pricing benchmarks (Brent, WTI, and Dubai), research was carried out to examine: if oil markets are integrated; the way in which volatility is transmitted across markets; and what impact shocks have on volatility. A summary of the literature suggests that the world crude oil market is broadly one great pool, with oil markets being unified, at least in pairs. In addition, the literature suggests that volatility is generally transmitted across markets. In considering if the volatilities of the three benchmarks were interdependent, the research found that there is evidence that volatility is transmitted across benchmarks leading to closer market integration. It also found that in respect to the relationship between volatility and shock events, that Brent shows most “responsiveness” to shock events, followed by Dubai, with WTI lagging behind the other two. It is questioned whether this represents a permanent decoupling or whether this is becoming the dominant US crude, rather than an international benchmark. A number of possible areas for further research are Read more…

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Volatility transmission in crude oil - 2012.pdf 970.77 KB
11th
Jan
2012

The Prospects for Oil Prices 2011

Prof. Paul Stevens, Chatham House Prospects for 2012 are consider against a framework of analysis that examined what happened in 2011 in the ‘wet barrel’ market which includes trading real barrels, based on spot and term contracts; with this market influencing perceptions about surplus/shortage. As well as the ‘paper barrel’ market which includes commercial versus non-commercials and money managers versus speculators; with this market signalling what prices might be. There is frequently a disconnect between the two markets because the money managers “misread” the wet barrel market. In 2011, demand within the wet market was relatively strong, there was very poor non-OPEC performance and the Arab uprisings resulted in a decline in OPEC spare capacity, leading to a very tight market. However, within the paper market the Arab uprisings caused a scare because of a fear of contagion, although the reality was less threatening. For 2012, key issues include the relationship between recession and oil demand, linking to the Eurozone crisis and what is happening within the major industrialized countries; as well as a range of looming geopolitical factors, such Read more…

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Prospects for oil prices 2012.pdf 552.42 KB
11th
Jan
2012

Resource Revolution

Jeremy Oppenheim, McKinsey Global Institute The next twenty years will see a 35% increase in resource demand, driven by 3 billion new middle-class consumers. This will require a resource revolution that: aggressively maximises currently available productivity opportunities; enhances access to resource supply; and accelerates the next frontier of resource innovation. It is suggested that there are seven priority areas for action in order to realise this resource revolution. Four relate to ‘classic’ market failures, including: a lack of property rights; pricing of externalities; capital market failures; and dealing with the ‘public good’ nature of innovation. The other three go beyond standard market failures, and include: the need for new, integrated institutional approaches to resource governance; building awareness of resource-related risks; and shaping mindsets and consumer behaviour. These issues are discussed within the context of growing global wealth and trends in commodities, including historic prices and price volatility for a number of key resources, including energy, food, metals and agricultural materials.

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Resource Revolution.pdf 2.95 MB
19th
Oct
2011

Winter Gas Outlook Nat Grid 2011

Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides a detailed overview in respect to gas, covering: fuel prices; relative power economics; demand; demand forecasts; peak demand; supply forecasts from UKCS, interconnectors and LNG; and storage capacity. For electricity it is apparent that demand forecasts uncertainty has increased, and details are provided on: assumed availability of generators and interconnectors; generation and demand forecasts and outturns; normal demand and notified generation availability; 1 in 20 demand and assumed generation availability. In respect to the outlook for 2011/12 for gas: forward winter fuel prices strongly favour coal to be base load generation, providing a potential upside to gas demand; weather corrected gas demand forecast will be similar to last winter, though peak demand forecast is lower due to power generation assumptions; forecast non-storage supplies are similar to last winter with lower UKCS being offset by more LNG, albeit LNG supplies are subject to some uncertainties; and storage levels similar to last winter, but should increase in the winter when new facilities are commissioned. For electricity the outlook suggests that: the average Cold Spell Demand forecast will Read more…

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10th
Oct
2011

World Energy Outlook – A Glimpse into the Future of Energy

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview and insights into the 2010 WEO. It is suggested that recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well short of what is needed for a secure and sustainable energy future. In respect to oil, growing demand for mobility in emerging economies is driving up use, production is shifting away from crude and oil will come from fewer producers; the view is that the age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case. Gas is seen as playing a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs and it is asked whether we may be entering a golden age for gas. It is also recognised that the stronger penetration of natural gas could have profound implications for energy markets and the environment. Although renewables are entering the mainstream, long-term support is needed to boost their competitiveness. Detailed information is provided on climate change and emission reductions, with a recognition that a lack of ambition in Copenhagen/Cancun has increased the Read more…

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World Energy Outlook A glimpse into the future of energy.pdf 539.08 KB
17th
Feb
2011

Global Gas and LNG Balance 2010

Michael Smith, BP Provides an overview of recent developments in key markets, in respect to regional supply and demand, LNG supply and demand, and price signals; in the context of the near and long term market outlooks. It is apparent that: there has been a strong gas demand recovery in major markets, although there are significant weather and fuel switching elements within this demand recovery; delayed ramp-up in LNG supply and flexibility of European suppliers have limited the impact of recession on prices outside of N. America; the near term market outlook is highly uncertain but in the medium term the market will re-balance; contrasting supply trends will dictate future LNG requirements (shale gas in N. America, European production decline, and the emergence of new LNG importers in Asia and elsewhere).

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Global Gas and LNG balance 2010 Compatibility Mode.pdf 1.48 MB
8th
Oct
2010

2010 Winter Outlook and a future view

Peter Parsons, National Grid The winter outlook for 2010/11 is presented for gas and electricity, in respect to weather forecasts, gas demand and supply, electricity demand and supply, whilst also considering supply issues and security of supply. An overview of the mechanisms for meeting the UK environmental targets and Grid’s future scenarios is also provided. In respect to gas, it is highlighted that: the peak day demand forecast is higher than last year; forecast non storage supplies are higher than last year with potential upsides in LNG; storage deliverability is reduced due to less LNG and a review of the actual deliverability from all storage sites; forecast spreads between gas or coal for base load is very small. For electricity, the average Cold Spell Demand forecast is the same as last year and the notified and assumed generation availability is also similar, although there is a large potential upside in new CCGT commissioning during the winter. Based on this and even with uncertainties, the forecast indicates the winter should be manageable, subject to events. In terms of supply issues key Read more…

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2010 Winter Outlook and a future view.pdf 1.44 MB
8th
Oct
2010

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