Downloads / scenarios

Shell’s World Energy Mode

Mr Martin Haigh, Shell  Every five years or so, Shell conducts a major scenario study to look at alternative futures for the world’s energy system.  Over the last three years, the Scenario Team at Shell has developed a completely new World Energy Model (WEM).  It is the most comprehensive model of the world’s supply and demand for energy that Shell has ever developed.  It is the first model, at a global level, to integrate economic evidence on aggregate demand for energy and the choices influencing the energy mix, together with bottom-up research on the availability, access and speed of development of different resources and technologies.  The purpose of this model is to assess how different drivers could affect a transition to a substantially different energy system over the long-term (five decades).  And its scope is wide: all energy sources, all sectors of the economy, all foreseeable energy technologies, and the whole world at a detailed country level.  The model has been integral to the development of Shell’s new energy scenarios to 2050, Scramble and Blueprints, and provided the detailed quantification Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

BERR Energy Group’s Long Term Scenarios and analysis underpinning the 2008 Nuclear White Paper

Mr Stephen Green, BERR  The effects of today’s energy policy will be seen long into the future. BERR Energy Group Scenarios has developed scenarios to aid analysis of the robustness of policy to future changes within the framework of some plausible alternative futures.  This part of the paper will give an overview of the scenario development, the scenarios themselves and a short account of how they have been used to aid thinking about policy within the department. The second part of the paper would illustrate developments in policy on nuclear power from the 2003 Energy White Paper to the present.  The analysis for the 2008 Nuclear White Paper was underpinned by a detailed cost-benefit analysis taking into account the impact on carbon dioxide emissions and energy security of supply and comparing nuclear with fossil fuel generation. Analysis was also undertaken using the MARKAL energy model to illustrate the implications of including or excluding nuclear in the long-term electricity generation mix.  It would also explain the range of options which exist to abate emissions of carbon dioxide and how we undertake Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

Building Market Transformation: transforming markets from the inside

Mark Hinnells, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Buildings account for 47% of UK carbon emissions. Building Market Transformation is exploring how markets could be transformed to achieve large-scale reductions in carbon emissions from both residential and non-residential buildings (eg as much as 80% by 2050). For many years, policy has been evolutionary and has allowed businesses and business models to remain broadly unaltered. However, policy is now arguably becoming revolutionary and eliciting exciting unexpected and unpredicted responses from business. The paper several examples of how business models may fracture and then new ones emerge as a result of changed policy. There are also likely to be new ways of learning in response to policy, eg using internet based communities to build partnerships and share learning much faster than through conventional routes. The author, as well as being a researcher at Oxford is a partner in a business incubator in the process of developing four low carbon businesses, each of which has been given the opportunity to emerge because of changed policy and market conditions. The paper is based on Read more…

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25th
Sep
2008

Effectiveness and economic efficiency of support mechanisms for private sector investment in renewable generation technologies

Mr Jostein Kristensen  The recent proposal for a Renewables Directive  from the European Commission has set a target on the UK to source 15% of total energy consumption from renewable sources. This is likely to require the development of a large amount of additional UK renewable electricity generation capacity using a variety of technologies. Some of these technologies—in particular, certain offshore generation technologies—have yet to be proven commercially viable. This is the case even with the financial supports provided in the UK, which include the Renewable Obligation and the associated tradeable Renewable Obligation Certificates. We present recent and on-going research by Oxera to assess whether current UK policies are likely to be successful in bringing forth sufficient renewable generation capacity by the private sector, and whether alternative policies (some seen elsewhere in the EU) are likely to be more effective, efficient, and/or robust. Based on a dynamic investment model, several scenarios of UK renewable generation deployment are shown, including an economic assessment of the efficiency of existing and potential price or quantity policy levers. In addition, the effectiveness of schemes Read more…

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Renewing-the-renewables-obligation-pres.pdf 237.59 KB
25th
Sep
2008

Sustainability challenges in regulating electricity distribution networks

Miss Rita Shaw, Electricity North West / University of Surrey  The price-control regulation of Great Britain’s regional electricity distribution networks was created in response to the post-privatisation efficiency challenge. The regulatory system has evolved into a complex framework of standards (including for security, customer service, facilitation of competition and asset management) together with a suite of financial incentives (around cost efficiency, customer interruptions, electrical losses, innovation and distributed generation). The poster/ paper will consider the incentives on the network businesses (DNOs) to support development of a low-carbon economy in the current regulatory framework. It will address the question: can the regulatory focus on competition and efficiency in distribution networks be reconciled with also achieving sustainable and secure energy services? The paper will review the extent to which sustainability objectives have been implemented in existing regulation, and examine the effect of specific scenarios on the DNOs eg changing demand behaviour, low-carbon generator connections. In April 2008 Ofgem is due to publish a consultation on the 2010-2015 distribution network price control. In addition, a comprehensive review of regulatory approach has recently been Read more…

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24th
Sep
2008

How environmentally sustainable are current biofuels?

Mr Jeremie Mercier, Imperial College  Today’s liquid transport biofuels are mostly bioethanol and biodiesel, commonly used in low blends with their fossil fuel equivalents gasoline and diesel. Current feedstocks for bioethanol include maize (US), sugar cane (Brazil), wheat and sugar beet (Europe). The major biodiesel feedstocks are soybeans (Argentina, Brazil and the US), oil palm (South-East Asia), sunflower and oilseed rape (Europe). Biofuels are widely promoted for their presumed role in tackling climate change, by virtue of their CO2 emissions reduction potential compared to their fossil fuels equivalents. Thanks to an increased public awareness of climate change and pollution in general, many consumers are ready to buy biofuels, or cars that can run on higher biofuel blends, if it is proven that these biofuels truly help the environment. But depending on practices and feedstocks, biofuels can have significant impacts on the environment at every step of their life-cycle: farming, industrial processing, distribution, combustion… In an effort to raise consumer awareness, more information and transparency is needed, allowing consumers to assess the environmental impact of biofuel use compared to fossil fuels. Read more…

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24th
Sep
2008

The Implications of Low-Carbon Scenarios for Investment Strategies

Mr Thomas Tindall, Oxera. The extent to which we address climate change, and the way in which it may be achieved is highly uncertain, and intertwined with a wide-range of possible developments in socio-economic institutions, demographics, economic growth and consumer values. Scenario analysis is well equipped to deal with this uncertainty, and is being increasingly used to explore future pathways of combined social, economic and environmental systems. From an investment perspective, understanding what we will consume, and what incentives will drive changes in consumption patterns and technology is key to evaluate how reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will affect specific companies and the consequences for investment strategy. Policy and incentive mechanisms causing behavioural change can have dramatically different profit implications between and within sectors, but are often neglected in long-run climate change scenarios. This paper introduces a framework with which to understand the implications of behavioural change embodied within many global low-carbon scenarios. It provides a classification of future snapshots to highlight the extent of changes in production, technology and consumption. Alongside this we provide an analysis of the types of Read more…

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24th
Sep
2008

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