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Climate policy uncertainty and investment behaviour: Evidence from small hydropower plants

Dr Oecon Kristin Linnerud, Cicero In the coming years, Europe will need more electric power from renewable sources to meet our greenhouse gas and renewable targets. However, market and climate policy uncertainty affecting project cash flows could make investors hesitate to build new capacity unless profitability is significant. This follows from real option theory. Whether investors behave in accordance with this theory, is an empirical question. In Norway there are many good sites for small hydropower. Having access to such a site is viewed as holding a real option to invest. Using data from 225 small hydropower projects we study the investment behaviour of the developers.  More specifically, we test whether investments did actually occur at the optimal point in time predicted by an option-based model. This is tested against the alternative hypothesis: that investments are made when the discounted value of future cash flows are equal to or exceeds investment outlays. Our investment models include two stochastic variables: wholesale electricity prices and green certificate prices. We calculate trigger levels for the sum of these prices, and compare these with Read more…

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Climate policy uncertainty and investment behaviour - Presentation.pdf 756.55 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Winter Gas Outlook Prices 2008

David Cox, Pöyry Energy Consulting Provides a detailed analysis of the major drivers to energy prices and the relationship between oil price and the prices for coal, gas and power. Consideration is given to price in forward markets, price risk, global and regional markets, and the potential impact of the credit crunch. Future prices are considered through four views of the future world (Slow-motion Shock; Supply Hell; Demand Crash; and Technology Heaven). It is suggested that oil price weakening will bring down Continental oil-indexed gas contracts, but not before next spring and that Continental gas prices should set the floor for UK gas prices. However, a number of factors could combine to result in much lower prices, such as: a warm winter; low coal prices reducing gas demand in power generation; and lower demand for global LNG resulting in cargoes being “dumped” into the UK. However, if the winter is colder than average and gas from Norway/Continent/LNG does not arrive, the price could rocket upwards. It is recognised that any decrease in liquidity will exasperate the volatility.

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Winter Gas Outlook Prices - 2008.pdf 1.24 MB
8th
Oct
2008

Downloads Archive

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