Downloads / Gas outlook

National Grid : UK Winter Gas Outlook 2016

An interesting winter in prospect ? Simon Durk. Market Insights Manager, National Grid Simon Durk has extensive experience in analytical teams in National Grid and beyond, with particular emphasis on gas demand and supply modelling.  Most recently he led the team that created the views of gas supply for National Grid’s key publications, the Future Energy Scenarios, Gas Ten Year Statement and the Winter and Summer Outlooks. He now has a new role as Market Insights Manager and as such is responsible for turning analysis into insight that informs the industry and helps to cement National Grid’s position at the centre of the energy debate.  

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UK-Gas-Outlook-2016_NGrid.pdf 922.65 KB
17th
Oct
2016

Heat: a Challenge or Opportunity for Natural Gas ?

Professor Nigel Brandon , Director of the Sustainable Gas Institute , Imperial College Professor Nigel Brandon, OBE FREng, is Director of the Sustainable Gas Institute at Imperial College London, Director of the EPSRC funded Hydrogen and Fuel  Cell Hub, and Co-Director of the Energy Storage Hub.  He is a Panel Member of the Task Force on Shale Gas, and was previously Senior Fellow to the Research Council Energy programme, and Director for the Energy Futures Lab at Imperial College London.  Prior to joining Imperial College he held research positions with BP and Rolls Royce, and held the Shell Chair in Sustainable Development in Energy at Imperial College from 2005 to 2009. He was awarded the Royal Academy Silver Medal in 2007, the Inst Civil Engineers Baker Medal in 2011, and the ASME Francis Bacon medal in 2014.  

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Heat-challenge-or-opportunity-for-natural-gas-Brandon.pdf 2.28 MB
17th
Oct
2016

The Future of Gas in the Power Sector

In this presentation Lynsey Tinios, Policy Advisor  Shell,  looks at what the  future role  for gas may be  in the power sector and concludes  that gas can play an important long term role  if policy and regulation is made more coherent, there is a robust emissions trading scheme and  there is Government support for CCS.

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Future-of-gas-in-the-power-sector-shell.pdf 284.5 KB
12th
Oct
2012

Renewables and CCGTS:Competitors or Complementary ?

Andrew  Morris, Director Poyry Energy, looks at the relationship between renewables and Ccgts and whether they are competitors or complementary. He concludes that increasing renewable generation leads to less predictable running patterns for thermal generation plant including CCGTs. As a consequence, gas demand becomes more volatile in many of the largest gas consuming countries in Europe. The gas market is well positioned to be able to cope with the increasingly volatile demand in the short term and with a modest level of investment to meet the  demands in the long term. CCGTs and renewables might compete on a day by day basis, but overall there is a role for both within a low carbon generation mix.

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Renewables-and-gas-poyry.pdf 986.36 KB
12th
Oct
2012

Winter Gas Outlook

Peter Parsons, Forecasting Manager National Grid provides a detailed overview in respect to gas, covering: fuel prices; relative power economics; demand; demand forecasts; peak demand; supply forecasts from UKCS, interconnectors and LNG; and storage capacity for winter 2012/2013. In respect of the outlook for gas,  forward winter fuel prices strongly favour coal burn over gas: weather corrected gas demand forecast to be lower than last winter; the forecast non storage supplies are slightly lower than last winter; LNG uncertainty given increased global demand and Japanese power mix; in 2012/13 storage deliverability should be  higher than previous winter, and  should increase further within winter when new facilities are commissioned. For electricity,  the outlook suggest that average cold spell demand forecast 0.9 GW higher than last winter; notified and assumed generation availability has increased by approximately 1 GW from last winter; demand and full interconnector exports are expected to be met in 1 in 20 conditions.

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UK-Winter-Outlook-National-Grid-2012.pdf 832.23 KB
12th
Oct
2012

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