Downloads / Forecasts

Energy Challenges of our time

Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA March Global challenges and trends in energy use, supply and carbon emissions are outlined. Headline trends include; decreasing global energy efficiency, increased spending on energy imports in the EU and a significant increase in global demand to 2035. Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention. Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand, with the Middle East and North Africa meeting most of oil demand growth to 2035. Coal was the most significant fuel from 2000-10 but a golden age for (unconventional) gas is predicted to 2035. In 2010 global fossil fuel subsidies were $409 billion and renewable energy subsidies were $66 billion. Energy poverty is widespread with 1.3 billion people with no access to electricity and 2.7 billion with no access to clean cooking facilities. Delivering modern energy for all would have significant health benefits and a positive impact on energy security and carbon emissions. Action to reduce global carbon emissions is increasingly urgent with high carbon lock in possible by 2017. There is an urgent need for Read more…

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Energy Challenges of Our Time - 2012.pdf 845.28 KB
23rd
Mar
2012

Oil Supply Analysis from the Goldman Sachs Top230 Study

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs International The Top230 study models the largest 230 new oil and gas developments in the world to provide insight into the development of large new projects, the industry’s ability to deliver them, and the declining rates of the producing base. The study shows that of the largest developments, 13 are within Europe, 25 are within South America, 31 are in the Asia-Pacific, 50 are in North America, 55 are within Asia and the Middle East and 56 are within Africa. Production levels for those fields that are included in the Top230 study, as well as those outside of it, are shown from 2002 (projected to 2014). Key findings in terms of oil supply include: a decline in maturing new projects based on Final Investment Decisions between 2007/09; decline rates in non-OPEC have increased; and the industry’s delivery track record has been very poor. If these trends continue, non-OPEC faces potentially disastrous production declines.

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Oil supply analysis from the Goldman Sachs Top 230 Study 2009.pdf 200.15 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Outlook for the Global Economy and Oil Demand

Christof Rühl, BP The context of global economic stability and growth are considered in relation to the US, China, Germany, Japan and the UK. The link between fiscal deficits and their threat to stability and growth are examined, showing trends in their percentage of GDP for 2008 to 2010. In respect to oil prices and demand, national and global comparisons suggest that demand is recovering. Drivers for future oil price, in the medium term, relate in part to the interplay between OPEC discipline and demand recovery, with these driving price over the medium term. Analysis of production over time, suggests that without further OPEC action, inventories will remain above the five year range for now.

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Outlook for the global economy and oil demand.pdf 198.63 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Winter Gas Outlook Prices 2008

David Cox, Pöyry Energy Consulting Provides a detailed analysis of the major drivers to energy prices and the relationship between oil price and the prices for coal, gas and power. Consideration is given to price in forward markets, price risk, global and regional markets, and the potential impact of the credit crunch. Future prices are considered through four views of the future world (Slow-motion Shock; Supply Hell; Demand Crash; and Technology Heaven). It is suggested that oil price weakening will bring down Continental oil-indexed gas contracts, but not before next spring and that Continental gas prices should set the floor for UK gas prices. However, a number of factors could combine to result in much lower prices, such as: a warm winter; low coal prices reducing gas demand in power generation; and lower demand for global LNG resulting in cargoes being “dumped” into the UK. However, if the winter is colder than average and gas from Norway/Continent/LNG does not arrive, the price could rocket upwards. It is recognised that any decrease in liquidity will exasperate the volatility.

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Winter Gas Outlook Prices - 2008.pdf 1.24 MB
8th
Oct
2008

High Energy Prices and the World Economy

Christopher Allsopp, Oxford Energy Institute The relationship between energy prices and the world economy is examined. World growth has been strong and benign growth is forecast. However, there are risks from oil price increases and volatility as well as global account imbalances and geopolitics. Oil price impacts (so far) appear very different from past oil shocks with a muted effect on inflation. This has implications for policy responses, simulations and price forecasts. Interest rates have been going up largely due to rapid actual and anticipated world growth. Growth forecasts are raising concerns over energy security. In the short run, supply and demand elasticities are low, however in the longer run considerable adaptation is likely. Many believe in a ‘new energy paradigm’ with high and volatile prices. High oil prices encourage alternatives such as tar sands and especially cheap and abundant coal. Both raise serious environment and climate change concerns.

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HIGH-ENERGY-PRICES-AND-THE-WORLD-ECONOMY-2006.pdf 433.81 KB
20th
Sep
2006

Energy Policies in a Global Context

Paul Chambers, Defra Forecast global carbon reductions from 2002 to 2030 are reviewed, indicating that energy efficiency is expected to account for over 50% of emission reductions and renewable energy technologies for 20%. UK policy levers are reviewed together with options across the sectors of transport, industry, business/public sector and households. Policies to address the carbon intensity of supply, energy efficiency, demand reduction and R&D are discussed across these sectors. International policies to address the carbon reduction options of supply, energy efficiency and demand are reviewed.

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Energy_Policies_in_a_Global_Context_2006_pres.pdf 289.19 KB
20th
Sep
2006

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