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Climate and Energy: Where do we stand ?

Peter Vis  Chef de Cabinet of Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action The subject of Peter Vis’ presentation was EU Energy and Climate package that was  considered by The European Council  at its spring meeting on 20-21 March 2014. The Commission’s proposal came out earlier in the year  with key announcements around the overall GHG target, renewables, and EU ETS reform: 2030 GHG target: 40% below 1990 levels, met through domestic measures alone (i.e. without offset credits). This would be the EU’s international offer for a global deal in Paris 2015.  The Commission are not proposing a higher conditional target in the light of a global deal, but have left open the possibility of raising ambition in the light of other countries’ contributions. An EU-wide binding renewable energy target of at least 27% in 2030.  But no binding national level commitments, so not clear how this would be enforced or delivered. EU ETS reform: The Commission has published a legislative proposal for a “market stability reserve”. This would be a rule-based system starting in 2021, with the aim of Read more…

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Climate-and-Energy-where-do-we-stand-Peter-Vis.pdf 817.42 KB
30th
Apr
2014

Prospects for a Climate Change Agreement

Joan MacNaughton reviewed the history of international efforts to reach a climate change agreement and looked at the prospects for global agreement in the future. On prospects for global agreement, she took the view that negotiations for a global agreement will continue to be extremely difficult the  ‘loss and damage’ issue adds to tensions emission reduction pledges are  far short of what is needed for 2 degree  goal but many more countries now have mitigation plans, and many countries looking at carbon pricing (including Korea, seven pilot schemes in China, California and Kazakhstan) In  terms of  the overall prospects for global agreement, there were a number of serious issues and a real risk of the 2o goal becoming unattainable. If it happened at all, then December 2015 in Paris (COP 21) would be a critical event. Prospects were not strong, at least in the absence of either a cataclysmic event or strong political leadership.

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Prospects-for-a-climate-change-agreement1.pdf 329.39 KB
24th
Apr
2013

Co-movements between carbon, energy and financial markets. A multivariate GARCH approach

Mr Nicolas Koch, University of Hamburg This paper jointly investigates time-variations in carbon-energy market and carbon-financial market co-movements, taking the past six years (2005-2011) of the EU ETS operation as research framework. Our first empirical question focuses on correlation asymmetries under different market uncertainty conditions and asks whether correlations between carbon-energy and carbon-financial markets are exacerbated during episodes of financial turmoil or whether we observe a decoupling of these markets. Our second empirical question centers on structural breaks and asks whether the overall level of correlation between carbon, energy and financial markets changed over time. We argue that structural changes with respect to (i) the market design and (ii) the market maturity of the relatively young carbon market should coincide with changing correlation regimes in the Phase I-to-Phase II period. We follow Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005, 2009) and adopt the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model that allows the conditional correlation to change smoothly across up to four regimes directly as a function of observable transition variables. We use smooth transition models because they can capture both gradual Read more…

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Co-movements-between-carbon-energy-and-financial-markets.pdf 309.44 KBKoch_Co-movements-between-carbon-energy-and-financial-markets.pdf 564.16 KB
20th
Sep
2012

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