Downloads / Energy systems modelling

Energy Challenges of our time

Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA March Global challenges and trends in energy use, supply and carbon emissions are outlined. Headline trends include; decreasing global energy efficiency, increased spending on energy imports in the EU and a significant increase in global demand to 2035. Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention. Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand, with the Middle East and North Africa meeting most of oil demand growth to 2035. Coal was the most significant fuel from 2000-10 but a golden age for (unconventional) gas is predicted to 2035. In 2010 global fossil fuel subsidies were $409 billion and renewable energy subsidies were $66 billion. Energy poverty is widespread with 1.3 billion people with no access to electricity and 2.7 billion with no access to clean cooking facilities. Delivering modern energy for all would have significant health benefits and a positive impact on energy security and carbon emissions. Action to reduce global carbon emissions is increasingly urgent with high carbon lock in possible by 2017. There is an urgent need for Read more…

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Energy Challenges of Our Time - 2012.pdf 845.28 KB
23rd
Mar
2012

Household energy bills – impacts of meeting carbon budgets

Mike Thompson, Committee on Climate Change The Climate Change Act requires the CCC to consider the impact of carbon budgets on energy supplies and fuel poverty. Fuel poverty has risen from 2004 to 2010. The CCC focus on assessing costs for dual fuel customers however the total cost of carbon budgets, fiscal impact, competitiveness impacts and technology development are also assessed. Recent increases in bills from 2004 to 2010 (£455) were primarily due to factors unrelated to climate policy (which contributed £75). The CCC expects carbon policies to add around £110 to the average dual-fuel bill by 2020, mainly due to support for investments in low carbon power generation. The CCC identify significant potential for energy efficiency to reduce bills, however, these are currently uncertain and require effective policies. If unlocked they would offset carbon policy costs. Households with electric heating could be disproportionately affected by low-carbon costs.

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The CCC Household Energy Bills impacts of meeting carbon budgets - 2012.pdf 852.88 KB
15th
Mar
2012

World Energy Outlook – A Glimpse into the Future of Energy

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview and insights into the 2010 WEO. It is suggested that recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well short of what is needed for a secure and sustainable energy future. In respect to oil, growing demand for mobility in emerging economies is driving up use, production is shifting away from crude and oil will come from fewer producers; the view is that the age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case. Gas is seen as playing a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs and it is asked whether we may be entering a golden age for gas. It is also recognised that the stronger penetration of natural gas could have profound implications for energy markets and the environment. Although renewables are entering the mainstream, long-term support is needed to boost their competitiveness. Detailed information is provided on climate change and emission reductions, with a recognition that a lack of ambition in Copenhagen/Cancun has increased the Read more…

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World Energy Outlook A glimpse into the future of energy.pdf 539.08 KB
17th
Feb
2011

World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen IEA

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency An overview of the 2010 WEO Reference Scenario to 2030 is provided, discussing: changes in primary energy demand; upstream oil and gas capital expenditures; oil production, issues and prices; and natural gas supply, transportation, prices and market trends. The 450 Scenario is also described in respect to how demand by fuel type needs to change and the abatement of CO2 emissions; along with some key facts relating to the EU, China and the Copenhagen Accord. Some key findings include: the financial crisis has halted the rise in global energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume, based on current policies; oil investment has fallen sharply, posing questions on medium term supply; a sizable glut of natural gas is looming; a 450 path will require massive investments but would bring substantial benefits; natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future; and the Copenhagen Accord takes significant steps forward on international climate policy but is not sufficient to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees.

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World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen.pdf 2.79 MB
18th
Mar
2010

Building a Low Carbon Economy

David Kennedy, The Committee on Climate Change Provides a recap of the UK’s Intended and Interim carbon budgets to 2020 and the opportunities for emission reductions by sector covering: power; residential buildings; non-residential buildings and industry; transport; and agriculture. The macroeconomic impacts of the carbon budgets and the impacts of the recession are set out in respect to GDP against cost, emissions, carbon price and financing. The strategy for meeting the carbon budgets includes a requirement to strengthen key policies in respect to: residential buildings by overcoming known barriers (e.g. lack of information, hassle, procrastination and engagement); power markets by addressing the risks for private and social players under the current market arrangements; electric cars through the provision of interim price support for charging, information, and addressing planning barriers.

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Building a Low Carbon Economy 2009.pdf 448.3 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Building A low carbon Economy . The UK’s contribution to tackling climate change

David Kennedy, The Committee on Climate Change Provides a recap of the UK’s Intended and Interim carbon budgets to 2020 and the opportunities for emission reductions by sector covering: power; residential buildings; non-residential buildings and industry; transport; and agriculture. The macroeconomic impacts of the carbon budgets and the impacts of the recession are set out in respect to GDP against cost, emissions, carbon price and financing. The strategy for meeting the carbon budgets includes a requirement to strengthen key policies in respect to: residential buildings by overcoming known barriers (e.g. lack of information, hassle, procrastination and engagement); power markets by addressing the risks for private and social players under the current market arrangements; electric cars through the provision of interim price support for charging, information, and addressing planning barriers.

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The CCC Building a Low Carbon Economy.pdf 740.93 KB
30th
Mar
2009

World Energy Outlook 2008

Dr Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency The context for the 2008 WEO includes: soaring energy prices to mid-2008, followed by a collapse; the financial crisis and economic slowdown; the possibility that economic worries will divert attention from strategic energy-security and environmental challenges; a possible supply-crunch once the economy recovers; and questions over what will come out of the COP-15 in Copenhagen. Each of these issues is discussed in respect to possible impacts for global energy demand and supply, set out through the IEA’s Reference Scenario and the climate policy scenarios (550 and 450). Details are provided on world primary energy demand, including the role of coal, oil, gas and electricity, and the prospects for oil and gas supplies. The summary suggests that: current energy trends are unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically; oil will remain the leading energy source but the era of cheap oil is over and the oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change; energy and geopolitics will be increasingly interconnected; the world’s energy system need to be decarbonised; and the financial crisis can plant the seeds for Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2008.pdf 1.14 MB
9th
Feb
2009

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview of the WEO 2007 in respect to the IEA’s: Reference Scenario; Alternative Policy Scenario and 450 Stabilisation Case; as well as a High Growth Scenario (China/India), developed in co-operation with China’s NDRC & ERI, and India’s TERI, to provide an analysis of the impact of China and India on the global economy, energy markets and the environment. Detail on each scenario is provided, with links to China and India set out, and the following conclusions are put forward: the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size; the challenge is for all countries to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system; new policies now under consideration would make a major contribution; the next 10 years are critical (including the pace of capacity additions, the fact that technology will be “locked-in” for decades and there will be a growing tightness in oil and gas markets); the challenge is global, so solutions must also be global.

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World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights.pdf 495.55 KB
5th
Dec
2007

World Energy Outlook 2006

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides a detailed summary of WEO 2006. In respect to the IEA’s Reference Scenario, projections to 2030 are given for: world primary energy demand; world oil supply; inter-regional natural gas trade; increases in coal demand; energy-related CO2 emissions (by fuel and by region); cumulative investment needs and global upstream oil and gas investment; access to oil reserves; and energy poverty issues. The findings suggest that in the absence of new policies: security of oil supply is threatened (production in non-OPEC countries is set to peak and production will be increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries); gas security is also a growing concern (Europe’s production has already peaked, the US will follow, and import dependence in both regions and other key regions will grow). Also, investment over the next decade will lock in technology that will remain in use for up to 60 years. Whilst the Reference Scenario projects a vulnerable, dirty and expensive global energy system, WEO 2006 also maps out a cleaner, cleverer and more competitive energy future based on new Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2006.pdf 253.77 KB
26th
Nov
2006

Decentralisation Issues: Decentralised Energy Potential

Dr. Douglas Parr, Greenpeace UK Transmission and distribution are a significant part of UK electricity costs and aging infrastructure requires investment. Decentralised energy requires less transmission and distribution investment than a centralised system. The Greenpeace World Alliance for Decentralised Energy (WADE) report models the energy system and was applied to the UK to compare the costs of a nuclear centralised system against a renewable decentralised system over 20 years. Results suggest that a decentralised system is more effective at reducing CO2 emissions, natural gas use and capital and retail costs than a centralised nuclear system. However it should be noted that the cost differences are relatively small and there is some uncertainty on future costs. Examples are given of successful approaches to decentralised energy such as Woking, London and Aberdeen. Several political leaders support decentralised energy systems and there is scope for distributed generation to positively influence consumer energy awareness and behaviour.

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Decentralised-Energy-Potential-2006-.pdf 696.66 KB
20th
Sep
2006

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