Downloads / emerging markets

Spatial Panel Data Models and Fuel Demand in Brazil

Dr Gervasio Santos, Federal University of Bahia The objective of this paper is to estimate the price and income elasticity for gasoline and ethanol in the fuel market for light vehicles in Brazil using spatial panel data models. The presence of two main fuels – gasoline and ethanol – in this market makes it considerably competitive. In addition, vehicular natural gas (VNG) also has a marginal presence in the market. Besides diversification, there are three main spatial features of fuel supply that might influence heterogeneity in the behavior of regional consumers. First, sugar-cane ethanol production is concentrated in some states. Second, besides marginal imports of gasoline, its production also is concentrated in some states. And third, along with the small share of VNG, production and logistical problems lead to a concentration of supply in a few states and cities. As a consequence, consumer behavior is heterogeneous and directly and indirectly influenced by different supply gaps and transportation and distribution costs. For this reason, there may be spatial autocorrelation patterns in fuel demand. Thus, spatial panel data models are used to Read more…

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Spatial-Panel-Data-Models-and-Fuel-Demand-in-Brazil.pdf 515.64 KBSANTOS-Spatial_Panel_Data_Model_and_Fuel_Demand_in_Brazil-6mw.pdf 663.33 KB
20th
Sep
2012

Resource Revolution

Jeremy Oppenheim, McKinsey Global Institute The next twenty years will see a 35% increase in resource demand, driven by 3 billion new middle-class consumers. This will require a resource revolution that: aggressively maximises currently available productivity opportunities; enhances access to resource supply; and accelerates the next frontier of resource innovation. It is suggested that there are seven priority areas for action in order to realise this resource revolution. Four relate to ‘classic’ market failures, including: a lack of property rights; pricing of externalities; capital market failures; and dealing with the ‘public good’ nature of innovation. The other three go beyond standard market failures, and include: the need for new, integrated institutional approaches to resource governance; building awareness of resource-related risks; and shaping mindsets and consumer behaviour. These issues are discussed within the context of growing global wealth and trends in commodities, including historic prices and price volatility for a number of key resources, including energy, food, metals and agricultural materials.

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Resource Revolution.pdf 2.95 MB
19th
Oct
2011

Cancun and the implications for UK climate change policy 2011

Jim Watson, Sussex Energy Group Provides an overview of the Cancun climate negotiations and outcomes, highlighting positive outcomes and a number of issues that remain unresolved, linking back to the pledges made at Copenhagen by Annex 1 and developing countries. Discussion on the technology and finance aspects of the climate change talks includes technology transfer and its role within the innovation process and the potential role of Climate Technology Centres. The implications for the UK are set out in respect to the Climate Change Act, the provision of international finance, the impact of the recession and the need for demonstrating progress and competitiveness.

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Cancun and the implications for UK Climate change policy 2011.pdf 727.74 KB
27th
Jan
2011

Energy Equity and Innovation in Emerging Countries

Mr Sebastián del Hoyo, University of Buenos Aires The ability to produce innovation on a large scale is one of the key factors behind the creation of a developed economy: an economy of knowledge.  When considering most of the countries in the emerging world, it is seen that many of them rely heavily on natural resources to develop their economies and societies. The main argument is that those countries have competitive advantages in doing so – think oil in the Middle East or agriculture in Latin America. There are some other countries that are more aware of the importance of industrialization for the development of their economies. Energy is one of the most important levers in human development and, as such, acts as a key factor in determining the economic development of all countries. In addition, the inequality within and across countries between those who have access and those who do not is on the increase. This paper is aimed at answering how could emerging economies will be able to play by the rules in terms of property rights and Read more…

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Energy Equity and Innovation in Emerging Countries - Paper.pdf 445.46 KBEnergy Equity and Innovation in Emerging Countries - Presentation.pdf 738.23 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

The Institutional Framework for China’s Energy Transition

Professor Philip Andrews-Speed, University of Dundee How China manages its transition to a low carbon economy though the reform of its energy sector is of critical importance the whole world. Through an examination of the institutions of energy governance in China, this paper identifies a number of key features which are likely to determine the future evolution of its energy sector. At one level are the embedded institutions which have their roots in more than four thousand years of history and derive from the country’s origin as an hydraulic agrarian regime. These include the preference for conformity, the importance of  personal relationships, and attitudes towards truth.  The way that natural resources are governed is also coloured by traditional views on the relationship between man and nature, on self-reliance, and on the role of the state. At another level, analysis of the current institutional environment shows how the formal structures government, the Communist Party and the legal system operate in the context of these deeply rooted values to determine policy making and implementation in the energy sector. As a consequence, China’s Read more…

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The Institutional Framework for China’s Energy Transition - Paper.pdf 84.82 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Passenger Road Transport in the Long Run

Katharina Gruenberg, Shell Research Ltd In a rapidly changing world the demand for energy seems ever increasing. Good insight into future energy demand levels of now developing countries is usually obtained from the countries that have already climbed up the so-called energy ladder based on economic drivers. Commonly acknowledged, the energy economies of the countries will vary further by geographic and demographic variables: indisputably, India, being warmer and more dispersed, will exhibit a different domestic heating and transport patterns of energy consumption than the ‘average OECD country’. The question is: How different? What will the patterns of the developing countries look like in the future and what is the impact at the world level? And what is the time frame we are talking about? Shell is known for its interest in long-term future energy consumption, through work such as “Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050” published in 2008. This presentation will show the results of further incorporating important country-specific characteristics into our long-term outlooks for energy.

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Passenger Road Transport in the Long Run - Presentation.pdf 136.46 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

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