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World Energy Outlook – A Glimpse into the Future of Energy

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview and insights into the 2010 WEO. It is suggested that recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well short of what is needed for a secure and sustainable energy future. In respect to oil, growing demand for mobility in emerging economies is driving up use, production is shifting away from crude and oil will come from fewer producers; the view is that the age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case. Gas is seen as playing a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs and it is asked whether we may be entering a golden age for gas. It is also recognised that the stronger penetration of natural gas could have profound implications for energy markets and the environment. Although renewables are entering the mainstream, long-term support is needed to boost their competitiveness. Detailed information is provided on climate change and emission reductions, with a recognition that a lack of ambition in Copenhagen/Cancun has increased the Read more…

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World Energy Outlook A glimpse into the future of energy.pdf 539.08 KB
17th
Feb
2011

World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen IEA

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency An overview of the 2010 WEO Reference Scenario to 2030 is provided, discussing: changes in primary energy demand; upstream oil and gas capital expenditures; oil production, issues and prices; and natural gas supply, transportation, prices and market trends. The 450 Scenario is also described in respect to how demand by fuel type needs to change and the abatement of CO2 emissions; along with some key facts relating to the EU, China and the Copenhagen Accord. Some key findings include: the financial crisis has halted the rise in global energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume, based on current policies; oil investment has fallen sharply, posing questions on medium term supply; a sizable glut of natural gas is looming; a 450 path will require massive investments but would bring substantial benefits; natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future; and the Copenhagen Accord takes significant steps forward on international climate policy but is not sufficient to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees.

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World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen.pdf 2.79 MB
18th
Mar
2010

World Energy Outlook 2008

Dr Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency The context for the 2008 WEO includes: soaring energy prices to mid-2008, followed by a collapse; the financial crisis and economic slowdown; the possibility that economic worries will divert attention from strategic energy-security and environmental challenges; a possible supply-crunch once the economy recovers; and questions over what will come out of the COP-15 in Copenhagen. Each of these issues is discussed in respect to possible impacts for global energy demand and supply, set out through the IEA’s Reference Scenario and the climate policy scenarios (550 and 450). Details are provided on world primary energy demand, including the role of coal, oil, gas and electricity, and the prospects for oil and gas supplies. The summary suggests that: current energy trends are unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically; oil will remain the leading energy source but the era of cheap oil is over and the oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change; energy and geopolitics will be increasingly interconnected; the world’s energy system need to be decarbonised; and the financial crisis can plant the seeds for Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2008.pdf 1.14 MB
9th
Feb
2009

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview of the WEO 2007 in respect to the IEA’s: Reference Scenario; Alternative Policy Scenario and 450 Stabilisation Case; as well as a High Growth Scenario (China/India), developed in co-operation with China’s NDRC & ERI, and India’s TERI, to provide an analysis of the impact of China and India on the global economy, energy markets and the environment. Detail on each scenario is provided, with links to China and India set out, and the following conclusions are put forward: the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size; the challenge is for all countries to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system; new policies now under consideration would make a major contribution; the next 10 years are critical (including the pace of capacity additions, the fact that technology will be “locked-in” for decades and there will be a growing tightness in oil and gas markets); the challenge is global, so solutions must also be global.

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World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights.pdf 495.55 KB
5th
Dec
2007

World Energy Outlook 2006

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides a detailed summary of WEO 2006. In respect to the IEA’s Reference Scenario, projections to 2030 are given for: world primary energy demand; world oil supply; inter-regional natural gas trade; increases in coal demand; energy-related CO2 emissions (by fuel and by region); cumulative investment needs and global upstream oil and gas investment; access to oil reserves; and energy poverty issues. The findings suggest that in the absence of new policies: security of oil supply is threatened (production in non-OPEC countries is set to peak and production will be increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries); gas security is also a growing concern (Europe’s production has already peaked, the US will follow, and import dependence in both regions and other key regions will grow). Also, investment over the next decade will lock in technology that will remain in use for up to 60 years. Whilst the Reference Scenario projects a vulnerable, dirty and expensive global energy system, WEO 2006 also maps out a cleaner, cleverer and more competitive energy future based on new Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2006.pdf 253.77 KB
26th
Nov
2006

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