Downloads / conference 2012

The small scale feed-in tariff in Great Britain : its role in electricity system transition

Mr Jimmy Aldridge, University of Exeter The feed-in tariff for small-scale low-carbon generation was introduced across GB in April 2010 and has resulted in the deployment of large numbers of solar photovoltaic installations and some increases in wind and hydro installations. The introduction of independently owned decentralised generation to the network marks a significant remove from the characteristics of the incumbent electricity regime based upon centralised, large-scale, long-running, carbon-intensive assets. But the scheme has been marred by a number of changes and reviews resulting from a lack of clarity over the objectives of the scheme, a crash in global module prices and some unforeseen developments within the sector. These changes have rocked the nascent small-scale renewable industry, sharply reducing the number of installations and questioning the UK government’s tolerance for potentially disruptive innovation in the electricity industry. This paper outlines the short tumultuous history of the feed-in tariff and the reasons for its problems, and it presents empirical analysis based on a set of interviews with stakeholders in the small-scale renewable sector and key actors from the wider electricity regime. Read more…

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The-small-scale-feed-in-tariff-its-role-in-electricity-system-transition-Jimmy-Aldridge.pdf 2.58 MB
19th
Sep
2012

Exploring policies for the transition towards electric vehicles

In order to meet the target of 450 ppm CO2-equivalent by 2050, a minimum of 50% energy-related GHG emission reduction needs to be achieved globally. The transport of passengers and goods, mainly dominated by road vehicles, is responsible for 26% of global energy-related GHG emissions (IEA, 2010). A reduction of its emissions by 95% will be necessary to compensate for other sectors where it is harder to reduce emissions, such as aviation and heavy industry (DECC, 2010).  One way, is the electri?cation of the transport sector. However, the electri?cation the current transport system relies on a range of vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), battery electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEV), which depend on the availability of manufacturing capabilities and refuelling/recharging infrastructures.   The challenge is to initiate and drive forward major structural changes to the current road passenger transport system, the related industries, as well as to the society: its needs, expectations and behaviours. The whole transition process towards electric mobility will be a result of interactions between di?erent groups of customers, industries and policy makers, Read more…

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MAZUR_Christoph_Exploring_policies_for_the_transition_towards_electric_vehicles.pdf 548.1 KB
19th
Sep
2012

Investigating possible bias issues arising from improper use of the internal rate of return when used for decision-making on renewable energy technology investments

Ms Tanja Groth, Aarhus University/Stirling.DK ApS The internal rate of return (IRR) is, together with net present value (NPV), the most commonly used investment decision tool for management (Ryan and Ryan, 2002). Presented as a simple percentage, it is an easily grasped concept which readily lends itself to instant investment comparisons. The IRR is often used in conjunction with net present value (NPV) calculations to estimate the benefit of a given investment decision. Simply put, the IRR is the rate at which the benefits from an investment are equal to the investment itself.  However, using the IRR calculation indiscriminately can result in errors, particularly when disregarding the implicit reinvestment assumption, ranking of mutually exclusive projects and the potential for multiple IRRs. These errors can lead to bias in the investment decision, particularly when applied to energy investment decisions where mutually exclusive projects with different investment costs and different lifetimes are compared. Almost all renewable energy technologies (RETs) share the characteristics of initial high capital costs followed by a stream of relatively low variable costs over the lifetime of the investment, Read more…

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Groth-How-the-IRR-drives-bias-in-energy-investment-decisions.pdf 497.86 KB
19th
Sep
2012

Effects of Utilisation in Real-time on Electricity Capacity Assessments

Mr Alasdair Bruce, University of Edinburgh If significant decarbonisation of the electricity sector progresses, it is expected that a large proportion of the electricity generated in a number of liberalised energy markets will come from variable wind turbine generators and fixed-output nuclear power plants. At least in the near future, thermal generation (gas and coal) will be required to fill in the remaining generation after wind and nuclear. If the system requires low overall CO2 emissions then this thermal generation will have to be equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Thermal plants without CCS will have to be used in moderation to limit electricity (and energy) sector CO2 emissions. It is likely that thermal generation with CCS will have to be operated flexibly to manage wind output variability and provide real-time demand/supply balancing. A meteorological wind resource data set was obtained containing simulated chronological hourly wind speeds for a large number of onshore and offshore UK wind sites. Hourly capacity factors were simulated and used to create a number of deterministic scenarios with different levels of wind penetration and Read more…

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BRUCE_Effects_of_Utilisation_in_Real_time_on_Electricity_FINAL.pdf 775.93 KB
19th
Sep
2012

The Resource Curse Hypothesis Re-visited – Evidence using Heterogeneos Panel Analysis

Mr Mahmud Suleiman, University of Surrey The apparent notion that natural resource abundance leads to lower growth performance has attracted much attention in empirical literature. Most of these studies follow Sachs and Warner (1995) cross-sectional estimation technique. This paper therefore re-investigates the resource curse hypothesis in a panel data context using oil production and oil reserve as proxy of natural resource, in an effort to estimate the long and short-run effects of oil resource abundance on economic growth of  25 oil producing developing countries. The countries are divided into three sub-groups to observe possible differences (if any) between group of countries that enjoy huge economic rent from crude oil export and other developing countries that are net importers of the product. Panel A constitutes a group of OPEC member countries, panel B is a group of other oil exporting developing counties that are not members of OPEC while panel C is a group of net oil importing developing countries. In testing for the resource curse hypothesis, this work recognises there is substantial degree of heterogeneity in the growth experience of Read more…

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Suleiman-Resource-curse-hypothesis-revisited.pdf 1.4 MB
19th
Sep
2012

The role of China in the Future of Global Gas Market Developments

Miss Yichi Zhang, University of Cambridge Being the world second-largest economy as well as the second-largest consumer of hydrocarbons, China has seen its energy consumption grow dramatically over the last few years. Its natural gas demand has also become a major factor influencing future developments of the global gas market. Despite this growing needs, China has limited conventional gas resources and thus the prospect of growing dependence on imported natural gas has become a major political concern for Chinese government. Research about China’s growing demand for natural gas becomes very relevant for China itself and other gas consumers who will be increasingly rely on LNG markets. In this research we will focus primarily on the following questions: will China be able to support its economy with secure and affordable natural gas in coming decades? If the answer is yes, what is the most cost effective way? Finally, what are implications of soaring gas demand for the rest of the world? We consider four policy options for Chinese governments to feed its “gas-hungry” economy. The first option is to build new Read more…

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YichiZhang_The_Economics_of_LNG_Export_Contract_Flexibility.pdf 1.02 MB
19th
Sep
2012

Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Efficiency and Innovation in Power Distribution Networks: The Case of Norway

Mr Rahmatallah Poudineh, Heriot-Watt University Following the liberalisation of the electricity market in Norway since the early 1998, the focus of regulator was mainly on cost reduction and efficiency as the main driving force behind the idea of competitive electricity market. However; sufficient and efficient investment is expected to be the next key issue in regulation of distribution and transmission networks as many of the current energy policy objectives such as the European electricity market integration, increasing the share of renewable in the energy mix, improving quality of services and roll out of the smart meters can only be realised through further investments. The conventional cost-based regulation only stimulates allocative efficiency and strongly encourages overcapitalization (Averch-Johnson-Effect). On the other hand, the current forms of incentive regulation only lead to productive efficiency, predominantly incentivizing short term efficiency in terms of operational expenditures. Moreover, additional instruments such as quality regulation and/or additional allowances may incentivize replacement and expansions investments respectively. However, from a theoretical point of view, incentive regulation does not motivate dynamic efficiency in the sense of explicit regulatory stimuli for Read more…

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Empirical-Analysis-of-Dynamic-Efficiency-and-Innovation-inpower-networks.pdf 337.83 KB
19th
Sep
2012

Identifying Uncertainty in Energy System Models

Mr Will Usher, UCL Energy Institute The rapidly maturing field of energy system modelling integrates disciplines that operate under fundamentally different assumptions about uncertainty. With some notable exceptions, these uncertainties have not been given the attention they require, due to the undesirable burden of complexity they introduce. This is problematic as energy system models are constructed to support complex decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, the uncertainties across these disciplines appear intractable, especially given the undue attention by the media and partisan ‘think- tanks’ that can undermine public confidence in both science and policy. But there are plenty of techniques available to manage uncertainty, including sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. These techniques can increase transparency, highlight areas of models and research that are lacking, and provide insights that are resilient to changes in assumptions. Prior to a full scale uncertainty analysis, it is essential to deconstruct the way in which uncertainty is understood within each discipline. For example, an economist’s understanding of uncertainty of economic growth (a driver of energy demand) within the complex multi-layered economic system is very different to Read more…

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Usher_Identifying_Uncertainties_In_Energy_System_Models.pdf 81.75 KB
19th
Sep
2012

A panel model for predicting the diversity of internal temperatures from English dwellings

Mr Scott Kelly, University of Cambridge Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock is developed. The model offers an important link that connects building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables. The model is able to predict internal temperatures across a heterogeneous building stock to within ~0.71°C at 95% confidence and explain 45% of the variance of internal temperature between dwellings. The model confirms hypothesis from sociology and psychology that habitual behaviours are important drivers of home energy consumption. In addition, the model offers the possibility to quantify take-back (direct rebound effect) owing to increased internal temperatures from the installation of energy efficiency measures. The presence of thermostats or thermostatic radiator valves (TRV) are shown to reduce average internal temperatures, however, the use of an automatic timer is statistically insignificant. The number of occupants, household Read more…

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Predicting-the-diversity-of-internal-dwelling-temperatures-from-the-English-residential-sector.pdf 1.78 MBKelly_Predicting-the-diversity-of-dwelling-temperatures-using-panel-regression-methods-small-7.pdf 582.48 KB
19th
Sep
2012

European Electricity Co-operation: The Role of Import and Export in CO2 Reduction

Miss Kwanruetai Boonyasana, The University of Leicester In order to limit global warming and avoid the devastating effects of climate change, the European Commission proposed a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for the European Union (EU) to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. As with most economies, the greater part of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Europe comes from the production of energy, especially electricity. To meet targets aimed at tackling climate change, the EU is trying to decrease reliance on electricity generated from fossil fuels while promoting electricity production from renewable energy sources. However, renewable energy has problems with regard to economic costs and instability of electricity supply. Nuclear power generation involves issues of safety and radioactive waste management. Therefore, a further option should be of interest. Since 1990, growth in world net electricity generation has outpaced growth in total world electricity consumption, and this surplus is expected to account for one third of electricity generation by 2035. This suggests that international trade in electricity could prove beneficial by increasing efficiency of electricity markets as well as Read more…

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Boonyasana-European_Electricity_Co-operation.pdf 896.12 KB
19th
Sep
2012

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