Downloads / Coal

Carbon Taxation if Liquefied Coal will (not) Substitute Oil and Gas

Mr Florian Habermacher, Inst. of Intl. and Applied Econ. Research, Uni. of St.Gallen Current and conceivable near-term climate protection measures are regionally constrained. We analyse leakage effects of unilateral climate policies, separately for major fossil fuels. In a business-as-usual scenario without future technological changes, unilateral oil (or gas) consumption reductions through climate protection measures are subject to very large leakage effects over the long run: because these fuels are strongly exhaustible, our dynamic fuel-market model shows that demand in the part of the world without stringent climate policies will offset a large fraction of domestic emission reductions in the medium-run notably because the lower domestic consumption reduces the fuel prices on the global markets. This is different for coal, which is much more abundant even in the medium-term future. Because coal reserves are so large, simulations show that medium-term leakage rates are low for domestic coal reductions, as these reductions have a comparatively small effect on the coal prices in other parts of the world. In this scenario, a unilateral carbon tax on coal emissions should correspond approximately to the Read more…

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Carbon-Taxation-if-Liquefied-Coal-will-not-Substitute-Oil.pdf 473.99 KBHabermacher_Carbon-Taxation-if-Liquefied-Coal-will-not-Substitute-Oil.pdf 851.95 KB
20th
Sep
2012

Pathways to a low carbon economy – the role of natural gas and biofuels

Ben Taylor, Shell To 2050 there is an expectation of rising energy demand, increasing supply pressure and growing impacts from climate change. Shell’s response to the challenge is based on supplying more natural gas and biofuels, progressing CCS and improving the energy efficiency of their operations. Gas and biofuels are seen as essential components to a low carbon economy. Gas has both short and long-term advantages for the energy mix: coal to gas switching is the quickest and cheapest way to meet near term emission reduction targets; it is the cheapest and most flexible complementary supply to intermittent renewables; and with CCS is part of a long term solution.  In respect to the growing demand for mobility, for both passengers and freight, there is no single solution, but vehicle efficiency and lower CO2 liquid fuels, particularly biofuels will play important roles.

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Pathways to a low carbon economy the role of natural gas and biofuels - 2011.pdf 940.65 KB
22nd
Sep
2011

Where Next for US Policy on CO2 and Climate Issues?

David Robinson, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and The Brattle Group Provides an overview of recent changes to US policy on climate change. This is discussed in respect to the climate change “alliance” that exists between the EU and US. The contents, process and compromises made in trying to pass recent US climate legislation are set out, with a view that the prospects for any climate change legislation are now dim, with even a risk of pull back at a state level, such as within California. The implications for inaction both within the US and globally are discussed. In respect to coal-based power, proposals from the EPA may result in a bipartisan deal, although this will require support from the coal-based states, so a deal with the power sector will be key. If this fails it is highlighted that the US will have no legislation for two plus years and that this will hurt US green tech, trade and UNFCCC negotiations. As such it is suggested that the EU should rethink its alliances and consider closer relations with China.

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Where next for US policy on CO2 and Climate Issues 2010.pdf 142.65 KB
18th
Oct
2010

Contract Renegotiation and Rent Re-Redistribution: Who Gets Raked Over the Coals?

Dr Ian Lange, University of Stirling Policy shocks affect the rent distribution in long-term contracts, which can lead to such contracts being renegotiated.  We seek an understanding of what aspects of contract design, in the face of a substantial policy shock, affect the propensity to renegotiate.  We test our hypotheses using data on U.S. coal contracts after the policy shock of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Contracts are divided into two categories, those that were renegotiated following the shock and those that were not and their characteristics are used to determine how they influence whether or not a contract was ultimately renegotiated.  Results provide guidance on rent re-distribution and contract renegotiation more generally and are applicable to contemporary policy issues such as climate change legislation.

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Contract Renegotiation and Rent Re-Redistribution - Presentation.pdf 498.94 KBContract Renegotiation and Rent Re-Redistribution - Paper.pdf 287.78 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2009

Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides an overview of what happened in the previous winter, before considering the outlook for 2009/10. During the previous winter, there were periods of cold weather lasting around two weeks, but overall the winter was average; although one impact of the January cold snap was that it drove UK gas demand to near record levels. There were also: widespread gas supply disruptions across Europe in January as a consequence of Russia/Ukraine disputes; unprecedented IUK winter export flows; and higher demands met through significant flows from UK storage facilities at an early stage of the winter period, leading to concerns over the UK’s resilience to a late winter supply shock or prolonged period of cold weather. However, the impact of the economic recession also lowered overall demand. Looking forward to the 2009/10 winter, it is anticipated that this will be milder than the previous year, with a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter. Forecast gas demand (weather corrected) is 2.5% lower, on top of 6% reduction last winter, whilst forecast non storage supply is similar Read more…

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Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2009.pdf 1.19 MB
8th
Oct
2009

Making a Low Carbon Economy Happen

Ben Irons, McKinsey and Company Using low carbon abatement cost curves provides insights into what will be requirement for a low carbon economy, with a global abatement cost curve for 2030 shown. In addition to the significant opportunities across all sectors for energy efficiency, a low carbon economy will also require a low carbon power sector. In terms of investment, it is estimated that incremental investment of over €300b per year through 2015 is needed, but only a third of that investment requirement is currently attractive to investors. Energy policy will play a key role in attracting the necessary private investment.

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Making a Low carbon economy happen 2009.pdf 167.21 KB
21st
Sep
2009

China’s Role in Advancing Climate Policies in the Face of a Global Recession

Antony Froggatt , Chatham House. China plays a key role in the interactions between global energy prices, CO2 emissions and global economic output. In terms of existing policies, energy security concern is the main driver, although this can also bring environmental benefits, they include plans to: decrease energy intensity by 20% in the current five year plan; increase the deployment of renewables; plans for new nuclear generation. The next Chinese five year plan may introduce carbon intensity targets for the first time. The impact of, and response to, the economic crisis are also discussed, with a massive decrease in exports being evident, with policy seeking to encourage domestic consumption and use stimulus packages for significant infrastructure; alongside national technology developments in respect to renewables, vehicles and coal. In terms of China’s role in advancing climate policies a number of questions remain, including: the relationship between energy demand and manufacturing; how the global economic recovery may stimulate the Chinese economy, energy demand and emissions; and how these will impact upon global energy, emissions curves, and trade balances.

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Chinas role in Advancing climate policies in recession 2009.pdf 651.11 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Kingsnorth and the Carbon Capture Question

Jim Watson, Sussex Energy Group, SPRU The development of CCS within the UK is discussed in the context of a potential new coal fired plant at Kingsnorth and the proposal that it would be CCS ready. CCS is seen as critical for GHG mitigation, but technical performance, economics and long term liabilities are very uncertain. Whilst the UK has been a leader in terms of the commitment to demonstration plant, detail on how this will happen is disappointing and has run into problems in terms of policy responses for handling applications for new coal plants before CCS is available. A key policy challenge is the balance between energy versus climate security, linking to coal imports, gas supplies, gas storage and diversity of supply. It is argued that mandatory emissions standard for new power plants would be a useful policy development.

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Kingsnorth and the Carbon Capture Question 2008.pdf 296.67 KB
19th
Nov
2008

Oil Markets in 2008

Paul Horsnell, Barclays Capital Provides a detailed overview of oil markets in 2008, considering drivers to demand, growth and price. Annual changes to the forward curve of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) show both the rate at which oil prices have risen since 2004 and the movement in the back end of the curve (dollars per barrel). The choices made by OPEC are shown, in terms of their average output over time and this is considered against projected demand growth in 2008, estimates of supply growth from non-OPEC countries, and supply decreases (e.g. UK, Norway, Mexico). The oil market balances between OPEC and non-OPEC, in terms of supply and demand, are set for 2006 to 2008. A breakdown of the incremental oil supplies is given (OPEC, non-OPEC, Canadian Tar Sands, Coal to liquids and biofuels) contrasting US Department for Energy and Barclays Capital projections to 2030.

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Oil Markets in 2008.pdf 699.78 KB
17th
Jan
2008

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