Downloads / 2009 conference

Energy Efficiency and Energy Demand Perspectives

Nick Eyre, Oxford University Within the UK, domestic energy use has been rising since 1970, particularly in respect to electricity, linking to the consumer society. This raises a number of issues. It is apparent that we need to invest mostly in small demand side projects, but this debate is generally ignored within emerging policies. Evidence also shows that investment in energy efficiency works, but the focus tends to be on emerging technologies, rather than people and skills. Finally, given that consumerism drives demand upwards and is unsustainable, it is questionable why efforts to move out of recession continue to be dominated by encouraging consumerism.

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Energy Efficiency and Energy Demand Perspectives 2009.pdf 35.02 KB
21st
Sep
2009

How can Transport Change Enough?

Abigail Bristow, Loughborough University A range of issues for encouraging a shift towards low carbon transport are discussed. Recent trends show that many indicators are moving in the right direction in terms of passengers, freight and vehicles, but there is a need to reinforce and encourage these positive developments to continue. In part, this will require more effort to encourage behaviour change, which is necessary, but currently underplayed in policy, with a preference tending to be shown towards technology solutions. Possible costs of different measures are shown, based on a MAC curve from the Impact Assessment of the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport. Ultimately, it is suggested that an overarching framework is needed, whilst the public tend to support ‘pull’ measures, these tend to be less effective and instead there is a need for ‘push’ measures that provide a consistent framework for change, possibly through building support for framing measures if they are perceived to be both fair and effective. To help facilitate change there should also be support for local innovation, as well as support to help develop niche Read more…

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How can transport change enough 2009.pdf 458.45 KB
21st
Sep
2009

China’s Role in Advancing Climate Policies in the Face of a Global Recession

Antony Froggatt , Chatham House. China plays a key role in the interactions between global energy prices, CO2 emissions and global economic output. In terms of existing policies, energy security concern is the main driver, although this can also bring environmental benefits, they include plans to: decrease energy intensity by 20% in the current five year plan; increase the deployment of renewables; plans for new nuclear generation. The next Chinese five year plan may introduce carbon intensity targets for the first time. The impact of, and response to, the economic crisis are also discussed, with a massive decrease in exports being evident, with policy seeking to encourage domestic consumption and use stimulus packages for significant infrastructure; alongside national technology developments in respect to renewables, vehicles and coal. In terms of China’s role in advancing climate policies a number of questions remain, including: the relationship between energy demand and manufacturing; how the global economic recovery may stimulate the Chinese economy, energy demand and emissions; and how these will impact upon global energy, emissions curves, and trade balances.

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Chinas role in Advancing climate policies in recession 2009.pdf 651.11 KB
21st
Sep
2009

American Developments and Transatlantic Linking: advancing climate policies in the face of a global recession

Cameron Hepburn, Oxford University An overview of US climate bills, in context of EPA Regulations, the Waxman-Markely Bill and the Boxer-Kerry Bill is set out. Although action is happening fast, it is suggested that any progress prior to the Copenhagen climate talks is not anticipated. Comparing and linking analysis on carbon trading and global carbon markets between the US and the EU, suggests that, with fair political winds and careful steering, multilateral linking could occur over time. Linking different carbon trading schemes would bring the benefit of reducing costs and creating economic surplus.

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American developments and transatlantic linking 2009.pdf 1.53 MB
21st
Sep
2009

Green Fiscal Stimulus Packages

Samuel Fankhauser, Grantham Research Institute, LSE Sets out the case for a green fiscal stimulus, initially through evidence for its impact, before considering the impact of the recession on green investment. It questions why a fiscal stimulus is needed, suggesting the crisis is one of demand and that monetary instruments are exhausted; and that in terms of a green fiscal stimulus, it is highlighted that many green measures fit the stimulus criteria (i.e. they are targeted, timely, temporary) and that green investment makes sense anyway. Since the announcement of green stimulus packages there has been some boost to demand e.g. car scrappage schemes, but there have been mixed environmental benefits and little on energy efficiency. Since then talk has shifted more towards the use of spending cuts. It is questioned whether there is a need for a policy response to help underpin the carbon price and to better facilitate access to credit.

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Green Fiscal Stimulus Packages 2009.pdf 26.58 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Are Financial Investors Destabilising the Oil Market?

Leo Drollas. Centre for Global Energy Studies Consideration is given to what has caused the extreme volatility in oil price in the last two years and whether this relates to fundamentals or the oil futures market. It is suggested that what determines oil prices in the short run is linked in part to inventory disequilibrium’s, with desired inventories being a function of oil demand, stocks and the shape of the forward curve. The forward curve is exclusively a product of the futures market. Whilst oil fundamentals affect price, the instability of the industry impacts on expectations in terms of future supplies, demand, and costs, resulting in price volatility and a concomitant need for hedging. Future prices offer speculators an opportunity to profit from the oil market’s instability, but speculators are not responsible for the oil market’s instability, rather they can exaggerate oil price movements.

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Are financial investors destabilising the oil market 2009.pdf 1.23 MB
21st
Sep
2009

Oil Supply Analysis from the Goldman Sachs Top230 Study

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs International The Top230 study models the largest 230 new oil and gas developments in the world to provide insight into the development of large new projects, the industry’s ability to deliver them, and the declining rates of the producing base. The study shows that of the largest developments, 13 are within Europe, 25 are within South America, 31 are in the Asia-Pacific, 50 are in North America, 55 are within Asia and the Middle East and 56 are within Africa. Production levels for those fields that are included in the Top230 study, as well as those outside of it, are shown from 2002 (projected to 2014). Key findings in terms of oil supply include: a decline in maturing new projects based on Final Investment Decisions between 2007/09; decline rates in non-OPEC have increased; and the industry’s delivery track record has been very poor. If these trends continue, non-OPEC faces potentially disastrous production declines.

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Oil supply analysis from the Goldman Sachs Top 230 Study 2009.pdf 200.15 KB
21st
Sep
2009

OPEC Behaviour through the Lenses of the Oil Price Cycle

Bassam Fattouh, OIES Since 1986 the year-on-year change in global oil demand has generally exceeded total non-OPEC supply, with the gap increasingly met through OPEC. This is leading to a gradual decline in spare capacity and upward pressure on oil prices. Analysing OPEC’s response to this shows a cyclical pattern and an asymmetry is also evident, in terms of their objectives in a falling market, when they seek to defend oil prices from falling below some level deemed unacceptable; as well as in a rising  market where OPEC seek to increase output in response to customers’ demand at market determined prices. The mechanism and issues associated with these responses are described. Looking ahead, a range of uncertainties continue to exist, including these asymmetrical responses, as well as issues relating to inventories, spare capacity, and the views between OPEC and oil importers.

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OPEC behaviour through the lenses of the oil price cycle 2009.pdf 1.43 MB
21st
Sep
2009

Outlook for the Global Economy and Oil Demand

Christof Rühl, BP The context of global economic stability and growth are considered in relation to the US, China, Germany, Japan and the UK. The link between fiscal deficits and their threat to stability and growth are examined, showing trends in their percentage of GDP for 2008 to 2010. In respect to oil prices and demand, national and global comparisons suggest that demand is recovering. Drivers for future oil price, in the medium term, relate in part to the interplay between OPEC discipline and demand recovery, with these driving price over the medium term. Analysis of production over time, suggests that without further OPEC action, inventories will remain above the five year range for now.

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Outlook for the global economy and oil demand.pdf 198.63 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Energy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy

Andrew Sentance, Bank of England. Provides an analysis of recovery in terms of global economic growth following the recent financial crisis, considering the role of a new global economy, energy prices and global environmental challenges within this. Key challenges for national economic policymakers are apparent, in respect to global interdependencies, global spillovers and the links between domestic and global, demand, growth and inflation. Globalisation remains important, even though it has resulted in volatility and made national economic management difficult, something national policies need to reflect. In addition, more effective international policy coordination is needed and this should include energy and the environment.

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Energy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy.pdf 249.66 KBEnergy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy Speech.pdf 125.11 KB
21st
Sep
2009

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