Downloads / Energy demand

Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2008

 Peter Parsons, National Grid Considers the outlook for gas and electricity, and the lessons that have been learnt from the previous winter. This is covered in respect to: Met Office weather forecast and winter temperatures; gas (demand, supply and cold weather analysis); and electricity (assumptions and winter analysis). It is suggested that the basis for gas and electricity demand will be similar to the previous winter. For gas: there is a high dependency on weather; demand uncertainties will continue, due to the impact of gas prices, efficiency measures, LCPD, availability of generating plant; that for supply there is uncertainty for all imports as a result of Norway and its continental priorities and LNG because of global market competition and commissioning of new plant; finally it is recognised that severe, or a prolonged period of, cold weather could necessitate a demand response. For electricity, power generation will be subject to plant availability and the impact of LCPD, although there is an assumption that coal will be used for base load unless prices lead to fuel switching. Also it is anticipated that Read more…

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Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2008.pdf 328.91 KB
8th
Oct
2008

Personal Carbon Trading

Stephen Elderkin, DEFRA The role of personal carbon trading (PCT) is discussed in relation to emissions from leisure, aviation, personal car use, electricity, and domestic primary fuel. The case for PCT links to the relationships between emissions and energy demand, with demand being a function of the energy used across a range of energy services. Despite energy efficiency policy delivering savings, energy service demand is growing by around 0.5% per annum and PCT is seen as a possible route to help reduce this. The types of PCT vary, but generally: they require individuals to surrender allowances when purchasing energy; the total allowances are allocated free on a per capita basis; and they are tradable between individuals. It is suggested that the visibility and price signal provided by PCT would begin to influence behaviour, but in terms of cost-effectiveness, linking to marginal abatement options, international credits and resource costs of additional abatement, analysis suggests that the costs of PCT could be 15 times the benefit. A number of PCT myths are also discussed.

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Personal Carbon Trading 2008.pdf 131.89 KB
23rd
Apr
2008

Oil Markets in 2008

Paul Horsnell, Barclays Capital Provides a detailed overview of oil markets in 2008, considering drivers to demand, growth and price. Annual changes to the forward curve of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) show both the rate at which oil prices have risen since 2004 and the movement in the back end of the curve (dollars per barrel). The choices made by OPEC are shown, in terms of their average output over time and this is considered against projected demand growth in 2008, estimates of supply growth from non-OPEC countries, and supply decreases (e.g. UK, Norway, Mexico). The oil market balances between OPEC and non-OPEC, in terms of supply and demand, are set for 2006 to 2008. A breakdown of the incremental oil supplies is given (OPEC, non-OPEC, Canadian Tar Sands, Coal to liquids and biofuels) contrasting US Department for Energy and Barclays Capital projections to 2030.

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Oil Markets in 2008.pdf 699.78 KB
17th
Jan
2008

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview of the WEO 2007 in respect to the IEA’s: Reference Scenario; Alternative Policy Scenario and 450 Stabilisation Case; as well as a High Growth Scenario (China/India), developed in co-operation with China’s NDRC & ERI, and India’s TERI, to provide an analysis of the impact of China and India on the global economy, energy markets and the environment. Detail on each scenario is provided, with links to China and India set out, and the following conclusions are put forward: the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size; the challenge is for all countries to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system; new policies now under consideration would make a major contribution; the next 10 years are critical (including the pace of capacity additions, the fact that technology will be “locked-in” for decades and there will be a growing tightness in oil and gas markets); the challenge is global, so solutions must also be global.

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World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights.pdf 495.55 KB
5th
Dec
2007

What’s the Value of an Energy Economist?

Peter Davies, BP plc .  12 November 2007 Provides an overview of the role of energy economics, initially considering existing oil resources and the theories on peak oil, and highlighting that oil production not only depends on the resources in place and investment, but also a range of other factors: price; technology; taxes; government policies and global levels of demand. Figures for oil prices, market forces and supply curves are provided. For demand, it is evident that the link between GDP and energy consumption remains intact, but that this varies regionally, highlighted through oil s-curves. In respect to climate change, even though the science is widely accepted, emissions show no sign of slowing and issues for dealing with it include the debate between mitigation and abatement versus adaptation, as well as the range of possible instruments that could be used to reduce emissions. Energy security is considered in terms of normal disruption versus catastrophe and through the role of insurance and stockpiles. From an energy economics perspective, it is suggested that: economic forces matter as much as physical and geological Read more…

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12th
Nov
2007

Supply-Demand Balance – Winter 2007/08

Andrew Ryan, National Grid 19 June 2007 Describes the Winter Consultation Report covering gas and electricity and their key interactions, using a set of assumptions and scenarios to highlight what could happen over the winter (based upon views from within the energy industry). For gas, consideration is given to: non-storage supplies; the capacity of import routes and storage options; gas prices; balance in terms of peak demand (per day and during a cold week and month); the demand-supply balance for a 1 in 50 winter; and what this may mean for demand turndown requirements. This is compared alongside assumptions for electricity supply and demand; highlighting both short term and long terms issues that need to be considered to balance them.

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Supply Demand Balance Winter 2007-08.pdf 523.83 KB
19th
Jun
2007

World Energy Outlook 2006

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides a detailed summary of WEO 2006. In respect to the IEA’s Reference Scenario, projections to 2030 are given for: world primary energy demand; world oil supply; inter-regional natural gas trade; increases in coal demand; energy-related CO2 emissions (by fuel and by region); cumulative investment needs and global upstream oil and gas investment; access to oil reserves; and energy poverty issues. The findings suggest that in the absence of new policies: security of oil supply is threatened (production in non-OPEC countries is set to peak and production will be increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries); gas security is also a growing concern (Europe’s production has already peaked, the US will follow, and import dependence in both regions and other key regions will grow). Also, investment over the next decade will lock in technology that will remain in use for up to 60 years. Whilst the Reference Scenario projects a vulnerable, dirty and expensive global energy system, WEO 2006 also maps out a cleaner, cleverer and more competitive energy future based on new Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2006.pdf 253.77 KB
26th
Nov
2006

Japanese Energy Policy and Asian Energy Challenges

Tatsuo Masuda, Tokyo Institute of Technology Sets out the context for the development of Japan’s energy policy from 1945 to present, covering six phases, from economic recovery and readjustment of energy policies in 1945 to the start of the globalization of energy market and the commitment to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The three key pillars of Japans energy policy are: assurance of stable supply; usage of market mechanisms; and harmony with the environment. This is discussed in the wider context of energy within Asia, drawing on data for total energy demand, demand by fuel, prices, emissions and population growth. Key challenges for Asia include: energy vulnerability; energy poverty and the environment; energy strength and energy needs.

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Japanese Energy Policy and Asian Energy Challenges.pdf 986.99 KB
6th
Mar
2006

Oil Markets into 2006

Peter Davies, BP Sets out the context for oil and energy today in respect to: oil and gas prices; shares of world primary energy consumption; and drivers for high oil prices (OPEC behaviour post 1999, strong demand growth in 2004, low spare capacity, geopolitics and energy as a financial commodity). The reasons why prices rose, even though market fundamentals weakened are examined and the prospects for 2006 are set out, in relation to: the call on OPEC being less than current OPEC production levels; and the risks relating to economic growth, supply delays and outages, and geopolitical uncertainties. Into the medium term it is anticipated that: spare capacity will build back to historic levels through to 2010; that oil prices will remain over $40 a barrel; and that although market forces are expected to respond, it could take a long time to reassert.

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Oil Markets into 2006.pdf 644.22 KB
24th
Jan
2006

UK Gas and Electricity Supplies: A review of the winter 2003-04

John Greasley and Simon Griew, National Grid Transco Sets out the pre-winter view from Grid; in respect to gas covering: transportation requirements; gas forecasts; plant mothballing status; changes to market rules; gas/electricity interactions; CCGT interruptions; and proposals to mitigate negative impacts. Consideration is also given to electricity covering: plant margins; market signals; and the positive and negative key uncertainties going into winter including generation and interconnector availability. This is considered against winter demand based on temperature profile and average weekly ACS demand. The interactions between gas and electricity are discussed in respect to: GB gas-fired power stations; interruptible arrangements; and the potential for firm CCGTs to arbitrage. What happened to gas is also considered, covering Beach and Interconnector deliveries and firm demand-side management. A range of issues looking forward for winter gas and electricity supply are discussed.

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UK Gas and Electricity Supplies a review of the Winter 2003.pdf 396.55 KB
30th
Apr
2004

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