Downloads / Energy demand

2010 Winter Outlook and a future view

Peter Parsons, National Grid The winter outlook for 2010/11 is presented for gas and electricity, in respect to weather forecasts, gas demand and supply, electricity demand and supply, whilst also considering supply issues and security of supply. An overview of the mechanisms for meeting the UK environmental targets and Grid’s future scenarios is also provided. In respect to gas, it is highlighted that: the peak day demand forecast is higher than last year; forecast non storage supplies are higher than last year with potential upsides in LNG; storage deliverability is reduced due to less LNG and a review of the actual deliverability from all storage sites; forecast spreads between gas or coal for base load is very small. For electricity, the average Cold Spell Demand forecast is the same as last year and the notified and assumed generation availability is also similar, although there is a large potential upside in new CCGT commissioning during the winter. Based on this and even with uncertainties, the forecast indicates the winter should be manageable, subject to events. In terms of supply issues key Read more…

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2010 Winter Outlook and a future view.pdf 1.44 MB
8th
Oct
2010

World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen IEA

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency An overview of the 2010 WEO Reference Scenario to 2030 is provided, discussing: changes in primary energy demand; upstream oil and gas capital expenditures; oil production, issues and prices; and natural gas supply, transportation, prices and market trends. The 450 Scenario is also described in respect to how demand by fuel type needs to change and the abatement of CO2 emissions; along with some key facts relating to the EU, China and the Copenhagen Accord. Some key findings include: the financial crisis has halted the rise in global energy use, but its long-term upward path will resume, based on current policies; oil investment has fallen sharply, posing questions on medium term supply; a sizable glut of natural gas is looming; a 450 path will require massive investments but would bring substantial benefits; natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future; and the Copenhagen Accord takes significant steps forward on international climate policy but is not sufficient to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees.

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World Energy Outlook Post Copenhagen.pdf 2.79 MB
18th
Mar
2010

The continuing tug-of -war between emerging market and developed market commodity demand

Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs International There has been a commodity imbalance with oil, which has historically seen global output lower than global production capacity. However, this is starting to change due to a range of interrelated issues, such as commodities, prices, resource realignments between Emerging Markets and Developed Markets (EM, DM); as well as increasing macroeconomic correlations. These changing relationships are explored in relation to what is happening within oil markets and oil pricing, considering the changing relationships between DM and EM. It is suggested that as DM recovers following the financial crisis, it will push the oil market back towards its effective production capacity by 2011. In the long term, given that the commodity crisis is a supply problem, more than a demand problem, demand in the DM will have to contract going forward to make room for EM demand increases (due to supply constraints).

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The continuing tug of war between emerging market and developed market commodity demand.pdf 340.09 KB
7th
Jan
2010

Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2009

Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides an overview of what happened in the previous winter, before considering the outlook for 2009/10. During the previous winter, there were periods of cold weather lasting around two weeks, but overall the winter was average; although one impact of the January cold snap was that it drove UK gas demand to near record levels. There were also: widespread gas supply disruptions across Europe in January as a consequence of Russia/Ukraine disputes; unprecedented IUK winter export flows; and higher demands met through significant flows from UK storage facilities at an early stage of the winter period, leading to concerns over the UK’s resilience to a late winter supply shock or prolonged period of cold weather. However, the impact of the economic recession also lowered overall demand. Looking forward to the 2009/10 winter, it is anticipated that this will be milder than the previous year, with a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter. Forecast gas demand (weather corrected) is 2.5% lower, on top of 6% reduction last winter, whilst forecast non storage supply is similar Read more…

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Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2009.pdf 1.19 MB
8th
Oct
2009

Building a Low Carbon Economy

David Kennedy, The Committee on Climate Change Provides a recap of the UK’s Intended and Interim carbon budgets to 2020 and the opportunities for emission reductions by sector covering: power; residential buildings; non-residential buildings and industry; transport; and agriculture. The macroeconomic impacts of the carbon budgets and the impacts of the recession are set out in respect to GDP against cost, emissions, carbon price and financing. The strategy for meeting the carbon budgets includes a requirement to strengthen key policies in respect to: residential buildings by overcoming known barriers (e.g. lack of information, hassle, procrastination and engagement); power markets by addressing the risks for private and social players under the current market arrangements; electric cars through the provision of interim price support for charging, information, and addressing planning barriers.

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Building a Low Carbon Economy 2009.pdf 448.3 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Regional Renewable Energy Policy in China 2009

Amber Sharick, Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research The development for renewables within China is discussed in context to its growing population, growing per capita income, improving energy efficiency and the increasing demand for energy across all sectors. The details of the China Climate Program are highlighted, which includes renewable energy (RE) targets and incentives (15% of primary energy consumption and 20% of electricity by 2020). In terms of other renewable policy developments, China has: a renewable energy law; national RE targets; a requirement for national resource surveys; and mid- and long- term Provincial targets (a similar situation to national RE targets in the EU). A renewable energy development plan to 2020 includes an aim to install 30GW of onshore grid connected wind across its provinces and 1GW of offshore wind capacity; with a suggestion that 200 million megawatt hours of electricity from non-hydropower renewable energy projects will be needed by 2020.

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Regional renewable Energy Policy in China 2009.pdf 672.74 KB
11th
Feb
2009

China Moving towards low carbon growth 2009

Jim Watson, Sussex Energy Group China’s recent energy trends are described in terms of primary energy demand, energy intensity and power generation capacity, alongside environmental implications such as acid rain, total and per capita carbon emissions and attitudes to these. It is suggested that: per capita carbon emissions are low, but are rising from the production of goods for western consumers; there is a genuine desire to develop sustainably, but this is hindered by the financial crisis; and that significant progress in low carbon technologies is occurring, alongside improvements within energy efficiency, economic restructuring and innovation.

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China Moving towards low carbon growth 2009.pdf 295.28 KB
11th
Feb
2009

Piloting Low Carbon Economic Zones in China 2009

Antony Froggatt, Chatham House An overview of Low Carbon Zones (LCZ) is provided, setting out what they are, what they can include and the opportunities and incentives they can offer. These are considered in terms of the role LCZs could play within China, and the role that LCZs could play in driving a low carbon economy-wide transition. LCZs provide a testing ground for regulatory, economic, trade and investment policies, promoting the necessary scale of economic transformation for a low-carbon future. Examples of what they can include are set out, such as: demonstration and manufacturing of energy efficient and low carbon goods and services; low or zero carbon towns and infrastructure; and alternative transport modes. Within China they are seen as potentially playing an important role in their next industrial revolution and are being driven by strong local Chinese leadership and supported by central Government. The strategic commitment by China to develop practical decarbonisation paths is supported by strategic cooperation from the EU. The current status of LCZs within China are discussed and the case for, and steps towards developing one Read more…

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Piloting Low Carbon Economic Zones in China 2009.pdf 496.54 KB
11th
Feb
2009

World Energy Outlook 2008

Dr Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency The context for the 2008 WEO includes: soaring energy prices to mid-2008, followed by a collapse; the financial crisis and economic slowdown; the possibility that economic worries will divert attention from strategic energy-security and environmental challenges; a possible supply-crunch once the economy recovers; and questions over what will come out of the COP-15 in Copenhagen. Each of these issues is discussed in respect to possible impacts for global energy demand and supply, set out through the IEA’s Reference Scenario and the climate policy scenarios (550 and 450). Details are provided on world primary energy demand, including the role of coal, oil, gas and electricity, and the prospects for oil and gas supplies. The summary suggests that: current energy trends are unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically; oil will remain the leading energy source but the era of cheap oil is over and the oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change; energy and geopolitics will be increasingly interconnected; the world’s energy system need to be decarbonised; and the financial crisis can plant the seeds for Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2008.pdf 1.14 MB
9th
Feb
2009

Delivering Sustainability – The need for energy policy to engage more people than the ‘usual suspects’ – the supply-side

Catherine Mitchell, University of Exeter Sets out the nature of the current energy system in terms of incumbent energy companies and how Government policies support them, before asking what can be done about this. The implication of meeting the 2050 carbon targets is that the energy system (electricity, heat and transport) will need to be almost completely different from that in place today, requiring significant innovation and change. It is apparent that the Big Six dominate electricity supply and generation and large scale gas, at the expense of other key sectors (transport, heat, skills) and what may be needed are more inclusive and open policies and a strategic plan with political intervention and funds.

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Delivering Sustainability the need for energy policy to engage more people than the usual suspects the supply side.pdf 929.65 KB
17th
Nov
2008

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