Downloads / Gas

The role of regulation in supporting transformative change in the energy market

Mr Martin  Crouch, Ofgem, United Kingdom Dr Jeffrey Hardy, Ofgem, United Kingdom   The energy system is undergoing a radical transformation from one that is largely centralised and carbon-intense to one that is carbon constrained, smart, (to some extent) decentralised and flexible.   Our role as the energy system regulator is to ensure existing and future consumers’ interests are protected. But who are these future consumers and what is the energy system we are protecting their interests in?   These questions are material today and are in part the driving force for several Ofgem projects, including our work on flexibility, future of retail regulation, quicker, more efficient connections and code governance reform.   There are also potentially disruptive technologies and business models that could disrupt the market and set the energy system on a new paradigm. The recent trend on solar PV deployment is an example of this. These innovations could shape the future of the energy system. We recognised this in our Innovation Plan that we published in March 2016. It was also a key finding from our work on non-traditional Read more…

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Crouch_The_Role_of_Regulation_in_Supporting_Innovation1.pdf 1.12 MBCrouch_The_Role_of_Regulation_in_Supporting_Innovation.pdf 241.6 KB
21st
Sep
2016

Studying Boom-Bust Cycles in Natural Gas Production Assets Investments

Mr Joël  Enderlin, Center of Expertise in Economic  and Modelling Studies, ENGIE Strategy Division, France During the past decade, the global gas market has witnessed a series of critical upheavals: increasing market volatility, greater geopolitical risks, ever-growing hazardous market cycles. In this disrupted environment, the use of models capable of representing the true dynamic of gas market fundamentals has become decisive for the gas industry to generate the most reliable long-term forecasts. However, conventional gas models usually neglect the effects of dynamic path-dependence and independent agent behaviors by assuming that the market stands in a permanent state of equilibrium.   The new model therefore aims at exploiting these two disregarded concepts to represent the gas market as an evolving and complex system. To this end, the new approach consists in building the dynamic path resulting from the progressive realisation of the gas market with an advanced rolling optimisation model.   In accordance with the principle of causality, the non-coordinated investment decisions in natural gas production assets made by independent actors at a given date have a direct and structural impact on Read more…

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Presentation_Enderlin.pdf 1.03 MBEnderlin-STUDYING-BOOM-BUST-CYCLES-IN-NATURAL-GAS-PRODUCTION-ASSETS-INVESTMENTS.pdf 851.53 KB
21st
Sep
2016

How Can the North Sea Oil and Gas Industry be Revived?

Prof Alex  Kemp, Univerity of Aberdeen, United Kingdom Ms Linda Stephen, Univerity of Aberdeen, United Kingdom The collapse in oil prices has resulted in a dramatic reduction in investment activity in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) with both new field developments and exploration falling substantially.  Many currently producing fields are now operating at a loss.  Fears have been expressed regarding the sector’s longer term viability.  This paper seeks to illuminate the present position and prospects for the industry in the light of recent world energy market developments.  The UKCS is a mature petroleum province personified by declining geological prospectivity, the presence of many old fields, and the prevalence of high unit costs.  Over the period 2009 – 2014 the investment boom relating to a few large projects concealed the underlying problems.  The extreme cost inflation experienced in this period has exacerbated the current difficulties.  The study employs financial simulation modelling, including use of the Monte Carlo technique to assess exploration risks, to estimate the prospective returns at the field development and exploration stages under a variety of oil prices, cost, and tax Read more…

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Alex_Kemp_presentation_how_can_north_sea_oil_and_gas.pdf 1.2 MBKemp_How-can-North-Sea-Oil-and-Gas-Industry-be-Revitalised.pdf 765.33 KB
21st
Sep
2016

Drivers and Hurdles for Gas Market Integration in Europe: Evidence from the Belgium-Luxembourg Pilot Market Merger Project

Mr Chris  Cuijpers, Commission for Electricity and Gas Regulation (CREG), Belgium Mr Andreas Tirez, Commission for Electricity and Gas Regulation (CREG), Belgium This paper examines the various reasons for joining gas markets in Europe as well as the practical difficulties and concerns. It is true that an increasing number of transmission system operators (TSOs) are looking for cross-border opportunities to coordinate and eventually join activities.  The impulse for this trend is clearly given by the implementation of the European Third Energy Package and the European Gas Target Model, both aiming at an effective European Energy Union. However, this political and regulatory framework leave open whether this should be through coupling or through merging of markets. Coupling of gas markets aims to eliminate restrictions on cross-border trade in gas and enhance efficient price mechanisms. The European Third Energy Package brings changes to market design, for example the establishment of entry-exit regimes across Europe and provides European network codes to further harmonise capacity allocation, balancing and trading arrangements. Merging of gas markets, however, goes a step further and aims at removing borders in order Read more…

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Cuijpers-Drivers-and-Hurdles-for-Gas-Market1.pdf 1.08 MBCuijpers-rev-Drivers-and-Hurdles-for-Gas-Market-presentation.pdf 1.56 MB
21st
Sep
2016

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