Downloads / Finance and investment

Financial Markets and the S-Curve-Electric Vehicles

EV uptake in the UK is problematic and EV numbers are still tiny, leading many to be sceptical.  However, EV globally are following well-established S curves of demand growth driven by technology, necessity and policy.  Financial markets tend to price in S curves early, so we should expect continued enthusiasm, capital availability and innovation.   Kingsmill Bond is the New Energy Strategist for Carbon Tracker, and part of the investor outreach team. His role is to communicate to investors the dramatic implications of the energy transition.  He believes that this revolution is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. Kingsmill has worked as a sell-side City equity analyst and strategist for over 20 years, including for Deutsche Bank, Troika Dialog and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow.  He has written strategy on emerging markets and global themes, including the wider significance of the shale revolution.  He worked for many years in Russia, which is the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, and deeply impacted by the transition. Kingsmill has an MA in history Read more…

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190918_Financial-Markets-and-the-S-Curve-of-EV-Demand-Carbon-Tracker.pdf 985.58 KB
19th
Sep
2018

Leveraging Private Household investment in energy efficient retrofit: a systematic evidence review of the policy options

Niall Kerr, University of Edinburgh Home energy retrofit is distinctive as a low carbon policy option due to its requirement for collaboration between private households and public policy in the deeply personal environment of home. While there is an irrefutable case for public investment in retrofit, there is also a strong private case and as a result there is often a joint contribution to the cost of retrofit. This paper presents a systematic evidence review of policy effectiveness with respect to private household investment in retrofit. The review considered how policy can be used to efficiently leverage private household investment in energy efficient retrofit across three key areas: demand-side, supply-side and the overall ‘policy mix’. On the demand-side, while private funding levels range from well below 100% of public funding to several multiples of available public funds, levels of policy additionality, positive spill-over and market effects complicate leverage calculations. While subsidised loans offer the greatest example of private to public leverage they are much less widely implemented and are perceived to be less attractive to households than one-off payment grants Read more…

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Kerr-Leveraging-private-household-investment-in-energy-efficient-retrofit.pptx 2.34 MBKerr-Leveraging-private-household-investment-in-energy-efficient-retrofit.pdf 926.53 KB
18th
Sep
2018

Modelling Take-Up of Residential Solar PV in the UK

Sophie Heald, Cambridge Econometrics In February 2016, the solar PV tariff rate in the UK was reduced from 12.47 p/kWh to 4.39 p/kWh. Since that date, growth in small-scale residential solar PV in the UK has slowed dramatically (see Figure 1). In a recent study for the European Commission[1], we develop a new methodology to model prosumers’ investment decisions. We developed baseline projections and a series of scenarios to assess how take-up of residential Solar PV in the UK (and the wider EU) may be affected by future changes in policy and technology. Our method takes account of the fact that households weigh up a multitude of both financial and non-financial factors when deciding whether to invest in solar PV. In relation to these financial and non-financial drivers of investment, there is considerable heterogeneity among households. We derive distributions for the cost-effectiveness and overall attractiveness of investment among households in the UK and use this to develop projections of take-up of solar PV. For each year up to 2030, under specific assumptions about CAPEX and OPEX costs, policy support, future Read more…

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Heald-Modelling-take-up-of-residential-solar-PV-in-th-UK.pptx 1.63 MBHeald-Modelling-take-up-of-residential-solar-PV-in-th-UK.pdf 548.94 KB
18th
Sep
2018

Towards a new energy sector: The role of financial innovation

Barbara Buchner Dr. Barbara Buchner is Executive Director of the widely renowned Climate Finance program at Climate Policy Initiative and is based out of San Francisco. Named one of the 20 most influential women in climate change, Barbara advises leaders on climate, energy, and land use investments around the world. Barbara is the lead author on CPI’s Global Landscape of Climate Finance, which has set the benchmark for climate finance tracking, and Climate Finance in 2013-14 and the USD 100 billion goal – a joint report with the OECD that played a seminal role in the lead up to the Paris Agreement. She directs the CPI’s work as Secretariat of the Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance (the Lab). The Lab’s public-private approach solicits, shapes, and tests cutting edge climate finance instruments that resolve financing barriers hindering alternative energy, adaptation, and land use projects. The Lab has helped raise over 500 million USD for its initiatives, and it was endorsed by the G7 in its first year of operation. The success of the Lab has also helped to shape the Read more…

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Towards-a-new-energy-sector-Barbara-Buchner.pdf 1.7 MB
22nd
Sep
2016

Studying Boom-Bust Cycles in Natural Gas Production Assets Investments

Mr Joël  Enderlin, Center of Expertise in Economic  and Modelling Studies, ENGIE Strategy Division, France During the past decade, the global gas market has witnessed a series of critical upheavals: increasing market volatility, greater geopolitical risks, ever-growing hazardous market cycles. In this disrupted environment, the use of models capable of representing the true dynamic of gas market fundamentals has become decisive for the gas industry to generate the most reliable long-term forecasts. However, conventional gas models usually neglect the effects of dynamic path-dependence and independent agent behaviors by assuming that the market stands in a permanent state of equilibrium.   The new model therefore aims at exploiting these two disregarded concepts to represent the gas market as an evolving and complex system. To this end, the new approach consists in building the dynamic path resulting from the progressive realisation of the gas market with an advanced rolling optimisation model.   In accordance with the principle of causality, the non-coordinated investment decisions in natural gas production assets made by independent actors at a given date have a direct and structural impact on Read more…

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Presentation_Enderlin.pdf 1.03 MBEnderlin-STUDYING-BOOM-BUST-CYCLES-IN-NATURAL-GAS-PRODUCTION-ASSETS-INVESTMENTS.pdf 851.53 KB
21st
Sep
2016

A meta-analysis of the capability and performance of the energy innovation system in 40 countries

Dr Fionn  Rogan, University College Cork, Ireland Dr Paul Bolger, University College Cork,Ireland Prof Brian ó Gallachóir, University College Cork, Ireland This analysis undertakes a meta-analysis of innovation capability in a range of 40 countries. In order to limit global warming to below 2 degrees (and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees, as per the recent Paris Climate Agreement), it is necessary to decarbonise the energy system by at least 80% by 2050 (compared to 1990. This will necessitate extensive innovation, and given the historical low rate of innovation in the energy sector, this emphasizes the severity of the innovation challenge for the energy system. This analysis seeks to answer the following research questions: Are countries that are ranked the highest for innovation, competiveness, and entrepreneurship metrics also ranked the highest on metrics for clean-tech, energy sustainability, and the green economy?   Are competencies in general innovation and competiveness part of the enabling conditions for innovative clean-tech, energy sustainability, and the green economy?   Is there a positive relationship between countries that manage their environment and countries that are innovative and competitive? Read more…

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Rogan-Meta-Analysis-of-Energy-Innovation-System.pdf 1.01 MBRogan-Meta-analysis-of-Energy-Innovation-System.pdf 193.26 KB
21st
Sep
2016

Energy Infrastructure Financing and Project Finance (Nigerian Energy Sector as a Case Study)

Mr Nasir  Kolade, University of The West of Scotland This paper focuses on the use of project finance as an alternative source of financing energy projects in order to contribute solutions to the challenges of energy infrastructural deficits that have effects on the economic growth and development in Nigeria. Energy infrastructure is one of the required conditions for sustainable growth and development. One of the problems that contribute to the energy deficit in Nigeria is finance. Building a large energy infrastructure requires significant finance, and to achieve substantial and sustainable energy access, long-term financial development strategies are pertinent. This is where project finance comes in; it provides resources to finance large energy projects with little or no recourse to sponsors’ collateral assets. Project finance is a mix of both local and foreign direct investment, and most foreign inflow of cash needs a well-developed market to act as an intermediary, however, project finance overcomes the challenges of not having a deep financial market. Project finance has a unique structure in its contractual framework including guarantees from multilateral/bilateral institutions and the host government, Read more…

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NASIR-KOLADE-POWERPOINT-PRESENTATION-NK.pdf 317.12 KB
21st
Sep
2016

A Fit-For-Purpose energy policy for the European Union

Ms Samuela  Bassi, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom Prof Samuel Fankhauser, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom Dr  Maria Carvalho, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom •           Overview  and relevance Following the Paris Agreement, the focus of EU decision makers has turned again towards domestic policy. Good European and national policies will be essential to achieve the target outlined in the EU’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) in the most cost effective way. It is therefore particularly crucial to understand what works in climate policy, and whether the current EU policy architecture is able to facilitate the technology development required to meet future carbon reduction targets.   This paper aims to identify the effectiveness of European and domestic policies. It investigates their effectiveness, credibility and unintended consequences. In particular, it assesses whether the current policy framework is fit for purpose to accommodate the required technological and economic transformation Read more…

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Carvalho_A_Fit-for-Purpose_Energy_Policy_for_the_European_Union1.pdf 1.02 MBCarvalho_A_Fit-for-Purpose_Energy_Policy_for_the_European_Union.pdf 319.17 KB
21st
Sep
2016

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