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Energy Barometer 2016

Deane Somerville, Knowledge Team Manager, Energy Institute The 2016 Energy Barometer Report captures insights from UK energy professionals and enables them to form the energy debate, policymakers, influencers, the industry and the public. Deane Somerville has worked in the Knowledge Team at the Energy Institute for the past three years, and has been involved in the development and production of the Energy Barometer as well as other Knowledge Service products. Prior to joining the EI, he worked in environmental consulting, focusing on contaminated site remediation. Academically, his background is in Geology as well as Energy and Environmental Technology. Deane is a Graduate member of the Energy Institute.  

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Energy_Barometer_2016-Somerville.pdf 1.35 MB
21st
Sep
2016

Alternative Liquid Fuels: Governance, Security and Transitions in the Inter-War Period

Professor Peter J G Pearson, Cardiff University Victoria Johnson, Cardiff University Fionnguala Sherry-Brennan, Cardiff University   Overview: This research is part of the EPSRC-funded Realising Transitions Pathways project and builds on earlier historical studies (Arapostathis et al., 2013; Carlsson-Hyslop and Pearson, 2013; Pearson and Foxon, 2012). Basing our analysis on earlier experiences of the emergence and evolution of alternative liquid fuels, we aim to provide a useful historical analogue for understanding the development, support and acceptance of technological substitutes within socio-technical transitions. Methodology: We focus on two petrol alternatives manufactured in the inter-war period (1918-1938). They were power alcohol, made by the Distillers Company Ltd. (DCL), sold as Discol between 1921 and 1973, and a petrol-from-coal made by Imperial Chemical Industries Ltd. (ICI), which was blended with petroleum derived petrol and sold between 1935 and 1958. Given recent criticisms that socio-technical transitions research often underplays or neglects issues of governance, agency and power, we play particular attention to the role of actors and governance to better understand the drivers for state support for these two fuels. We do this by Read more…

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Pearson-Alternative-Liquid-Fuels-BIEE.pdf 819.78 KB
18th
Sep
2014

The implementation of biofuels in Oil Firms; Unlocking a path dependency and steering towards a more sustainable trajectory?

Mr Nelson Mojarro Gonzalez, SPRU, University of Sussex Biofuels can be used either as an additive or as a fuel substitute having different implications for oil firms. This paper focuses on the use of ethanol by oil firms and examines how and why ethanol has been employed by oil companies, and how this might lead to a (technological) shift in a historically path dependent technological system towards a potentially more sustainable trajectory. The article analyzes the case of the major Brazilian oil company, Petrobras and argues that after decades of complying the highest ethanol blending mandate in the world, the Brazilian oil firm, has until recently has until recently enter biofuel upstream activities, potentially unlocking its oil-only based path dependency. Oil firms are almost the sole providers of motor fuels and “the infrastructure necessary to provide fuels can be identified as a path dependent large technological system. This system has since the early 20th century employed the same raw material (crude oil) to produce its main process refining output, motor gasoline. The vast majority of oil firms in this system Read more…

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Unlocking-a-path-dependency-The-case-of-Brazilian-ethanol-implementation-in-Petrobras.pdf 1.21 MB
20th
Sep
2012

Spatial Panel Data Models and Fuel Demand in Brazil

Dr Gervasio Santos, Federal University of Bahia The objective of this paper is to estimate the price and income elasticity for gasoline and ethanol in the fuel market for light vehicles in Brazil using spatial panel data models. The presence of two main fuels – gasoline and ethanol – in this market makes it considerably competitive. In addition, vehicular natural gas (VNG) also has a marginal presence in the market. Besides diversification, there are three main spatial features of fuel supply that might influence heterogeneity in the behavior of regional consumers. First, sugar-cane ethanol production is concentrated in some states. Second, besides marginal imports of gasoline, its production also is concentrated in some states. And third, along with the small share of VNG, production and logistical problems lead to a concentration of supply in a few states and cities. As a consequence, consumer behavior is heterogeneous and directly and indirectly influenced by different supply gaps and transportation and distribution costs. For this reason, there may be spatial autocorrelation patterns in fuel demand. Thus, spatial panel data models are used to Read more…

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Spatial-Panel-Data-Models-and-Fuel-Demand-in-Brazil.pdf 515.64 KBSANTOS-Spatial_Panel_Data_Model_and_Fuel_Demand_in_Brazil-6mw.pdf 663.33 KB
20th
Sep
2012

Exploring policies for the transition towards electric vehicles

In order to meet the target of 450 ppm CO2-equivalent by 2050, a minimum of 50% energy-related GHG emission reduction needs to be achieved globally. The transport of passengers and goods, mainly dominated by road vehicles, is responsible for 26% of global energy-related GHG emissions (IEA, 2010). A reduction of its emissions by 95% will be necessary to compensate for other sectors where it is harder to reduce emissions, such as aviation and heavy industry (DECC, 2010).  One way, is the electri?cation of the transport sector. However, the electri?cation the current transport system relies on a range of vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), battery electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEV), which depend on the availability of manufacturing capabilities and refuelling/recharging infrastructures.   The challenge is to initiate and drive forward major structural changes to the current road passenger transport system, the related industries, as well as to the society: its needs, expectations and behaviours. The whole transition process towards electric mobility will be a result of interactions between di?erent groups of customers, industries and policy makers, Read more…

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MAZUR_Christoph_Exploring_policies_for_the_transition_towards_electric_vehicles.pdf 548.1 KB
19th
Sep
2012

Passenger Road Transport in the Long Run

Katharina Gruenberg, Shell Research Ltd In a rapidly changing world the demand for energy seems ever increasing. Good insight into future energy demand levels of now developing countries is usually obtained from the countries that have already climbed up the so-called energy ladder based on economic drivers. Commonly acknowledged, the energy economies of the countries will vary further by geographic and demographic variables: indisputably, India, being warmer and more dispersed, will exhibit a different domestic heating and transport patterns of energy consumption than the ‘average OECD country’. The question is: How different? What will the patterns of the developing countries look like in the future and what is the impact at the world level? And what is the time frame we are talking about? Shell is known for its interest in long-term future energy consumption, through work such as “Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050” published in 2008. This presentation will show the results of further incorporating important country-specific characteristics into our long-term outlooks for energy.

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Passenger Road Transport in the Long Run - Presentation.pdf 136.46 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

How environmentally sustainable are current biofuels?

Mr Jeremie Mercier, Imperial College  Today’s liquid transport biofuels are mostly bioethanol and biodiesel, commonly used in low blends with their fossil fuel equivalents gasoline and diesel. Current feedstocks for bioethanol include maize (US), sugar cane (Brazil), wheat and sugar beet (Europe). The major biodiesel feedstocks are soybeans (Argentina, Brazil and the US), oil palm (South-East Asia), sunflower and oilseed rape (Europe). Biofuels are widely promoted for their presumed role in tackling climate change, by virtue of their CO2 emissions reduction potential compared to their fossil fuels equivalents. Thanks to an increased public awareness of climate change and pollution in general, many consumers are ready to buy biofuels, or cars that can run on higher biofuel blends, if it is proven that these biofuels truly help the environment. But depending on practices and feedstocks, biofuels can have significant impacts on the environment at every step of their life-cycle: farming, industrial processing, distribution, combustion… In an effort to raise consumer awareness, more information and transparency is needed, allowing consumers to assess the environmental impact of biofuel use compared to fossil fuels. Read more…

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24th
Sep
2008

Transport: Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030

Joyce Dargay, Leeds University The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by explicitly modelling the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. The model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and cross-section data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the world’s population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to over 2 billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the world’s vehicles will be owned by non-OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, China’s vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold, to 390 million in 2030. The implications of this extreme pace of vehicle ownership expansion for oil demand is also illustrated in the paper.  

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Vehicle_Ownership_and_Income_Growth_Worldwide_from_1960-2030_2006_pap.pdf 107.79 KBVehicle_ownership_and_income_growth_worldwide_1960-2030_2006_pres.pdf 133.8 KB
20th
Sep
2006

Transport: Contracting UK carbon emissions: implications for UK aviation

Alice Bows, University of Manchester Stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at or below 550ppmv is widely believed to be necessary to avoid ‘dangerous climate change’. Achieving such levels demands industrialised nations make significant emissions cuts, whilst emerging economies adopt low-carbon pathways. This paper demonstrates the severe consequences for the UK in meeting its obligations to reduce carbon emissions under the apportionment rules informing both RCEP’s 22nd report, Energy the Changing Climate, and the 2003 Energy White, if the UK Government continues to permit the current high levels of growth within its aviation sector. The paper reveals the enormous disparity between the UK’s position on carbon reduction and the Government’s reluctance to recognise and adequately respond to the rapidly escalating emissions from aviation. A comparison of forecasts and scenarios reflecting growing aviation emissions with a contracting UK emissions profile clearly illustrates this point. Results show that at an annual growth rate of only half of that experienced by UK aviation emissions in 2004, this sector will account for over 90% of permissible emissions in 2050 under the 550ppmv level, and consume Read more…

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CONTRACTING_UK_CARBON_EMISSIONS_2006_pap.pdf 156.03 KBContracting_UK_Carbon_emissions_implications_for_aviation_2006_pres.pdf 790 KB
20th
Sep
2006

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