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Energy Barometer 2016

Deane Somerville, Knowledge Team Manager, Energy Institute The 2016 Energy Barometer Report captures insights from UK energy professionals and enables them to form the energy debate, policymakers, influencers, the industry and the public. Deane Somerville has worked in the Knowledge Team at the Energy Institute for the past three years, and has been involved in the development and production of the Energy Barometer as well as other Knowledge Service products. Prior to joining the EI, he worked in environmental consulting, focusing on contaminated site remediation. Academically, his background is in Geology as well as Energy and Environmental Technology. Deane is a Graduate member of the Energy Institute.  

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Energy_Barometer_2016-Somerville.pdf 1.35 MB
21st
Sep
2016

North Sea Oil and Gas at a Crossroads: How Can Policy Help?

Professor Alex Kemp and Linda Stephen University of Aberdeen   Overview of Issue   Activity in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) is currently at a crossroads.  While field investment was at a record high of £14.4 billion in 2013 and could be as much as £13 billion in 2014 this reflects the coincident development of a few very large and very expensive fields.  It is expected to fall dramatically thereafter.  Production has been declining briskly since its peak in 2000, and fell by 38% in the period 2010-2013.  Production efficiency (the ratio of actual production to the maximum efficient rate) has fallen from 80% in 2004 to 60% in 2012.  Exploration drilling has been at very low levels since 2011 and the resources discoveries correspondingly small.  Development, operating and exploration costs (per barrel) have suffered from substantial inflation in recent years.  At least two very large new field developments have been put on hold despite the availability of large tax allowances.  At least two companies have signalled their intention to exit the whole province.  Despite the very large recent investment Read more…

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Kemp-North-sea-oil-and-gas-at-a-crossroads.pdf 1.34 MB
18th
Sep
2014

An Investigation into the Gas Trades across the Interconnector Pipeline between the UK and Belgium: Do Gas Flows Follow Price Spreads?

Mr Chris Cuijpers, CREG Andreas Tirez, CREG   This paper examines the gas flow efficiency in the only bi-directional gas pipeline between the UK and continental Europe. The physical bi-directionality of the cross-channel Interconnector was rapidly valued by the market for short term trading rather than for cross-border bulk gas transportation. This trading role is further intensified as gas import dependency in the UK is growing and gas demand volatility is increasing due to wind and solar generation. The pipeline is nowadays a vital connection for cross-border gas competition and gas price convergence at the adjacent trading hubs. Cross-border trades are considered to be economically efficient if gas flows from the low priced to the high priced market until transaction costs equal the remaining price spread. If these flow patterns according to price signals are not the case, there may be barriers to trade which are typically addressed by regulators for the sake of efficient market-functioning and security of supply.   Interconnector (UK) Limited (IUK) operates the 235 km cross-channel pipeline running from Bacton in the UK to Zeebrugge in Read more…

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CUIJPERS-An-Investigation-into-Gas-Trades.pdf 681.03 KB
18th
Sep
2014

Crude oil futures markets: Does NYMEX trade and the decoupling of WTI and Brent affect ICE trade?

Professor Ronald Ripple, Curtin University This paper examines the relations between the futures trading activities on the NYMEX and the ICE exchanges, placed in the context of the decoupling of WTI and Brent. The paper analyses the evolution of crude oil hedgers’ activities in the NYMEX-traded derivatives and the relations with futures prices and speculators’ activities. Derivatives traders are classified according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) categories. The paper analyses the activities of NYMEX crude oil traders according to their open interest positions as reported in both the Legacy Commitment of Trader (LCOT) reports and the new Disaggregated COT (DCOT); the inaugural DCOT report was published on September 4, 2009. The LCOT classifies large traders as commercial, non-commercial, and non-reporting. Historically, commercial traders have been evaluated as representing hedging interests, while non-commercial traders, and to a lesser extent the non-reporting traders, are typically viewed as representing speculators. The DCOT aims to increase transparency particularly with respect to the non-commercial classification of large reporting traders. The trader categories for the DCOT are: (1) Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, (2) Swaps Dealers, (3) Managed Money, Read more…

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Crude-oil-futures-markets-Does-NYMEX-trade-and-the-de-linking-of-WTI-and-Brent-affect-ICE-trade.pdf 887.5 KBRipple-Crude-oil-futures-markets.pdf 584.5 KB
19th
Sep
2012

Third Party Access to Infrastructure and the Future Recovery of Oil and Gas Reserves in the UKCS

Professor Alexander Kemp, University of Aberdeen The importance of ensuring effective mechanisms to allow third-party access to infrastructure in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) has been understood since the early years of North Sea oil and gas exploitation, both in helping reduce the overall development costs of new fields and avoiding the proliferation of pipelines.  In recent years, third-party use of the existing infrastructure has grown substantially. Because of the small size of the majority of the new fields in the UKCS, it is increasingly important in ensuring that maximum economic recovery can be attained. The UK government recognizes the potential effects of monopoly power being used by infrastructure owners and has within the 2011 Energy Act taken some new powers to intervene.  The approach taken in the UK remains based on a voluntary approach.  The Industry’s Infrastructure Code of Practice (ICoP) is meant to guide bilateral negotiations between existing infrastructure owners and potential third party users, with government intervention envisaged only when these fail. The current voluntary system is still perceived by some to have a number of Read more…

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Third-Party-Access-to-Infrastructure-and-The-Future-Recovery-of-Oil-And-Gas-Reserves-In-The-UKCS-.pdf 2.64 MBThird-Party-Access-to-Infrastructure-hubs.pdf 427.58 KB
19th
Sep
2012

The Economics of CO2 Sequestration through Enhanced Oil Recovery

Professor Charles Mason, University of Wyoming The process of injecting CO2 into mature oil fields to increase oil production, enhanced oil recovery (EOR), contributes a significant and growing portion of overall world oil production.  This is an important development for climate-change policy, because most of the injected CO2 remains underground after fields are decommissioned. Provided therefore that the CO2 comes from anthropogenic sources, EOR constitutes a form of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).  Moreover, whereas projects that inject CO2 into saline aquifers incur only costs, EOR projects generate revenues from the incremental oil that they recover. Accordingly, EOR may form a “bridge” to widespread CCS in aquifers, by helping pay for required infrastructure. In this paper, we discuss the economics of CO2 sequestration through EOR.  We first consider how climate-change policy may influence optimal management of EOR projects. Currently, these projects treat CO2 as a costly input. In the context of climate-change policy, however, operators may receive carbon credits or other types of subsidies for any CO2 they sequester.  Because these subsidies become a new source of revenues, the question Read more…

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The-Economics-of-CO2-Sequestration.pdf 3.03 MBMason-TheEconomicsOfCO2SequestrationThroughEnhancedOilRecovery.pdf 396.59 KB
19th
Sep
2012

The Effect of Royalties on oil and gas production

Dr Clinton Levitt, Copenhagen Business School I develop a structural model of exploration and extraction that can be used to estimate the effectiveness of different royalty schemes.  I focus on four targets: (1)government revenue; (2)where firms explore; (3)volume extracted from existing wells; and, (4)in-situ recovery rates (investment in enhanced recovery methods).  Using data from Alberta, Canada, I constructed an extensive geographic information system.  These data contain information on over 400 thousand individual wells.  For each well, the data include the latitude and longitude, the owner, monthly extracted volumes over the lifetime of the well, and production dates.  With these data, I can construct individual production histories of over 400 thousand wells.  In addition, data on over 40 thousand hydrocarbon pools are used to construct accurate reserve estimates for each well.  Finally, the pool data can be used to accurately estimate extraction costs at the pool level.  These data represent a significant improvement over data that have been previously used to study oil and gas investment decisions.  These novel data allow me to estimate a sophisticated structural model of firms\’ investment Read more…

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The Effect of Royalties on oil and gas production - Paper.pdf 574.15 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Exploring the Rationales for Relaxations in the UK Petroleum Fiscal Regime 1980-2000

Dr Hafez Abdo, Nottingham Trent University. The UK petroleum fiscal regime was established in 1975 and tightened up with a number of different new taxes up until 1981. The period 1983-2000 witnessed three petroleum tax relaxations. These took place in 1983, 1987-88, and 1993, and presented a clear change in the type of UK governance of its petroleum resources from a proprietorial to a non-proprietorial regime. This paper will explore and test the historical rationales for the three UK petroleum tax relaxations. The investigation of these rationales is based on three viewpoints: that of the Government, the UK oil industry, and academics. The tests of the rationales will measure the success of the Government petroleum policy which was based on using tax relaxations to stimulate oil and gas investments. This paper will be set in the context of the two broad alternatives (proprietorial and non-proprietorial) because the UK has, over time, come to use its fiscal regime more and more as a tool of intervention. This became particularly apparent from the 1980s onwards after the initial period of fiscal tightening which Read more…

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24th
Sep
2008

High Energy Prices and the World Economy

Christopher Allsopp, Oxford Energy Institute The relationship between energy prices and the world economy is examined. World growth has been strong and benign growth is forecast. However, there are risks from oil price increases and volatility as well as global account imbalances and geopolitics. Oil price impacts (so far) appear very different from past oil shocks with a muted effect on inflation. This has implications for policy responses, simulations and price forecasts. Interest rates have been going up largely due to rapid actual and anticipated world growth. Growth forecasts are raising concerns over energy security. In the short run, supply and demand elasticities are low, however in the longer run considerable adaptation is likely. Many believe in a ‘new energy paradigm’ with high and volatile prices. High oil prices encourage alternatives such as tar sands and especially cheap and abundant coal. Both raise serious environment and climate change concerns.

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HIGH-ENERGY-PRICES-AND-THE-WORLD-ECONOMY-2006.pdf 433.81 KB
20th
Sep
2006

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