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Energy Barometer 2016

Deane Somerville, Knowledge Team Manager, Energy Institute The 2016 Energy Barometer Report captures insights from UK energy professionals and enables them to form the energy debate, policymakers, influencers, the industry and the public. Deane Somerville has worked in the Knowledge Team at the Energy Institute for the past three years, and has been involved in the development and production of the Energy Barometer as well as other Knowledge Service products. Prior to joining the EI, he worked in environmental consulting, focusing on contaminated site remediation. Academically, his background is in Geology as well as Energy and Environmental Technology. Deane is a Graduate member of the Energy Institute.  

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Energy_Barometer_2016-Somerville.pdf 1.35 MB
21st
Sep
2016

Electrification of heating: the role of heat pumps

Dr Tina Fawcett, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Russell Layberry, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Nick Eyre, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford   Heating accounted for  44%  of UK national energy demand in 2011 (DECC, 2013). It is currently predominantly supplied by natural gas. However, the future of heating  is thought to be very different , with electrification expected on a grand scale. UK 2050 scenarios which meet the 80% carbon reduction target universally include an electrified heat supply. Most commonly, heat pumps are seen as the key technology, delivering 80-90% of heating.  While heat pumps can deliver low carbon energy services, given sufficient supplies of low carbon electricity, their contribution to the other energy policy goals of security of supply and affordable costs are much less certain. This paper will set out the major challenges for widespread adoption of heat pumps in the UK and worldwide, present original modelling work on the effect of heat pump adoption on electricity system peaks globally and for individual countries, discuss these findings in the context of other challenges to Read more…

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Fawcett-Layberry-Eyre-Electrification-of-Heating-v5.pdf 522.11 KB
18th
Sep
2014

The impact of future heat demand pathways on the economics of low carbon heating systems

Mr Robert Sansom, Imperial College The demand for heat will have a fundamental influence on all the associated assets required from supply to delivery through to end-user consumption.  Thus it is important to understand heat demand and how it might change in the future as it will have a direct impact on the economics of low carbon heating systems.  Heat demand forecasts are frequently presented in annualised format and although this is helpful for macro economic analysis, without further refinement it is not possible to determine the assets required to meet short term variations in heat demand.  For example, electrification of heat will have a direct impact on peak electricity and the capacity requirements of the assets to meet this demand. To address this, a model was constructed which uses actual metered space and water heat demand data collected from residential properties.  These are then converted to an annual half hourly national heat and electricity demand profile based on annual heat demand scenarios as well as assumptions for heat electrification and the efficiency of electrical heating systems.  Space heating is Read more…

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The-impact-of-future-heat-demand-pathways-on-the-economics-of-low-carbon-heating-systems.pdf 1.61 MBSansom_Impact_of_heat_pathways_on_economics_low_carbon_heating_Sept-2012.pdf 974.31 KB
19th
Sep
2012

Estimating Direct and Indirect Rebound Effects for UK Households

Dr Mona Chitnis, University of Surrey Policymakers expect improved energy efficiency to play a key role in reducing GHG emissions. However, the energy and emissions savings from such improvements may be less than simple calculations suggest, owing to a variety of mechanisms that go under the heading of rebound effects. Direct rebound effects result from increased demand for cheaper energy services: for example, insulation lowers heating costs and encourages households to heat their homes for longer and/or to higher temperatures. Indirect rebound effects result from re-spending the resulting cost savings on other goods and services: for example clothes that are manufactured in China and shipped to the UK. Energy efficiency improvements, such as cavity wall insulation, lead to both types of effect, while conservation measures such as lowering the thermostat lead only to indirect effects. In combination, they can be significant. In this paper, we simulate a number of energy efficiency improvements and conservation measures by UK households and estimate the resulting direct and indirect rebound effects. The measures considered include insulation improvements, energy efficient lighting, fuel-efficient cars and walking/cycling Read more…

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Living-up-to-expectations-estimating-direct-and-indirect-rebound-effects-for-uk-households.pdf 608.69 KBChitnis-Estimating-Direct-And-Indirect-Rebound-Effects-For-UK-Householdsfinal.pdf 406.94 KB
19th
Sep
2012

A review of current and future costs and benefits of demand response for electricity for the UK

Mr Peter Bradley, University of Surrey Demand response can play a key role in bringing about a low carbon electricity system and more efficient allocation and use of electricity which will have both economic and environmental benefits.    To ensure demand response, there is a need for infrastructure as well as the right institutional environment to ensure participation.  Electricity market reforms can play a role in ensuring the right institutional arrangements to help encourage demand response and to reduce barriers to demand response.   For regulators to have confidence in regulatory changes required to accommodate demand response for electricity, they must know the economic case for demand response   This is the subject of the current paper.  The paper firstly reviews and clearly outlines the different forms of demand response that exist and then goes on to assess the economic case for demand response through synthesis of five of the most relevant papers/reports assessing potential current and future costs and benefits of demands response in the UK.  Quantification of all costs and benefits relating to various forms of demand response was not possible, Read more…

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A-review-of-the-costs-and-benefits-of-demand-response-for-Electricity-in-the-UK.pdf 777.08 KBBradley_A_review_of_the_costs__benefits_of_demand_response.pdf 418.32 KB
19th
Sep
2012

Green Deal and the Energy Company Obligation – will it work?

Mr Jan Rosenow, Oxford University, Environmental Change Institute The current UK energy efficiency policy context is very fluid with a number of new policies due to be introduced in 2012 and 2013, including “The Green Deal” and “The Energy Company Obligation”. These mark a substantial change from the existing policy regime in a number of ways, notably the explicit aim of supporting higher cost energy efficiency technologies in housing and an attempt to engage new sources of private sector finance. However, there are concerns that the pace of change may be too fast, that policies have been insufficiently piloted and that the supply chain and the home owners will respond to the extent expected. This paper provides a critical analysis of the proposed policy changes both in terms of the institutional changes and the implications of a new finance mechanism for energy efficiency policy, as well as the overall impact on carbon reduction. While recognising the innovative nature of the new policies put forward by Government, the paper highlights some weaknesses in the proposals. First, there is a risk that Read more…

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Green-Deal-and-Energy-Company-Obligation-pres-final.pdf 768.7 KBThe-Green-Deal-and-the-Energy-Company-Obligation-.pdf 614.22 KB
19th
Sep
2012

Passenger Road Transport in the Long Run

Katharina Gruenberg, Shell Research Ltd In a rapidly changing world the demand for energy seems ever increasing. Good insight into future energy demand levels of now developing countries is usually obtained from the countries that have already climbed up the so-called energy ladder based on economic drivers. Commonly acknowledged, the energy economies of the countries will vary further by geographic and demographic variables: indisputably, India, being warmer and more dispersed, will exhibit a different domestic heating and transport patterns of energy consumption than the ‘average OECD country’. The question is: How different? What will the patterns of the developing countries look like in the future and what is the impact at the world level? And what is the time frame we are talking about? Shell is known for its interest in long-term future energy consumption, through work such as “Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050” published in 2008. This presentation will show the results of further incorporating important country-specific characteristics into our long-term outlooks for energy.

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Passenger Road Transport in the Long Run - Presentation.pdf 136.46 KB
23rd
Sep
2010

Making the least reactive pay: A consumer penalty/reward mechanism for Demand Response programs

Dr Jacopo Torriti, University of Surrey The orthodox approach for incentivising Demand Response (DR) programs is that utility losses from capital costs, installations and planning DR should be recovered under financial incentive mechanisms such as the Cost Recovery Mechanisms and the Lost Revenue Mechanisms. These mechanims aim to ensure that utilities have the right incentives in place to implement DR activities. The national smart metering roll-out in the UK means that utilities will already recover the capital costs associated with DR technology and recoup them through higher bills or upfront fees. This paper introduces a penalty/reward mechanism focusing on consumers. The utility DR planning costs are still recovered through payments from those consumers who do not react to price signals. In addition, those consumers who react to price signals, hence shifting loads, will be rewarded by paying less for their electricity consumption. Because real-time incentives to residential consumers tend to fail due to the negligible amounts associated with net gains (and losses) for the individual consumer, in the proposed mechanism the regulator determines cumulative benchmarks which are matched against responses Read more…

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Making the least reactive pay - Paper.pdf 492.4 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Personal carbon Taxation: its role in climate policy

Dr Tina Fawcett University of Oxford In the UK, there is currently little interest in exploring increased direct personal carbon taxation as a response to climate change. In theory it should be an attractive policy tool, being cheaper and administratively simpler to introduce than personal carbon trading, and more comprehensive than the current patchwork of product, housing, renewable energy and behavioural policies. So why isn’t it perceived as being an important part of the future policy mix, and is this likely to change? This paper reviews UK and European evidence on responses to personal carbon and energy taxes and focuses on three aspects; (1) their effects on behaviour in the short and longer term; (2) social acceptability, and; (3) the political risks involved in introducing increases in taxation. Using historical and current evidence, this review concentrates on energy and carbon taxation of household energy, using experience from transport and aviation fuels where necessary to enrich the analysis. It identifies effective taxation policies, and considers whether these could be extended to make a substantial and sustained contribution to household emissions reduction. Read more…

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Personal carbon Taxation - Paper.pdf 156.02 KBPersonal carbon Taxation - Presentation.pdf 262.89 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

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