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Energy Barometer 2016

Deane Somerville, Knowledge Team Manager, Energy Institute The 2016 Energy Barometer Report captures insights from UK energy professionals and enables them to form the energy debate, policymakers, influencers, the industry and the public. Deane Somerville has worked in the Knowledge Team at the Energy Institute for the past three years, and has been involved in the development and production of the Energy Barometer as well as other Knowledge Service products. Prior to joining the EI, he worked in environmental consulting, focusing on contaminated site remediation. Academically, his background is in Geology as well as Energy and Environmental Technology. Deane is a Graduate member of the Energy Institute.  

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Energy_Barometer_2016-Somerville.pdf 1.35 MB
21st
Sep
2016

Electrification of heating: the role of heat pumps

Dr Tina Fawcett, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Russell Layberry, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Nick Eyre, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford   Heating accounted for  44%  of UK national energy demand in 2011 (DECC, 2013). It is currently predominantly supplied by natural gas. However, the future of heating  is thought to be very different , with electrification expected on a grand scale. UK 2050 scenarios which meet the 80% carbon reduction target universally include an electrified heat supply. Most commonly, heat pumps are seen as the key technology, delivering 80-90% of heating.  While heat pumps can deliver low carbon energy services, given sufficient supplies of low carbon electricity, their contribution to the other energy policy goals of security of supply and affordable costs are much less certain. This paper will set out the major challenges for widespread adoption of heat pumps in the UK and worldwide, present original modelling work on the effect of heat pump adoption on electricity system peaks globally and for individual countries, discuss these findings in the context of other challenges to Read more…

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Fawcett-Layberry-Eyre-Electrification-of-Heating-v5.pdf 522.11 KB
18th
Sep
2014

Envisioning Smarter Power Futures: UK Smart Grid Scenarios

Dr Peter Connor, University of Exeter, Tom Watson, University of Westminster, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, University of Westminster, Colin Axon, Brunel University, Lorraine Whitmarsh, Cardiff University, Alexa Spence, University of Nottingham We present a set of socio-technical scenarios for the development of smart grids (SG) in the UK. Our scenarios examine markets and the role of new actors, consumer choices and perceptions, the importance and uses of data and information, policy drivers and barriers, investment decisions, and technological solutions for network assets. Our interdisciplinary programme integrated strong multi-stage stakeholder consultation. The UK offers an interesting test bed for smarter electricity networks in terms of policy, markets, regulation, and technology deployment. Heat and transport are expected to decarbonise through electrification, perhaps doubling demand to 2050; growth in renewable energy may improve security of supply yet introduce substantial intermittent capacity. It is unclear whether these drivers for smartness will be greater than the barriers, and the UK’s broken value chain may be a particular problem. The current network will need to become smarter, but at what rate? How can stakeholders be efficiently incentivised, and Read more…

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Connor-Envisioning-Smarter-Power-Futures.pdf 1.63 MB
18th
Sep
2014

Financing the UK Power Sector: is the Money Available?

 Dr Rob Gross, Imperial College, London Dr William Blyth, Imperial College The electricity sector needs to renew its ageing generation fleet, and shift towards capital-intensive low-carbon forms of generation. Over the past few years, various organisations and commentators have suggested that the sector may be unable to deliver, questioning whether there will be a sufficient flow of money into the sector to finance these investments. This report examines the evidence for these claims, looking at three key issues: ·     The size of the gap between required and current levels of investment, ·     The ability of energy companies to scale up their capital expenditures, ·     The ability of financial institutions to provide the necessary funds, and the mechanisms by which they might do so. Estimates of the size of the investment challenge range from the DECC / OFGEM figure of £110bn by 2020 to between £200bn to over 300bn by 2030 from organisations such as National Grid, the Committee on Climate Change and London School of Economics. These scenarios are assessed on a like-for-like annualised basis to understand the reasons for Read more…

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Blyth-Financing-the-UK-Power-Sector-BIEE.pdf 1.25 MB
18th
Sep
2014

Integrating the Social Cost of Power Outages into Reliability Planning

Mr Nelson Jr Enano, IEPI, UCL Australia, University College London Michel Berthelemy, IEPI, UCL Australia, University College London Tony Owen, IEPI, UCL Australia, University College London Stefaan Simons, IEPI, UCL Australia, University College London Overview: In electricity systems, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) is often used to assess the required capacity needed for system adequacy. While electricity consumers are accustomed to LOLE based level of reliability, there remains large uncertainty regarding the economic costs and risks power outages impose to electricity consumers. This uncertainty tends to increase with the liberalization of power markets, the possibility of demand-side participation, or the level of renewable energy penetration. In addition, the policy relevance of these structural changes is particularly relevant in developing countries where high level of power outages often remains the norm.   The value of lost load (VOLL) is the willingness to pay (WTP) of consumers to avoid an additional period without power (Leahy and Tol, 2011). This study outlines various methodologies that can be used to estimate the VOLL and presents the results of an empirical investigation to estimate Read more…

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Enano-Integrating-the-social-cost-of-power-interruption-with-reliability-planning.pdf 282.57 KB
17th
Sep
2014

Demand-Side Management Policy: Failure and Transferability

Mr Peter Warren, UCL Energy Institute Overview: Demand-side management (DSM) policy includes both energy efficiency and demand response and is becoming increasingly topical around the world due to energy security issues. Previous research has looked at what works, but not the mechanisms behind how and why certain government policies succeed or fail, and the transferability of best practices between countries.   Methodology: This paper presents the full results of a PhD, which undertook a systematic review of the global evidence over the last forty years from DSM policy evaluations across academic, industrial and government databases, to synthesise the mechanisms behind success and failure for specific policies. The systematic review is triangulated with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making analysis with key DSM policy experts.   Results: The research covered 27 countries on six continents. The full results are currently being analysed but preliminary results show that the three most successful policies globally are performance standards, utility obligations and fiscal measures. The two least successful policies globally are information campaigns and labelling. However, policy packages have shown some success in improving the effectiveness of information Read more…

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Warren-Demand-Side-Management-Policy-Failure-and-Transferability.pdf 422.58 KB
17th
Sep
2014

Modelling the Impact of Market Imperfections on Farm Household Investment in Stand-Alone Solar PV

Professor Euan Phimister, University of Aberdeen Euan Phimister, University of Aberdeen Yakubu Abdul-Salam, University of Aberdeen Overview According to the International Energy Agency, over 1.6 billion of the world’s population mostly living in rural regions of developing countries have no access to electricity. Access to electricity has been shown to have significant benefits for rural inhabitants.  At a household level, the value of access to electricity to the household is derived from a number of sources.  The consumption of goods and services which are not possible without access to electricity provide direct utility, e.g. electric light, mobile phones, plus indirect potential health benefits.   Recent research on Ghana shows that small household systems consisting of a solar panel PV plus battery would provide a cost effective solution to extending universal electrification for at least a million households.  However, improving standalone access to electricity requires purchase and adoption of a capital intensive system by many poor rural farm households. The object of this paper is to investigate the long run properties of an optimal self-funded solar panel acquisition scheme for the Read more…

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Phimister_Modelling-the-Impact-of-Market-Imperfections-on-Farm-Household-Investment-in-Stand-Alone-Solar-PV.pdf 575.35 KB
17th
Sep
2014

The Effects of an Ambitious Danish Energy Policy

Professor Eirik S. Amundsen,University of Bergen, Norway, University of Copenhagen/ Danish Economic Councils As for other EU-countries, Denmark is required to achieve a country-specific target on renewables and on reduction of carbon emission within the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. In particular, the renewables’ target facing Denmark is a share of 30% by 2020. However, the Danish Parliament has set out to follow a very ambitious policy of expanding the renewables capacity. This will result in an over-fulfillment of the EU requirement. Most likely the share will attain 35% by 2020. In this paper we evaluate the effects over-fulfilling the renewable target, both in terms of price and quantity effects in the Nordic electricity market and in terms of welfare foregone due the alternative use of resources put into to the support schemes. As Denmark is not alone in planning for a more ambitious renewables’ policy, the results should be of some general interest. In order to evaluate these effects we analyze a case where the direct subsidies for all new renewables projects are removed. In so doing, Read more…

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Amundsen-The-Effects-of-an-Ambitious-Danish-Energy-Policy.pdf 719.53 KB
17th
Sep
2014

On the market prospects of long-term electricity shortages

Dr Amela Ajanovic, Vienna University of Technology Reinhard Haas, Vienna University of Technology Overview. The European Commission has set ambitious targets for increasing the share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E).  An increasing share of these new RES-E comes from intermittent sources like wind and solar. To balance electricity supply over time calls for storages has been launched. Because intermittency also exists over longer periods – months, years, — also the need for long-term- electricity storages  is discussed. The core objective of this paper is to investigate what are the market  prospects  of such  long-term- electricity  storages like hydro pump storages, hydrogen and methane from power-to-gas conversion technologies. To answer this question we use a dynamic framework to model supply from various quantities of intermittent RES- E in Western Europe and the load profiles. The method of approach is on the supply side based on technological learning  for the future development of investment costs of long-term  storages based on quantities  for technologies described in IEA (2011). On the electricity market side we use a fundamental approach where the intersection Read more…

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Ajanovic_Haas_On-the-market-prospects-of-long-term-electricity-shortages-2.pdf 986.83 KB
17th
Sep
2014

Liberalisation vs. Decarbonisation: The Effects of EU Renewables and Internal Electricity Market Policies on the Evolution of Fuel mixes and market concentration rates

Dr Frederik Dahlmann, University of Warwick Johan Lindeque, Amsterdam Business School Ans Kolk, Amsterdam Business School Overview The European electricity generation sector has been subject to several high-profile EU policy interventions over the last two decades, including policies related to market liberalization and integration (Directives 96/92/EC, 2003/54/EC and 2009/72/EC) and climate change through the promotion of (electricity generated from) renewable energy (Directives 2001/77/EC and 2009/28/EC). Although several separate evaluations of these EU climate change and energy policies exist (e.g., Battaglini, et al., 2012, Capros et al., 2011 – both in Energy Policy; Padgett, 1992; Torriti, 2010 – both in JCMS), in this paper we aim to address the lack of an integrated assessment of how the related EU internal electricity market and renewable energy policies have affected both member states’ fuel mixes and their generation capacity concentration rates. Methodology For our empirical research we draw on data from Platts ‘PowerVision’. PowerVision provides power plant specific data and information on installed and planned generation capacity in the European power sector. For our analyses we draw on all installed power generation capacities Read more…

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Dahlmann-Liberalisation-Versus-Decarbonisation.pdf 542.04 KB
17th
Sep
2014

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