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Geopolitics: Understanding Gazprom

Nicholas Perry, PES Ltd Russian military doctrine would encourage Gazprom to ‘think in 4-D’, to move swiftly, unexpectedly, and on multiple axes, to ‘condition the battlefield’ in its favour.  To deliver tactical surprise, even when no strategic surprise is possible.  To manoeuvre; to bypass resistance, to abandon units that have served their purpose, to avoid coalitions and drive wedges between opposing groupings.  Can anyone doubt that, over the past year or so, it has been doing exactly these things ?  Time taken to master this perspective may be well repaid.   Will Gazprom succeed ?  It cannot fail to have a measure of success, given the gas resources it commands and the premium currently placed upon gas.  But a fall in oil and gas prices could be a serious setback.  “Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks”, as Talleyrand is supposed to have said.  The military perspective is just one of several that can be taken.  But governments and companies can put themselves at unnecessary disadvantage if they ignore it. There Read more…

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Understanding_Gazprom_2006_pap.pdf 182.22 KBUnderstanding_Gazprom_2006_pres.pdf 2.03 MB
20th
Sep
2006

Security Issues: EU Standards for energy security of supply

Martin Scheepers, ECN, The Netherlands In a review process to assess the energy security of supply (SoS) for the EU and individual Member States, standards can provide a common and objective framework in EU energy policy.  In particular, they could be useful in the context of the Strategic EU Energy Review as proposed by the European Commission in its recent Green Paper on EU energy policy. Standards shouldbe based on security of supply indicators. This report elaborates the proposed concept of energysecurity of supply standards. It explains the role of (novel) indicators in the standards and the process for using and developing them. Also the use of SoS standards in a review process of energy supply security is elucidated. The report describes the development of two quantitative indicators that can be used in EU security of supply standards. The first one is the Supply/Demand Index, which is based on a Member State’s energy system covering not only the supply of primary energy sources but also the conversion and transport of secondary energy carriers and the final energy demands. The S/D Read more…

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EU_standards_for_energy_security_of_supply_2006_pres.pdf 303.14 KBEU_Standards_for_Energy_Security_of_Supply__2006_pap.pdf 673.45 KB
20th
Sep
2006

Geopolitics: The New Security Environment for European Gas: Worsening Geopolitics and Increasing Global Competition for LNG

Jonathan Stern, Oxford Energy Institute The combination of impending decline of indigenous production, political and institutional obstacles to gas export developments within gas supplying countries, and the worsening geopolitical environment between those countries and Europe, seems set to place longer term supply constraints on the expansion prospects for European gas markets. Concern about the reliability of Russian gas supplies is, in part, a symbol of worsening political relationships between Russia and Europe. Large scale diversification away from Russian gas supplies may not be possible and, given the political problems in the Middle East and Africa, may not lead to greater supply security. While Europe will achieve greater diversity of supply sources through LNG imports, it will increasingly compete for these supplies with buyers in both North America and the Pacific Basin. Unless this situation improves, worsening geopolitics will place limits on Russian gas supplies and create problems for the development of large scale alternative supplies, thereby threatening the future of natural gas in European energy balances.

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The_new_security_environment_for_European_gas_trade_2006_pres.pdf 55.25 KBThe_New_Security_Environment_for_European_Gas_Worsening_Geopolitics_and_Increasing_Global_Competition_for_LNG_2006_pap.pdf 7.8 KB
20th
Sep
2006

High Energy Prices and the World Economy

Christopher Allsopp, Oxford Energy Institute The relationship between energy prices and the world economy is examined. World growth has been strong and benign growth is forecast. However, there are risks from oil price increases and volatility as well as global account imbalances and geopolitics. Oil price impacts (so far) appear very different from past oil shocks with a muted effect on inflation. This has implications for policy responses, simulations and price forecasts. Interest rates have been going up largely due to rapid actual and anticipated world growth. Growth forecasts are raising concerns over energy security. In the short run, supply and demand elasticities are low, however in the longer run considerable adaptation is likely. Many believe in a ‘new energy paradigm’ with high and volatile prices. High oil prices encourage alternatives such as tar sands and especially cheap and abundant coal. Both raise serious environment and climate change concerns.

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HIGH-ENERGY-PRICES-AND-THE-WORLD-ECONOMY-2006.pdf 433.81 KB
20th
Sep
2006

Security Issues: Strategic storage and security of gas supply in the UK

David Cox and Andrew Nind, Poyry Energy Consulting The delivery of significant quantities of reliable, new gas supplies is required to meet future demand for gas, and there are a number of large infrastructure projects currently under development that will bring new commercial supplies of gas to the UK.  There is some debate, however, as to whether the level of security of supply that will be delivered by the market, under its current regulatory structure, is as high as may be economically, socially or politically desirable. In addition there are a number of factors that have led to calls to examine the question of the long-term security of supply: ·         The increasing use of gas in electricity generation; ·         The declining ‘swing’ capability of UKCS production; ·         Concerns about the reliability of existing gas industry infrastructure; and ·         The UK’s increasing reliance on imports.  Imports will arrive by pipeline through Europe and as LNG in tankers delivering gas production from countries outside Europe. There is the possibility of an emerging ‘gap’ between supply and demand.  We define a gap as Read more…

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Strategic_storage_and_security_of_gas_supply_in_the_UK_2006_pres1.pdf 996.09 KBStrategic_storage_and_security_of_gas_supply_in_the_UK_2006_pap.pdf 306.77 KB
20th
Sep
2006

Demand Policies: Incorporating Behavioural Responses within a Technology Optimization Energy Model

Ramachandran Kannan and Neil Strachan, Policy Studies Institute This paper details modelling efforts within the UK Energy Research Centre’s Energy System Modelling theme, to integrate demand and behavioural responses into a technology optimization model.  This has involved the construction of detailed end-use technological characterization within a new MARKAL MACRO model for the UK.   The standard version of MARKAL is a dynamic technology-rich energy systems economic optimisation model of the entire UK energy system. The user inputs the structure of the energy system to be modelled, including resource supplies, energy conversion technologies, end-use demands, and the technologies used to satisfy these demands. MARKAL then calculates, using dynamic linear programming techniques, the least cost way to satisfy the specified demands, subject to a range of physical and user defined constraints.    This modelling paradigm has been extended in two ways.  Firstly, detailed end-use characterization of energy technologies and efficiency options within disaggregated energy service demands was undertaken.  This allows detailed assessment of the scope for energy efficiency reductions, including the actual costs of efficiency measures, hurdle rates to mimic market risk, Read more…

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Incorporating_Behavioural_Responses_within_a_Technology_Optimization_Energy_Model_2006_pres.pdf 164.96 KB
20th
Sep
2006

Demand Policies: Can Energy Services companies deliver low carbon new build homes?

Sharad Saxena, Oxford University Centre for the Environment The UK has set for itself an ambitious target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050. To achieve this target, carbon reductions would need to be made by all sectors including the residential sector which presently accounts for 28% of CO2 emissions. Energy Services Companies (ESCOs) could address the barriers to energy efficiency and microgeneration through design build, finance, operation and maintenance provision (DBFO). Energy services contracting will only be chosen where the reduction in cost of supplying energy services can more than offset the additional transaction cost compared to conventional supply. Previous work has identified three broad models of energy services: the Facilities Management or performance contract model for business commercial and public sector customers; the Community Model where decisions are taken on behalf of a group of customers (predominantly householders) in the same location; and the Supplier model  where existing energy suppliers could evolve their offer to domestic customers. The Community model in new build has particular interest, in that it offers a viable route for the development Read more…

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Can_Energy_services_companies_deliver_low_carbon_homes_2006_pres.pdf 59.63 KB
20th
Sep
2006

Demand Policies: Energy Consumption Takes Time

John Dimitropoulos, University of Sussex Although time has been recognised as an important factor determining patterns of consumption, its importance for energy use has only recently been appreciated. Time scarcity can drive consumption decisions and therefore influence energy consumption in many ways. Using elements of household production theory, as developed by Gary Becker, this paper explores the implications for household energy consumption under constrained time. Demand for energy is derived from demand for energy services that are produced within the household. Household production is then optimised subject to inequality constraints that reveal three insightful cases for potential allocation of time and income. Under assumptions, the non-linear optimisation problem is then aggregated across consumers and stretched over stages of economic development. Becker’s framework depicts successfully the well-documented historical path of employment, leisure and consumption as capital accumulates in a growing economy. In addition, a characteristics model, as suggested by Lancaster (1971), is implemented for an energy service. Analysis followed by an illustrative example in characteristics space exhibits that time scarcity can impose preferences that oppose the traditional income-driven choice in energy Read more…

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Energy_consumption_takes_time_2006_pres.pdf 235.28 KB
20th
Sep
2006

Energy Policies in a Global Context

Paul Chambers, Defra Forecast global carbon reductions from 2002 to 2030 are reviewed, indicating that energy efficiency is expected to account for over 50% of emission reductions and renewable energy technologies for 20%. UK policy levers are reviewed together with options across the sectors of transport, industry, business/public sector and households. Policies to address the carbon intensity of supply, energy efficiency, demand reduction and R&D are discussed across these sectors. International policies to address the carbon reduction options of supply, energy efficiency and demand are reviewed.

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Energy_Policies_in_a_Global_Context_2006_pres.pdf 289.19 KB
20th
Sep
2006

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