A panel model for predicting the diversity of internal temperatures from English dwellings

Mr Scott Kelly, University of Cambridge

Using panel methods, a model for predicting daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock is developed. The model offers an important link that connects building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables. The model is able to predict internal temperatures across a heterogeneous building stock to within ~0.71°C at 95% confidence and explain 45% of the variance of internal temperature between dwellings. The model confirms hypothesis from sociology and psychology that habitual behaviours are important drivers of home energy consumption. In addition, the model offers the possibility to quantify take-back (direct rebound effect) owing to increased internal temperatures from the installation of energy efficiency measures. The presence of thermostats or thermostatic radiator valves (TRV) are shown to reduce average internal temperatures, however, the use of an automatic timer is statistically insignificant. The number of occupants, household income and occupant age are all important factors that explain a proportion of internal temperature demand. Households with children or retired occupants are shown to have higher average internal temperatures than households who do not. As expected, building typology, building age, roof insulation thickness, wall U-value and the proportion of double glazing all have statistically significant effects on mean internal temperature. In summary, the model can be used as a tool to predict internal temperatures or for making statistical inferences. However, its primary contribution offers the ability to calibrate existing building stock models to account for behaviour and socio-demographic effects making it possible to back-out more accurate predictions of domestic energy demand.

Categories:

Tags: ,

Predicting-the-diversity-of-internal-dwelling-temperatures-from-the-English-residential-sector.pdf 1.78 MBKelly_Predicting-the-diversity-of-dwelling-temperatures-using-panel-regression-methods-small-7.pdf 582.48 KB

Comments are closed.

Downloads Archive

	            SELECT YEAR(post_date) AS `year`, MONTH(post_date) AS `month`, count(ID) as posts FROM wp_posts WHERE post_type = 'resources' AND post_parent = 0 AND post_status = 'publish' GROUP BY YEAR(post_date), MONTH(post_date) ORDER BY post_date DESC LIMIT 100	        
	            Array
(
    [0] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [1] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [2] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 10
        )

    [3] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [4] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [5] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [6] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [7] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2019
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [8] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [9] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [10] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 53
        )

    [11] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [12] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [13] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2018
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [14] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [15] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 7
        )

    [16] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [17] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [18] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [19] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2017
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [20] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [21] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [22] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 51
        )

    [23] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 7
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [24] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [25] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [26] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [27] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2016
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [28] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [29] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [30] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 8
        )

    [31] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [32] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [33] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [34] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [35] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2015
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [36] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [37] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 6
        )

    [38] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 51
        )

    [39] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [40] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [41] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [42] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [43] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [44] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2014
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [45] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [46] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 9
        )

    [47] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 12
        )

    [48] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 7
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [49] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [50] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [51] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [52] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [53] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2013
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [54] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 6
        )

    [55] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 57
        )

    [56] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [57] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [58] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [59] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2012
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [60] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [61] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [62] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 10
        )

    [63] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [64] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [65] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2011
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [66] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2010
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 4
        )

    [67] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2010
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 49
        )

    [68] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2010
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [69] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2010
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [70] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [71] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [72] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 13
        )

    [73] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [74] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 2
            [posts] => 5
        )

    [75] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2009
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [76] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [77] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 3
        )

    [78] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 24
        )

    [79] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [80] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2008
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [81] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 12
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [82] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [83] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 10
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [84] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 10
        )

    [85] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 6
            [posts] => 2
        )

    [86] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 5
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [87] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2007
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [88] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2006
            [month] => 11
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [89] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2006
            [month] => 9
            [posts] => 31
        )

    [90] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2006
            [month] => 3
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [91] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2006
            [month] => 1
            [posts] => 1
        )

    [92] => stdClass Object
        (
            [year] => 2004
            [month] => 4
            [posts] => 1
        )

)

Memberships

Become a member

For priority access to our events & gain access to our downloadable resources

Email updates

Sign up

To receive email updates about our forthcoming events and news please sign up here.

Why attend a BIEE Conference?