Peter Parsons, National Grid Provides a detailed overview in respect to gas, covering: fuel prices; relative power economics; demand; demand forecasts; peak demand; supply forecasts from UKCS, interconnectors and LNG; and storage capacity. For electricity it is apparent that demand forecasts uncertainty has increased, and details are provided on: assumed availability of generators and interconnectors; generation and demand forecasts and outturns; normal demand and notified generation availability; 1 in 20 demand and assumed generation availability. In respect to the outlook for 2011/12 for gas: forward winter fuel prices strongly favour coal to be base load generation, providing a potential upside to gas demand; weather corrected gas demand forecast will be similar to last winter, though peak demand forecast is lower due to power generation assumptions; forecast non-storage supplies are similar to last winter with lower UKCS being offset by more LNG, albeit LNG supplies are subject to some uncertainties; and storage levels similar to last winter, but should increase in the winter when new facilities are commissioned. For electricity the outlook suggests that: the average Cold Spell Demand forecast will Read more…
Peter Parsons, National Grid The winter outlook for 2010/11 is presented for gas and electricity, in respect to weather forecasts, gas demand and supply, electricity demand and supply, whilst also considering supply issues and security of supply. An overview of the mechanisms for meeting the UK environmental targets and Grid’s future scenarios is also provided. In respect to gas, it is highlighted that: the peak day demand forecast is higher than last year; forecast non storage supplies are higher than last year with potential upsides in LNG; storage deliverability is reduced due to less LNG and a review of the actual deliverability from all storage sites; forecast spreads between gas or coal for base load is very small. For electricity, the average Cold Spell Demand forecast is the same as last year and the notified and assumed generation availability is also similar, although there is a large potential upside in new CCGT commissioning during the winter. Based on this and even with uncertainties, the forecast indicates the winter should be manageable, subject to events. In terms of supply issues key Read more…
Tags: Climate change, Contracts, Electricity generation, EU, Export, Fossil fuels, Gas outlook, Import, Interconnectors, LNG, National Grid, Natural gas, Retail market, Russia, Storage, Supply demand balance, Ukraine, Wholesale market2010 Winter Outlook and a future view.pdf 1.44 MB
Peter Parsons, National Grid Considers the outlook for gas and electricity, and the lessons that have been learnt from the previous winter. This is covered in respect to: Met Office weather forecast and winter temperatures; gas (demand, supply and cold weather analysis); and electricity (assumptions and winter analysis). It is suggested that the basis for gas and electricity demand will be similar to the previous winter. For gas: there is a high dependency on weather; demand uncertainties will continue, due to the impact of gas prices, efficiency measures, LCPD, availability of generating plant; that for supply there is uncertainty for all imports as a result of Norway and its continental priorities and LNG because of global market competition and commissioning of new plant; finally it is recognised that severe, or a prolonged period of, cold weather could necessitate a demand response. For electricity, power generation will be subject to plant availability and the impact of LCPD, although there is an assumption that coal will be used for base load unless prices lead to fuel switching. Also it is anticipated that Read more…Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2008.pdf 328.91 KB
David Cox, Pöyry Energy Consulting Provides a detailed analysis of the major drivers to energy prices and the relationship between oil price and the prices for coal, gas and power. Consideration is given to price in forward markets, price risk, global and regional markets, and the potential impact of the credit crunch. Future prices are considered through four views of the future world (Slow-motion Shock; Supply Hell; Demand Crash; and Technology Heaven). It is suggested that oil price weakening will bring down Continental oil-indexed gas contracts, but not before next spring and that Continental gas prices should set the floor for UK gas prices. However, a number of factors could combine to result in much lower prices, such as: a warm winter; low coal prices reducing gas demand in power generation; and lower demand for global LNG resulting in cargoes being “dumped” into the UK. However, if the winter is colder than average and gas from Norway/Continent/LNG does not arrive, the price could rocket upwards. It is recognised that any decrease in liquidity will exasperate the volatility.
Tags: Contracts, Crude oil, Europe, Finance, Forecasts, Fossil fuels, Gas outlook, gobal, GPD, LNG, Natural gas, Non-OPEC, Norway, Oil markets, OPEC, Pricing, Production, Production capacity, Resources, Retail market, Risk, Supply demand balance, UK, Upstream, Wholesale marketWinter Gas Outlook Prices - 2008.pdf 1.24 MB
Andrew Ryan, National Grid 19 June 2007 Describes the Winter Consultation Report covering gas and electricity and their key interactions, using a set of assumptions and scenarios to highlight what could happen over the winter (based upon views from within the energy industry). For gas, consideration is given to: non-storage supplies; the capacity of import routes and storage options; gas prices; balance in terms of peak demand (per day and during a cold week and month); the demand-supply balance for a 1 in 50 winter; and what this may mean for demand turndown requirements. This is compared alongside assumptions for electricity supply and demand; highlighting both short term and long terms issues that need to be considered to balance them.Supply Demand Balance Winter 2007-08.pdf 523.83 KB
John Greasley and Simon Griew, National Grid Transco Sets out the pre-winter view from Grid; in respect to gas covering: transportation requirements; gas forecasts; plant mothballing status; changes to market rules; gas/electricity interactions; CCGT interruptions; and proposals to mitigate negative impacts. Consideration is also given to electricity covering: plant margins; market signals; and the positive and negative key uncertainties going into winter including generation and interconnector availability. This is considered against winter demand based on temperature profile and average weekly ACS demand. The interactions between gas and electricity are discussed in respect to: GB gas-fired power stations; interruptible arrangements; and the potential for firm CCGTs to arbitrage. What happened to gas is also considered, covering Beach and Interconnector deliveries and firm demand-side management. A range of issues looking forward for winter gas and electricity supply are discussed.UK Gas and Electricity Supplies a review of the Winter 2003.pdf 396.55 KB