Jeremy Oppenheim, McKinsey Global Institute The next twenty years will see a 35% increase in resource demand, driven by 3 billion new middle-class consumers. This will require a resource revolution that: aggressively maximises currently available productivity opportunities; enhances access to resource supply; and accelerates the next frontier of resource innovation. It is suggested that there are seven priority areas for action in order to realise this resource revolution. Four relate to ‘classic’ market failures, including: a lack of property rights; pricing of externalities; capital market failures; and dealing with the ‘public good’ nature of innovation. The other three go beyond standard market failures, and include: the need for new, integrated institutional approaches to resource governance; building awareness of resource-related risks; and shaping mindsets and consumer behaviour. These issues are discussed within the context of growing global wealth and trends in commodities, including historic prices and price volatility for a number of key resources, including energy, food, metals and agricultural materials.Resource Revolution.pdf 2.95 MB
Howard Rogers, OIES Natural Gas Programme In the context of European gas markets and international LNG markets, a number of issues are highlighted, covering: Europe’s hybrid gas market; the impact of gas gluts; continental gas market evolution; and midstream exposure. An overview of the original rationale for indexing gas prices to oil prices is provided, in respect to long term contracts and the way that major players (sellers and buyers) have worked with them. It is suggested that indexing will start to shift towards a more hub-based approach to pricing, but it will take several years before new pricing and contractual frameworks become established, during which there are likely to be some major problems for existing long term contracts.European Gas Contracts Will Oil Indexation persist OIES 2011.pdf 948.47 KB
Michael Smith, BP Provides an overview of recent developments in key markets, in respect to regional supply and demand, LNG supply and demand, and price signals; in the context of the near and long term market outlooks. It is apparent that: there has been a strong gas demand recovery in major markets, although there are significant weather and fuel switching elements within this demand recovery; delayed ramp-up in LNG supply and flexibility of European suppliers have limited the impact of recession on prices outside of N. America; the near term market outlook is highly uncertain but in the medium term the market will re-balance; contrasting supply trends will dictate future LNG requirements (shale gas in N. America, European production decline, and the emergence of new LNG importers in Asia and elsewhere).Global Gas and LNG balance 2010 Compatibility Mode.pdf 1.48 MB
Professor Mike Bradshaw, University of Leicester The state-sponsored Eastern Programme was initiated in 2007, with Gazprom being given a monopoly over its implementation and the export of natural gas to the Asia-Pacific. It will see the gasification of key economic centres in East Siberia and the Far East and key reasons for its development include: the diversification of Russian energy exports by developing new markets in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR); to diversify Russian exports from East Siberia and the Russian Far East by developing processing industries; to ensure the ‘effective occupation’ of Pacific Russia by providing domestic energy security, employment and export revenues; and to increase Russia’s economic weight in the APR. Detailed information is provided on the drivers and issues relating to the development of the strategy and its implementation. Whilst the economic and geostrategic logic of the strategy are clear, it is not apparent how quickly it might be implemented or funded, the coming years are seen as critical and a number of issues remain.Russias Eastern Gas Strategy 2010 Compatibility Mode.pdf 2.6 MB
Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs International The Top230 study models the largest 230 new oil and gas developments in the world to provide insight into the development of large new projects, the industry’s ability to deliver them, and the declining rates of the producing base. The study shows that of the largest developments, 13 are within Europe, 25 are within South America, 31 are in the Asia-Pacific, 50 are in North America, 55 are within Asia and the Middle East and 56 are within Africa. Production levels for those fields that are included in the Top230 study, as well as those outside of it, are shown from 2002 (projected to 2014). Key findings in terms of oil supply include: a decline in maturing new projects based on Final Investment Decisions between 2007/09; decline rates in non-OPEC have increased; and the industry’s delivery track record has been very poor. If these trends continue, non-OPEC faces potentially disastrous production declines.
Tags: 2009 conference, Africa, Asia, Asia Pacific, Crude oil, EU, Export, Forecasts, Fossil fuels, Gas markets, Global, Goldman Sachs International, Import, Middle East, Non-OPEC, North America, Oil markets, OPEC, Pricing, Production capacity, South America, Supply demand balance, sustainable energy the next crisis, Upstream, Volatility, Wholesale marketOil supply analysis from the Goldman Sachs Top 230 Study 2009.pdf 200.15 KB