Downloads / Fossil fuels

Oil Supply Analysis from the Goldman Sachs Top230 Study

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs International The Top230 study models the largest 230 new oil and gas developments in the world to provide insight into the development of large new projects, the industry’s ability to deliver them, and the declining rates of the producing base. The study shows that of the largest developments, 13 are within Europe, 25 are within South America, 31 are in the Asia-Pacific, 50 are in North America, 55 are within Asia and the Middle East and 56 are within Africa. Production levels for those fields that are included in the Top230 study, as well as those outside of it, are shown from 2002 (projected to 2014). Key findings in terms of oil supply include: a decline in maturing new projects based on Final Investment Decisions between 2007/09; decline rates in non-OPEC have increased; and the industry’s delivery track record has been very poor. If these trends continue, non-OPEC faces potentially disastrous production declines.

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Oil supply analysis from the Goldman Sachs Top 230 Study 2009.pdf 200.15 KB
21st
Sep
2009

OPEC Behaviour through the Lenses of the Oil Price Cycle

Bassam Fattouh, OIES Since 1986 the year-on-year change in global oil demand has generally exceeded total non-OPEC supply, with the gap increasingly met through OPEC. This is leading to a gradual decline in spare capacity and upward pressure on oil prices. Analysing OPEC’s response to this shows a cyclical pattern and an asymmetry is also evident, in terms of their objectives in a falling market, when they seek to defend oil prices from falling below some level deemed unacceptable; as well as in a rising  market where OPEC seek to increase output in response to customers’ demand at market determined prices. The mechanism and issues associated with these responses are described. Looking ahead, a range of uncertainties continue to exist, including these asymmetrical responses, as well as issues relating to inventories, spare capacity, and the views between OPEC and oil importers.

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OPEC behaviour through the lenses of the oil price cycle 2009.pdf 1.43 MB
21st
Sep
2009

Energy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy

Andrew Sentance, Bank of England. Provides an analysis of recovery in terms of global economic growth following the recent financial crisis, considering the role of a new global economy, energy prices and global environmental challenges within this. Key challenges for national economic policymakers are apparent, in respect to global interdependencies, global spillovers and the links between domestic and global, demand, growth and inflation. Globalisation remains important, even though it has resulted in volatility and made national economic management difficult, something national policies need to reflect. In addition, more effective international policy coordination is needed and this should include energy and the environment.

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Energy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy.pdf 249.66 KBEnergy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy Speech.pdf 125.11 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Building A low carbon Economy . The UK’s contribution to tackling climate change

David Kennedy, The Committee on Climate Change Provides a recap of the UK’s Intended and Interim carbon budgets to 2020 and the opportunities for emission reductions by sector covering: power; residential buildings; non-residential buildings and industry; transport; and agriculture. The macroeconomic impacts of the carbon budgets and the impacts of the recession are set out in respect to GDP against cost, emissions, carbon price and financing. The strategy for meeting the carbon budgets includes a requirement to strengthen key policies in respect to: residential buildings by overcoming known barriers (e.g. lack of information, hassle, procrastination and engagement); power markets by addressing the risks for private and social players under the current market arrangements; electric cars through the provision of interim price support for charging, information, and addressing planning barriers.

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The CCC Building a Low Carbon Economy.pdf 740.93 KB
30th
Mar
2009

China Moving towards low carbon growth 2009

Jim Watson, Sussex Energy Group China’s recent energy trends are described in terms of primary energy demand, energy intensity and power generation capacity, alongside environmental implications such as acid rain, total and per capita carbon emissions and attitudes to these. It is suggested that: per capita carbon emissions are low, but are rising from the production of goods for western consumers; there is a genuine desire to develop sustainably, but this is hindered by the financial crisis; and that significant progress in low carbon technologies is occurring, alongside improvements within energy efficiency, economic restructuring and innovation.

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China Moving towards low carbon growth 2009.pdf 295.28 KB
11th
Feb
2009

World Energy Outlook 2008

Dr Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency The context for the 2008 WEO includes: soaring energy prices to mid-2008, followed by a collapse; the financial crisis and economic slowdown; the possibility that economic worries will divert attention from strategic energy-security and environmental challenges; a possible supply-crunch once the economy recovers; and questions over what will come out of the COP-15 in Copenhagen. Each of these issues is discussed in respect to possible impacts for global energy demand and supply, set out through the IEA’s Reference Scenario and the climate policy scenarios (550 and 450). Details are provided on world primary energy demand, including the role of coal, oil, gas and electricity, and the prospects for oil and gas supplies. The summary suggests that: current energy trends are unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically; oil will remain the leading energy source but the era of cheap oil is over and the oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change; energy and geopolitics will be increasingly interconnected; the world’s energy system need to be decarbonised; and the financial crisis can plant the seeds for Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2008.pdf 1.14 MB
9th
Feb
2009

Kingsnorth and the Carbon Capture Question

Jim Watson, Sussex Energy Group, SPRU The development of CCS within the UK is discussed in the context of a potential new coal fired plant at Kingsnorth and the proposal that it would be CCS ready. CCS is seen as critical for GHG mitigation, but technical performance, economics and long term liabilities are very uncertain. Whilst the UK has been a leader in terms of the commitment to demonstration plant, detail on how this will happen is disappointing and has run into problems in terms of policy responses for handling applications for new coal plants before CCS is available. A key policy challenge is the balance between energy versus climate security, linking to coal imports, gas supplies, gas storage and diversity of supply. It is argued that mandatory emissions standard for new power plants would be a useful policy development.

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Kingsnorth and the Carbon Capture Question 2008.pdf 296.67 KB
19th
Nov
2008

Delivering Sustainability – The need for energy policy to engage more people than the ‘usual suspects’ – the supply-side

Catherine Mitchell, University of Exeter Sets out the nature of the current energy system in terms of incumbent energy companies and how Government policies support them, before asking what can be done about this. The implication of meeting the 2050 carbon targets is that the energy system (electricity, heat and transport) will need to be almost completely different from that in place today, requiring significant innovation and change. It is apparent that the Big Six dominate electricity supply and generation and large scale gas, at the expense of other key sectors (transport, heat, skills) and what may be needed are more inclusive and open policies and a strategic plan with political intervention and funds.

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Delivering Sustainability the need for energy policy to engage more people than the usual suspects the supply side.pdf 929.65 KB
17th
Nov
2008

Oil, Energy Markets and the World Economy

Christopher Allsopp, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Currently oil and other commodity prices, volatility, and the international financial crisis are all impacting on the world economy, challenging the idea of continued growth. These issues and their interrelationships to oil, energy markets and the challenges this poses for the energy sector are discussed. Oil prices, volatility and shocks are examined from a global perspective linking to fundamentals, short term positions, OPEC reactions and conflicting agendas (such as security and climate change). These and other issues make the interactions between oil markets and the world economy complex and a straightforward policy response, within international energy markets, difficult.

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Oil Energy Markets and the World Economy 2008.pdf 340.16 KB
14th
Oct
2008

Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2008

 Peter Parsons, National Grid Considers the outlook for gas and electricity, and the lessons that have been learnt from the previous winter. This is covered in respect to: Met Office weather forecast and winter temperatures; gas (demand, supply and cold weather analysis); and electricity (assumptions and winter analysis). It is suggested that the basis for gas and electricity demand will be similar to the previous winter. For gas: there is a high dependency on weather; demand uncertainties will continue, due to the impact of gas prices, efficiency measures, LCPD, availability of generating plant; that for supply there is uncertainty for all imports as a result of Norway and its continental priorities and LNG because of global market competition and commissioning of new plant; finally it is recognised that severe, or a prolonged period of, cold weather could necessitate a demand response. For electricity, power generation will be subject to plant availability and the impact of LCPD, although there is an assumption that coal will be used for base load unless prices lead to fuel switching. Also it is anticipated that Read more…

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Winter Gas Outlook National Grid 2008.pdf 328.91 KB
8th
Oct
2008

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