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OPEC Behaviour through the Lenses of the Oil Price Cycle

Bassam Fattouh, OIES Since 1986 the year-on-year change in global oil demand has generally exceeded total non-OPEC supply, with the gap increasingly met through OPEC. This is leading to a gradual decline in spare capacity and upward pressure on oil prices. Analysing OPEC’s response to this shows a cyclical pattern and an asymmetry is also evident, in terms of their objectives in a falling market, when they seek to defend oil prices from falling below some level deemed unacceptable; as well as in a rising  market where OPEC seek to increase output in response to customers’ demand at market determined prices. The mechanism and issues associated with these responses are described. Looking ahead, a range of uncertainties continue to exist, including these asymmetrical responses, as well as issues relating to inventories, spare capacity, and the views between OPEC and oil importers.

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OPEC behaviour through the lenses of the oil price cycle 2009.pdf 1.43 MB
21st
Sep
2009

Outlook for the Global Economy and Oil Demand

Christof Rühl, BP The context of global economic stability and growth are considered in relation to the US, China, Germany, Japan and the UK. The link between fiscal deficits and their threat to stability and growth are examined, showing trends in their percentage of GDP for 2008 to 2010. In respect to oil prices and demand, national and global comparisons suggest that demand is recovering. Drivers for future oil price, in the medium term, relate in part to the interplay between OPEC discipline and demand recovery, with these driving price over the medium term. Analysis of production over time, suggests that without further OPEC action, inventories will remain above the five year range for now.

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Outlook for the global economy and oil demand.pdf 198.63 KB
21st
Sep
2009

Energy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy

Andrew Sentance, Bank of England. Provides an analysis of recovery in terms of global economic growth following the recent financial crisis, considering the role of a new global economy, energy prices and global environmental challenges within this. Key challenges for national economic policymakers are apparent, in respect to global interdependencies, global spillovers and the links between domestic and global, demand, growth and inflation. Globalisation remains important, even though it has resulted in volatility and made national economic management difficult, something national policies need to reflect. In addition, more effective international policy coordination is needed and this should include energy and the environment.

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Energy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy.pdf 249.66 KBEnergy and Environmental Challenges in the New Global Economy Speech.pdf 125.11 KB
21st
Sep
2009

World Energy Outlook 2008

Dr Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency The context for the 2008 WEO includes: soaring energy prices to mid-2008, followed by a collapse; the financial crisis and economic slowdown; the possibility that economic worries will divert attention from strategic energy-security and environmental challenges; a possible supply-crunch once the economy recovers; and questions over what will come out of the COP-15 in Copenhagen. Each of these issues is discussed in respect to possible impacts for global energy demand and supply, set out through the IEA’s Reference Scenario and the climate policy scenarios (550 and 450). Details are provided on world primary energy demand, including the role of coal, oil, gas and electricity, and the prospects for oil and gas supplies. The summary suggests that: current energy trends are unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically; oil will remain the leading energy source but the era of cheap oil is over and the oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change; energy and geopolitics will be increasingly interconnected; the world’s energy system need to be decarbonised; and the financial crisis can plant the seeds for Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2008.pdf 1.14 MB
9th
Feb
2009

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides an overview of the WEO 2007 in respect to the IEA’s: Reference Scenario; Alternative Policy Scenario and 450 Stabilisation Case; as well as a High Growth Scenario (China/India), developed in co-operation with China’s NDRC & ERI, and India’s TERI, to provide an analysis of the impact of China and India on the global economy, energy markets and the environment. Detail on each scenario is provided, with links to China and India set out, and the following conclusions are put forward: the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size; the challenge is for all countries to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system; new policies now under consideration would make a major contribution; the next 10 years are critical (including the pace of capacity additions, the fact that technology will be “locked-in” for decades and there will be a growing tightness in oil and gas markets); the challenge is global, so solutions must also be global.

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World Energy Outlook 2007 China and India Insights.pdf 495.55 KB
5th
Dec
2007

What’s the Value of an Energy Economist?

Peter Davies, BP plc .  12 November 2007 Provides an overview of the role of energy economics, initially considering existing oil resources and the theories on peak oil, and highlighting that oil production not only depends on the resources in place and investment, but also a range of other factors: price; technology; taxes; government policies and global levels of demand. Figures for oil prices, market forces and supply curves are provided. For demand, it is evident that the link between GDP and energy consumption remains intact, but that this varies regionally, highlighted through oil s-curves. In respect to climate change, even though the science is widely accepted, emissions show no sign of slowing and issues for dealing with it include the debate between mitigation and abatement versus adaptation, as well as the range of possible instruments that could be used to reduce emissions. Energy security is considered in terms of normal disruption versus catastrophe and through the role of insurance and stockpiles. From an energy economics perspective, it is suggested that: economic forces matter as much as physical and geological Read more…

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12th
Nov
2007

World Energy Outlook 2006

Dr. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Provides a detailed summary of WEO 2006. In respect to the IEA’s Reference Scenario, projections to 2030 are given for: world primary energy demand; world oil supply; inter-regional natural gas trade; increases in coal demand; energy-related CO2 emissions (by fuel and by region); cumulative investment needs and global upstream oil and gas investment; access to oil reserves; and energy poverty issues. The findings suggest that in the absence of new policies: security of oil supply is threatened (production in non-OPEC countries is set to peak and production will be increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries); gas security is also a growing concern (Europe’s production has already peaked, the US will follow, and import dependence in both regions and other key regions will grow). Also, investment over the next decade will lock in technology that will remain in use for up to 60 years. Whilst the Reference Scenario projects a vulnerable, dirty and expensive global energy system, WEO 2006 also maps out a cleaner, cleverer and more competitive energy future based on new Read more…

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World Energy Outlook 2006.pdf 253.77 KB
26th
Nov
2006

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