Downloads / conference 2010

OECD-Europe Natural Gas Demand: A Structural Time Series Analysis

Mr Zafer Dilaver, Surrey Energy Economics Centre, University of Surrey This research investigates the relationship between OECD-Europe natural gas consumption, GDP and natural gas prices in order to forecast future European natural gas demand.  To achieve this, a natural gas demand function for Europe is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1978 to 2007. This technique, uncovers the underlying energy demand trend for the OECD-Europe arguably should be taken into account in future Europe energy policy decisions. The results suggest that GDP, natural gas prices and an underlying energy demand trend all have a significant role to play in driving European natural gas consumption. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling European natural gas demand. It is therefore found that income elasticity and price elasticities are 0.95 and -0.18 respectively, with an increasing (till 1996) and generally decreasing (since 1996) underlying energy demand trend. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, this study predicts that the European natural gas  consumption will be somewhere between 272,239 and 407,356 ktoe by Read more…

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OECD-Europe Natural Gas Demand: A Structural Time Series Analysis - Poster.pdf 940.47 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

The Carbon Reduction Agenda and UK Nuclear Energy Policy

Mr Jonathan Cooper, University of Central Lancashire The relatively low carbon footprint of nuclear energy development, when compared to fossil fuel alternatives, is widely heralded as one of the main factors influencing the current policy trend in the UK. This paper examines the shift in UK nuclear energy policy in the 21st century from a position opposed to atomic energy expansion to one in its favour. The UK has one of the world’s most robust political commitments to greenhouse gas emissions reduction so the effects of the carbon reduction agenda on nuclear energy policy formulation are found to be significant. Carbon accountancy, however, is inconsistent throughout various government publications on nuclear energy even over the space of just a few years. This can potentially be explained by the relatively recent emergence of carbon accountancy practice. Nevertheless best practice in the use of carbon accountancy in nuclear energy policy must be established to ensure consistency in published government information and therefore enhance public confidence. This paper discusses the effects of the carbon reduction agenda on nuclear policy development through analysis of Read more…

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The Carbon Reduction Agenda and UK Nuclear Energy Policy - Poster.pdf 793.65 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

An innovative model-based approach to CO2 marginal abatement cost

Mr Fabian Kesicki, UCL Energy Institute Policy makers in the UK as in many countries around the world are confronted with the task of how to reduce carbon emissions in a cost-efficient way. For this purpose, marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves have been frequently used to illustrate the economics of climate change mitigation and have contributed to decision making in the context of climate policy. So far decision makers have in general relied on expert-based MAC curves, which assess the abatement cost and the abatement potential of each measure individually. However, such cost curves are not able to capture behavioural, technological, economic and intertemporal interactions. In order to overcome these shortcomings, a new approach to deriving MAC curves is demonstrated, through the combination of an integrated energy system model (UK MARKAL) and index decomposition analysis. This permits one to generate a consistent carbon abatement cost curve with a high degree of technological detail together with behavioural change. Furthermore, this approach allows a structured consideration of uncertainty. To illustrate and validate this new approach a MAC curve is calculated for the Read more…

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22nd
Sep
2010

Prospects For LNG To Contribute To The “20-20-20” Targets As A Transition Fuel

Mr John Holding Given the EU targets – set some 3½ years ago now  – which are to be met by 2020: A reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels 20% of EU energy consumption to come from renewable resources A 20% reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be  achieved by improving energy efficiency - collectively known as the “20-20-20” targets – a question that naturally arises is whether there is a role for LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) as a transition fuel or even as a component of the ultimate solution. LNG as a globally transportable, fungible fuel offers the same attributes as natural gas with the added advantage of freeing the dependence from established fixed gas pipeline supplies – e.g. Russian gas into Europe. But gas is a hydrocarbon, so it contributes to GHGs, however, it is relatively “clean” having the lowest Carbon Coefficient of all naturally occurring hydrocarbons. Consequently there are numerous opportunities for gas – hence LNG – to substitute for dirtier fuels. It appears that LNG could Read more…

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Prospects For LNG To Contribute To The “20-20-20” Targets As A Transition Fuel - Paper.pdf 908.59 KBProspects For LNG To Contribute To The “20-20-20” Targets As A Transition Fuel - Presentation.pdf 402.28 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Effectiveness energy covenants: International evidence

Matthijs De Jong, Erasmus University Rotterdam Several OECD countries use covenants as an important part of their policy to stimulate energy efficiency, carbon reduction and the use of renewable energy. Not much evidence, however, is present about the effectiveness of covenants. Some studies based on micro data find significant effects, others conclude that the effectiveness of covenants is questionable. This study uses yearly (1978-2006) data from 24 OECD countries at the national and sectoral level to analyze the relation between the use of covenants and energy efficiency, carbon dioxide emissions and the use of renewable energy. The database is partly based on public data and partly on a detailed inventory by the authors of the use of covenants in all OECD countries. As also taxes, subsidies and rules are included in the analysis, the study provides also evidence of the relative effectiveness of covenants. It shows that there is very little statistical evidence for the effectiveness of covenants. Many sensitivity analyses, testing all potential relevant assumptions, show that this conclusion is robust. When the covenants are separated in different classes Read more…

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Effectiveness energy covenants: International evidence - Paper.pdf 206.58 KBEffectiveness energy covenants: International evidence - Presentation.pdf 405.49 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Climate policy uncertainty and investment behaviour: Evidence from small hydropower plants

Dr Oecon Kristin Linnerud, Cicero In the coming years, Europe will need more electric power from renewable sources to meet our greenhouse gas and renewable targets. However, market and climate policy uncertainty affecting project cash flows could make investors hesitate to build new capacity unless profitability is significant. This follows from real option theory. Whether investors behave in accordance with this theory, is an empirical question. In Norway there are many good sites for small hydropower. Having access to such a site is viewed as holding a real option to invest. Using data from 225 small hydropower projects we study the investment behaviour of the developers.  More specifically, we test whether investments did actually occur at the optimal point in time predicted by an option-based model. This is tested against the alternative hypothesis: that investments are made when the discounted value of future cash flows are equal to or exceeds investment outlays. Our investment models include two stochastic variables: wholesale electricity prices and green certificate prices. We calculate trigger levels for the sum of these prices, and compare these with Read more…

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Climate policy uncertainty and investment behaviour - Presentation.pdf 756.55 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Funding nuclear power and radioactive waste

Professor Gordon MacKerron, SPRU, University of Sussex The UK Government expects substantial new investment in nuclear power as part of its approach to reducing carbon emissions and improving energy security.  It argues that it will not subsidise nuclear power but that it is taking \’facilitative actions\’ to smooth the path to substantial nuclear investment.  Achieving new nuclear investment will require investors to believe that the balance between risk and expected reward is sufficiently positive for them to commit very large sums.  (If each of the designated ten future nuclear sites were to have one reactor each located on them, the total addition to capacity would be c. 16,000 MW at a capital cost that would almost certainly exceed £20 bn.,  possibly by a large margin.) This paper examines the various commercial risks to which nuclear power is subject and concentrates on the degree of comfort that current plans for radioactive waste management will offer investors.  This analysis will examine both current \’physical\’ plans e.g. the need for operators to provide for around 160 years of on-site storage for spent nuclear Read more…

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Funding nuclear power and radioactive waste - Presentation.pdf 305.39 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Energy efficiency in Liberalised energy markets – implications for a low carbon futur

Nick Eyre University of Oxford Full liberalisation of retail gas and electricity markets in Great Britain was implemented in 1998. At the time, it was recognised that the new market would provide a complex set of new risks, opportunities and incentives for energy efficiency. The most obvious effect – a reduction in prices driven by competitive pressures – would be damaging for energy efficiency; and there would be risks of existing regulatory-driven programmes being discontinued in a competitive market. On the other hand, transparent re-regulation of natural monopolies provided potential new policy levers. And liberalised markets themselves opened new opportunities for market actors to implement energy efficiency. A dozen years on, this paper reviews the actual outcomes. How important was each of these factors? How important has energy market structure and regulation been, compared to other factors, for energy efficiency? The paper seeks to draw some lessons for what might have been done better. And, for a world in which policy makers might be prepared to be intervene more strongly to secure low carbon and energy security goals, it draws Read more…

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Energy efficiency in Liberalised energy markets - Paper.pdf 133.58 KBEnergy efficiency in Liberalised energy markets - Presentation.pdf 214.67 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

Energy in a low carbon economy: new roles for governments and markets

David Newbery, EPEG Cambridge EU climate policy comprises of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to price CO2, the 20-20-20 Directive to create a demand pull for renewables and the EU SET-Plan to double R&D spending. However there are failures with some aspects of these policies, such as the ETS CO2 price being volatile and too low and the Renewables Directive undermining the ETS as it can reduce the price of EUAs and prejudice other forms of low carbon generation (nuclear). UK energy policy seeks to ensure a secure, affordable and efficient, low carbon energy system and is based in part around the policy lead from the EU. However, the UK also needs to consider how policy can support the transition to low carbon and the wider goals for the energy system. This requires the development of certainty to ensure that timely investment comes forward, including: a need for quick clarity on energy policy; the reduction of unnecessary risk; the replacement of ROCs with tendered FiTs; underpinning and guaranteeing the carbon price; and reform of the market and transmission access.

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Energy in a low carbon economy - Presentation.pdf 366.01 KB
22nd
Sep
2010

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