EV uptake in the UK is problematic and EV numbers are still tiny, leading many to be sceptical. However, EV globally are following well-established S curves of demand growth driven by technology, necessity and policy. Financial markets tend to price in S curves early, so we should expect continued enthusiasm, capital availability and innovation. Kingsmill Bond is the New Energy Strategist for Carbon Tracker, and part of the investor outreach team. His role is to communicate to investors the dramatic implications of the energy transition. He believes that this revolution is the most important driver of financial markets and geopolitics in the modern era. Kingsmill has worked as a sell-side City equity analyst and strategist for over 20 years, including for Deutsche Bank, Troika Dialog and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow. He has written strategy on emerging markets and global themes, including the wider significance of the shale revolution. He worked for many years in Russia, which is the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, and deeply impacted by the transition. Kingsmill has an MA in history Read more…190918_Financial-Markets-and-the-S-Curve-of-EV-Demand-Carbon-Tracker.pdf 985.58 KB
Colin Calder, CEO, PassivSystemsUnlocking-the-value-of-consumer-flexibility-v1.3-non-confidential-Calder.pdf 1.88 MB
Philip New, CEO, BP Alternative EnergyBP-Regulation-Risk-and-Platform-Transition-Philip-New.pdf 461.29 KB
Mr Eric Ling, Committee on Climate Change This paper sets out a scenario for decarbonisation of surface transport between 2012 and 2050 consistent with the objective of meeting the UK’s Climate Change Act target of an 80% reduction in GHG emissions across all sectors of the UK economy, at lowest total cost to society. The specific focus is on (1) the technical performance and economic costs of low-carbon transport technologies, including the likely evolution of the costs of electric vehicle batteries, (2) travel patterns and their implications for market uptake of limited-range electric vehicles, and (2) the impact of decarbonisation of surface transport on UK energy demand (fossil fuels, biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen).
Tags: Committee on Climate Change reports, conference 2012, Decarbonising transport, Electric vehicles, Emission reductions, European Energy in a Challenging World, Low carbon technology, surface transportDecarbonising-surface-transport-in-2050.pdf 847.81 KBLing_E_decarbonising_surface_transport.pdf 1.25 MB
James Primrose, BP Biofuels There are a range of factors that impact on the effectiveness of different fuel use in transport, with liquid fuels generally being preferred in respect to their energy density by volume and mass. If done well, biofuels have the potential to significantly reduce GHG emissions compared to gasoline, with savings ranging from around 50% to over 70% for ethanol from wheat, sugar cane and cellulose. The litres of biofuel that can be obtained on a per hectare basis vary between the feedstock used, the area it is grown, and the process used (bioethanol, biodiesel and advance biofuels). Biofuelled vehicles can make significant contributions to decarbonising transport, even compared to electric vehicles, including through fuel blends for conventional, advance, mid hybrid and full hybrid vehicles. Work on Life Cycle Analysis suggests that whilst hybrid and electric vehicles deliver lower GHG emissions, their embedded emissions can be significant, with battery reliability being a key factor. Based on the BP Energy Outlook 2030, the demand for liquid fuels is expected to increase in non-OECD countries and this will be Read more…The Role of Biofuels in Transport 2011.pdf 875.84 KB
Professor Paul Ekins, UCL Bearing in mind that transport is part of the wider energy system, scenarios and models to 2050 can help examine a range of potential developments, which all have implications for the future energy system, including the role of: hybrids; electric vehicles; energy storage; fuel cells; biofuels; infrastructure requirements; and transport behaviours. UK MARKEL runs have considered carbon targets and scenarios, carbon emissions, and sectoral analysis (carbon, demand, transport, fuel, biofuels), suggesting that fuels and technologies are very sensitive to a range of assumptions (carbon, technology costs, discount rates and timescale). Consideration of the role for accelerated technology development (ATD) of hydrogen and fuel cells, suggests a need for more public policy attention, taking account of factors such as which technologies to support and to what extent, the need to consider infrastructure requirements and the impact of behaviour and patterns of mobility. Preliminary results suggest that: transport technology choices are sensitive to assumed patterns of demand and that changes in the transport sector have significant impacts on the overall energy system; there are trade-offs between biofuels and Read more…Transport 2050 the potential role of hydrogen 2011.pdf 1 MB